Friday, December 28, 2012

The Fall of Obama

All the indicators are now pointing to President Obama approaching a peak of monumental scale with a massive decline (in the "Obama brand") to follow in the aftermath. The peak appears to be imminent if not already upon us. The DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 are also indicating a peak of monumental size is in the making as well as Primary wave [A] up (2009 - 2012) has run its course with a massive wedge collapse in progress.

Obama's approval rating is currently at 54% (and peaking), having rose from 48% just before the 2012 elections, but still forming a lower high relative to the May 2011 peak in which Obama's approval rating reached a high of 61%. The lower high is in play in spite of the markets putting in a higher high relative to May 2011.

A few days ago, President Obama was named "Person of the Year" on Time Magazine and appeared on the magazine cover. The magazine cover picture can be seen here. The Magazine Cover Indicator is a peaking signal --- it is an indication that the "Obama brand" is approaching a peak of massive scale and a multi-year decline is imminent.

Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Magazine Cover Indicator event labelled:

Notice that the event occurred close to the peak of Minute wave [b] up within a larger double zigzag structure. Since the event, the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 closed down roughly 2% for the week with the DJIA declining 158 points earlier today.

The primary count still favors the double zigzag structure for the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016), with the double combination (expanded flat - x wave - zigzag) structure being the alternate scenario. The proposed Minute wave [b] within Minor wave W has retraced 90% of the proposed Minute wave [a] in the Wilshire 5000, but still well short of the 90% threshold for the DJIA and the S&P 500.

The implication of a wedge collapse in the stock market is a fast decline in social mood. With social mood going south fast, approval ratings will also take a big hit with Obama's approval rating possibly falling below 30% by June 2013. On the short term, the United States is facing a "fiscal cliff crisis" with President Obama and John Boehner desperately hoping to reach a deal on taxes and spending before the clock expires. The United States is also facing a "debt ceiling crisis" as well with the $16.4 trillion debt limit on the verge of being hit (if not already there) with the Treasury Department using accounting maneuvers to buy time for Congress to act on raising the debt ceiling. A rapid increase in bearish social mood due to a wedge collapse is expected to result in increasing strife and discord between President Obama and John Boehner with a dangerous game of chicken involving the US economy once again in play. The best case scenario is for the can known as the "Bush Tax Cuts" to get kicked down the road once again. The worst case scenario is for the United States to actually go off the fiscal cliff due to strife and discord in the political arena with austerity measures in the form of tax increases and spending cuts to go into effect as soon as we enter the year 2013. It is possible that going off the fiscal cliff (if it were to happen) will lead to another credit rating downgrade on US government debt as we approach the climax of Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down on June 2013.

In spite of the fiscal cliff drama and the debt ceiling about to be hit, the American populace is still very optimistic about Obama's accomplishments in the years ahead, with many already comparing Obama to FDR:

1 -- FDR vs Obama -- "Obama invokes FDR in his convention speech".  The American populace already see Obama as a parallel of FDR.

2 -- Politico -- "Obama Channels Teddy Roosevelt". Even centrist Republicans are displaying optimism on Obama's future legacy. This shows that the bullish optimism is broad based and not confined to the liberal factions in the American populace.

3 -- Suite 101 -- "Comparing Barack Obama to Franklin D Roosevelt". Even in early 2009 with the climax of Cycle wave w (2000 - 2009) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042) unfolding, people were still very optimistic that Obama would be the new FDR.

Comparisons to FDR are a product of linear extrapolation. With the 2012 election completed with Obama winning a second term, just about everyone is making large extrapolation leaps with the prediction that Obama will have an FDR type of legacy in 2017. The tendency for large extrapolation leaps is yet another peaking signal, along side the "Magazine Cover Indicator".

The "Obama brand" is expected to collapse in the coming years as Primary wave [B] (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) unfolds with the peak about to be reached before the multi-year decline starts. During the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A), Obama's approval rating is expected to fall to the 28% to 32% range by June 2013. During Intermediate wave (B) up, which should unfold from June 2013 to June 2014, Obama's approval rating will get a sizable bounce, but put in a lower high (low to mid 40s approval rating) relative to the current approval rating peak of 54%. During Intermediate wave (C) down from June 2014 to June 2016, markets are expected to embark on a massive waterfall decline. With Obama's approval rating falling to the low 20s by 2016, bearish social mood is expected to result in the GOP attempting to get Obama impeached starting in 2015 -- the impeachment is expected to be successful in the House, but expected to fail in the Senate (Democrats will be united in keeping Obama in power). Obama's approval rating could easily fall below 20% by the time the 2016 election takes place.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Hard Times, Not End Times

As we approach the fateful date, December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia continues to grow. With social mood going south again with the retracement of the 2 year bearish rising wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 in progress, the doomsday phobia is likely to grow more and more pervasive as we go through the last few days before reaching December 21, 2012.

Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, showing the retracement of the rising bearish wedge in progress:

The primary count is that the wedge collapse is Intermediate wave (A) down of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) with the wedge collapse unfolding as a double zigzag. There are other possibilities, of course, on how the wedge collapse could unfold, as it could also unfold as a zigzag, triple zigzag, or even a double combination structure (expanded flat -- x wave -- zigzag). The double combination scenario would involve the markets putting in a marginal new high (the rally off the November 2012 low point is clearly corrective) before commencing lower to complete Minor wave W down as an expanded flat, which would be followed by Minor wave X (any corrective pattern) and then Minor wave Y down unfolding as a zigzag.

Here is a chart showing the wedge collapse in detail:

Markets may be able to find support at the area shown by the red box. The support level is very significant because it is the level associated with the most recent Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. Losing this level as support is considered bearish, so the markets are expected to hold the level (11000 - 11250) as support for at least a short time. However, the larger bear market trend will be in control, so the support level is expected to be lost quickly as Minor wave Y of the double zigzag unfolds, which would then be followed by a full retracement of the 2 year rising bearish wedge a short time later.

As we approach December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia is already in full swing, of course augmented by social mood going south at Primary degree within a much larger bear market. In spite of NASA debunking the 2012 doomsday scenario, there are still at least 1 out of every 10 people that believe that the world is ending just days from now.

Here is a Google Trends chart from 2004 to present with the search term "2012 apocalypse"

Here is a chart showing the trend in the last 90 days (the trend is up):

Bear markets bring hard times for humanity. But there is a great deal of difference between hard times and end times. The Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000 is going to result in hard times for many people, but it certainly won't result in the end of the world or the end of human civilization. People were able to weather through the last bear market of comparable magnitude (Grand Supercycle wave [II] down (1720 - 1784)) and human civilization was never in danger of coming to its end back then. We will still be here in 2013, and for that matter, human civilization will still be around when the bear market ends in 2118.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Skyscraper Indicator Signals a Top

For the third time in less than 15 years, the Skyscraper Indicator is issuing a peaking signal. The indicator was pioneered in January 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, research director of Dresdner Klienwort Wasserstein,  showing that the world's tallest buildings have risen on the eve of economic downturns.

In the last 15 years, the skyscraper indicator signaled a top in 1997-1999, 2007, and now. A chart of the DJIA of the last 15 years with the important events labelled puts it in perspective:

As the chart indicates, the Petronus Towers in Malaysia were built in 1997 with a height of 1461 ft (448 meters), indicating that a large degree peak was imminent. The completion of the towers was quickly followed by the Asian Financial Crisis, a small taste of the economic major depression that would follow less than 3 years later. Just 2 years later, an even larger building, the Taipei 101 in Taiwan was built, soaring 1671 ft (512 meters) high. The completion of the Taipei 101 was closely followed by the end of the Grand Supercycle degree advance that started in 1784 and the beginning of the economic major depression, the "Crisis of the Western World".

A long topping process has been in progress since the onset of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market, with exuberant optimism stubbornly holding its ground. After the initial decline following the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000, the DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 rallied to new highs in 2007. Just before the 2007 peak was reached, a skyscraper of unprecedented height started to take shape in Dubai as the Burj Khilifa rose 2717 feet (833 meters) into the sky upon completion. Shortly after the building was completed, the "Panic of 2008" struck the western world. The "Panic of 2008" climaxed in March 2009 at the end of the first phase of "The Great Deflation".

As we entered the second phase of "The Great Deflation" in March 2009, exuberant optimism returned within a year. Three years into the bear market rally, at the top of Primary wave [A] of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021), China is planning to build the world's tallest skyscraper in just 90 days (!). The new building, Sky City, is planned to be 220 stories, rise 2749 feet (838 meters) high, and be completed around March 2013.  As with the other two peaks, the construction of the building is expected to herald a multi-year decline in the stock market as well as a multi-year decline in the job market, which will be Primary wave [B] of Cycle wave x.

The second phase of "The Great Deflation" is expected to end in 2021, which would be the end of Primary wave [C] (2016-2021) of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up. The second phase could easily climax with nations, states, cities, and even corporations, endeavoring to build skyscrapers well over 3000 feet (920 meters) tall just before the onset of the third phase of "The Great Deflation", Cycle wave y (2021 - 2042), in which a massive deflationary collapse unfolds in full force.

The Skyscraper Indicator has proven to be a very strong predictor of impending economic downturns, going all the way back to the 1800s. Here is a longer term chart of the DJIA showing the correlation between the building of skyscrapers and stock market peaks:

As shown in the chart above, when the Skyscraper Indicator issues a peaking signal, the peak is Cycle degree or higher, with the accompanying economic downturn being a major recession or larger. Due to the 21 year topping process that has been playing out since the onset of the bear market in 2000, social mood has remained very optimistic. With the construction of a massive skyscraper in China on the table, the indicator is issuing a peaking signal and another down-trend is imminent if not already in progress.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

The Next Phase of the Apple Bubble

The next phase of the "Apple Bubble" has commenced. After peaking at $704 a share in late September 2012 and completing the ending diagonal that started in late May 2012, the retracement of the ending diagonal is in progress. The retracement of the ending diagonal is unfolding quite fast with two important support levels already taken out on the way down. In spite of the fast decline, there is a case to be made that the "Apple Bubble" did not burst and that new highs will be reached in the future.

Here is a close-up chart of Apple, showing the ending diagonal and the retracement in progress:

The first important support level that was broken after the peak was reached is the lower trend channel associated with Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (3) up. A clean break through the lower trend channel was the first sign of a trend change at Minor degree from up to down. The second important support level that was broken is the lower wedge line associated with the ending diagonal. Notice the acceleration in selling pressure that took place after the lower wedge line was broken -- this is very indicative of a wedge collapse in progress.

A close examination of the structure of the decline from the peak shows that the structure is corrective. This means that the "Apple Bubble" has not burst yet, and the bursting event is still in the future. The wedge collapse is unfolding as a double zigzag, meaning that it would be wave A of a triangle or (much more likely) an expanded flat. The structure is most likely Minor wave A of a larger expanded flat. Within Minor wave A, Minute waves [w] and [x] are completed as per the preferred count, and the second zigzag, Minute wave [y], is still unfolding. A relationship of Minute wave [y] = 2.618 * Minute wave [w] would give a downside target of 452 for the end of Minor wave A. The ideal time for the end of the wedge collapse is December 4, 2012, which would make the time needed to complete the wedge collapse half of the time needed to construct the ending diagonal.

The larger picture is that Intermediate wave (4) down is in progress, unfolding as an expanded flat, which would then be followed by a five wave advance, Intermediate wave (5) up, which would also end the advance at Primary and Cycle degree as well. Here is a chart of Apple updating the larger picture:

The final stage of the "Apple Bubble" should start around June 2013 and last for 1 year, ending around June 2014. A final upside target of $875 to $1000 a share at the peak of the bubble is still in play. Once the final stage of the bubble is completed, the bubble will burst. The ripple effect from the bursting of the "Apple Bubble" will be global -- Just as the South Sea Company was a global bellwether in 1720, Apple is a global bellwether now, so the bursting of the bubble will result in financial fallout on a global scale, including the implosion of the job market throughout the Western World. The unraveling of the bubble should be quite swift, with the company's stock losing perhaps 90% of its value by June 2016.

The final stage of the "Apple Bubble" will play a central role in fueling a powerful rally in the stock market from June 2013 to June 2014, propelling the S&P 500 from 925 to 1550 and the DJIA from 9300 to 14400, as well as a robust wave 2 bounce in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Once the "Apple Bubble" bursts, the rally will unravel very fast, dropping the DJIA down to 5500 and the S&P 500 to around 525 by June 2016.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Frankenstorm, the Next Harbinger of Climate Change

All eyes have been focused on this year's 100 year storm known as Hurricane Sandy, which peaked at Category 2 strength before making landfall in New Jersey with 80 mph winds. The hurricane has been labelled as "Frankenstorm" by a number of people, seeing the storm as a product of warmer than usual water off the Atlantic coast and man-made global warming that is just now starting to take effect.

The hurricane has already moved inland and the damage from the storm is only just now starting to become apparent. In many areas, the damage is one for the record books:

1 -- The storm left 8.6 million people without power, mostly in New Jersey and New York.

2 -- New York City went dark with the lights out in Manhattan as storm surges reach a record 13.88 feet with many downtown streets flooded before receding.

3 -- Gasoline shortages have come up in New Jersey in the aftermath of the storm.

4 -- Property damage is already estimated to be $20 billion or more with more surveying of the aftermath still taking place. The numbers could be much higher, in the order of $50 billion, once the dust settles. This would make Hurricane Sandy one of the most expensive natural disasters in US history.

5 -- The NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges were closed for 2 days, the first 2 day closure due to weather since 1888. Trading resumed today with markets mostly trading in a narrow range.

The storm was over 1000 miles in diameter at its peak with hurricane force winds as far as 175 miles from the center and tropical force winds as far as 500 miles from the center. Some areas in West Virginia received up to 3 feet of snow, Maryland was hit by a massive blizzard and even the Great Lakes area was affected with winds as high as 60 mph in Chicago with waves over 30 feet high. This is the second year in a row that the northern Atlantic coast was hit with hurricane force winds (see this post about Hurricane Irene and its aftermath last year). Before Hurricane Irene, one would have to go all the way back to 1954 to find a comparable event, when Hurricane Hazel struck the same region of the Atlantic coast. Going even farther back, no comparable event is found until 1888, when the Great Blizzard of 1888 struck.

Having the same area hit by a 100 year storm 2 years in a row can only be due to the effects of man made climate change that is now starting to kick in as a result of the abuse of fossil fuels that has been taking place for many decades. Even with the evidence mounting that man made global warming is for real, there is still evidence that people in the political, business, and corporate world are still in denial (and will be for many more decades):

1 -- The Obama Administration continues pushing forward with the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, with many protesters arrested. The arrest of people protesting the Keystone XL project was taken to the next level with the arrest of Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, who has been critical of both Obama and Romney on energy policy.

2 -- Lobbyists for the coal industry go on a massive ad buying spree advertising the benefits of coal exports with much of the coal slated to enter Chinese markets. The result is greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere at an accelerated clip.

3 -- The mainstream media continues to be in denial over the reality of man made climate change, as climate change is not even brought up at all even as news coverage on the storm and its aftermath continue around the clock. The same is true with newspaper coverage in which there is a lot of coverage on the storm, but no mention of climate change.

4 -- Oil companies are in full denial over the reality of climate change as evidenced by an oil capacity construction boom in which efforts are under way to increase oil production capacity to 110 million barrels a day by 2020. The increased oil production capacity is projected to raise the planet's average temperature by as much as 8 degrees Celsius.

 During bull markets (when social mood is trending positive), governments have no problem coming up with the money to rebuild in the aftermath of disaster and helping affected communities get back on their feet. It is another matter when a long term bear market is unfolding. During long term bear markets, governments are constrained by budget cuts, tax revenue drying up, and the general mindset that comes with negative social mood, namely, limits and conservation. It is especially the case when a deflationary collapse is unfolding in full force. We are already getting a taste of the implications of trying to rebuild communities affected by natural disaster during a long term bear market.

Last year, in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, Rep. Ron Paul was quoted as saying "there is no magic with FEMA" and House Rep. Eric Cantor wanted the cost of disaster relief to be offset with cuts elsewhere. At that point, I had made a forecast concerning FEMA:

It would not at all be farfetched if FEMA were abolished altogether in 2017 during the Bachmann Administration Period under the pretense of balancing the budget.

There is already evidence that this forecast is on track to being fulfilled in 2017. Mitt Romney is now on record for wanting to cut FEMA out of federal spending, sending the responsibility of disaster relief to the states, under the pretense of balancing the budget, having made the plan known during a GOP Primary debate. Mitt Romney labelled spending on disaster relief as "immoral" during the debate, saying that deficit reduction and debt reduction have higher priority. Austerity measures that are set to kick in due to the "fiscal cliff" will also compromise FEMA's ability to respond to natural disasters with a loss of $878 million in annual funding in the pipeline.

The ability of government to respond to natural disasters is an issue that people should be thinking about, considering that one of the implications of "The Great Deflation" is budget cuts at all levels of government. In particular, if a major hurricane were to strike a populated area during the third phase of "The Great Deflation" (Cycle wave y down (2021 - 2042) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042)), the affected areas will very likely be on their own with power remaining shut down for a number of years and rebuilding efforts in the affected areas delayed for years (if not a decade or more) due to austerity measures in play during that time.

On the longer term, Hurricane Sandy is a harbinger of the effects of climate change that will play out during "The Great Tribulation" (Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118)). The worst of man made global warming is very likely to unfold during that time, possibly with the Atlantic coast hit with hurricanes of Category 5+ on an annual basis. There is already recognition among scientists that man made global warming is for real. It will be a very long time before people in the political, business, and corporate world, along with the mainstream media, finally come to a recognition that man made global warming is for real -- that point should occur when the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) is reached and result in the "Global Warming Panic". By then, the full force of the effects of climate change will already be playing out throughout the world.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Four More Years of Obama

With all three of the presidential debates completed, the election is looking to be a close contest. The closest parallel to the 2012 presidential election is the 2004 presidential election, in which the incumbent of that time, Bush 43, won a second term by a narrow margin.

From the perspective of social mood, bear markets normally result in incumbents getting thrown out of office by a landslide, as was the case with Herbert Hoover in the 1932 presidential election at the low of Supercycle wave (IV) down and Martin Van Buren in 1840 during Supercycle wave (II) down (1835 - 1859).

The 2012 presidential election, however, is taking place in a mixed mood environment, resulting from a very large bear market rally off the March 2009 low. It was the same way in the 2004 presidential election as well, with a 5 year bear market rally, Primary wave [B] up (2002 - 2007) of Cycle wave w down (2000 - 2009) with a mixed mood environment in play.

In a mixed mood environment, the candidate with the best ground game and the highest level of organizational strength will be the one that wins. George W. Bush (Bush 43) won a second term by a narrow margin in 2004. Bush 43 had a stronger ground game than John Kerry did due in part to the Koch-ALEC cabal and the organization of the religious right. In the current presidential election, President Obama is on course to win a second term by a narrow margin. Unlike the 2008 election in which Obama rode a massive wave of voter anger (from the "Panic of 2008") all the way to the White House, the 2012 election will prove to be much harder and will take a great amount of effort to win. President Obama's superior organizational strength is what will allow him to win a second term in the midst of a mixed mood environment.

The bear market rally off the March 2009 low appears to be incomplete and needs one more five wave rally to complete the structure. The rally should unfold through election day and peak about a third of the way into November 2012, as the chart below illustrates:

The chart above shows Minor wave 5 of the 2 year bearish rising wedge, Intermediate wave (C), that started in June 2010. Minor wave 5 is unfolding as a triple zigzag with the last part of the third zigzag still to come. The upside target is 1484 for the S&P 500 and 13750 for the DJIA.

In the midst of the mixed mood environment are undercurrents of bearish social mood, which is most clearly seen in the DJIA / gold ratio. As the chart below shows, the DJIA in terms of real money is in a very clear down-trend with a series of lower lows and lower highs throughout the Obama Administration Period so far:

The decline in the DJIA / gold ratio also explains why Obama's approval rating displayed a long term down-trend. In addition, the most recent polls are painting a mixed picture, with some polls putting Obama ahead and some putting Romney ahead.

Intrade is currently projecting a 62% chance that Obama will win a second term, although some such as Nate Silver is currently projecting a 73% chance that Obama will win. It will be a close election, with Mitt Romney reaching 250+ electoral votes (it could possibly go as high as 260), but California, Oregon, and Washington will put Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win once voting is completed in those three states.

The last two cases of a president winning a second term during a bear market rally was Bush 43 in the 2004 election and Richard Nixon winning a second term in 1972 with the mixed mood environment in play as a result of Primary wave [D] up of a Cycle degree triangle, Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974). Obama is on course to win a second term on November 6, 2012.

It is perhaps instructive to look back and realize that both Bush 43 and Nixon declined in popularity during their second term. Bush 43 saw his approval rating plunge to 25% in the wake of the "Panic of 2008" and Richard Nixon was pressured out of office less than 2 years later due to scandal. If the forecast for a Primary degree decline from 2012 to 2016 is correct, than Obama will face the same fate as Bush 43 with social mood becoming increasingly bearish, culminating in a wave of voter anger that makes conditions ripe for someone like Michele Bachmann or Paul Ryan to rise to power as the next president of the United States in the 2016 election.

President Obama's approval rating will likely plunge soon after the elections taking place. In the midst of all the talk about a "fiscal cliff" in economic policy that has been dubbed "Taxmageddon" and is set to be reached in January 2013, there is another cliff that we are approaching, and that is the end of a 2 year rising bearish wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000. The resolution of the wedge pattern is expected to be relatively swift with the full retracement of the wedge expected to be completed in June 2013.

Here is a chart of the wedge and the drop-off that follows:

Labelled on the chart is President Obama's approval rating at important junctures. At the May 2011 high, when the DJIA reached 12876, President Obama's approval rating briefly reached 61% in the aftermath of the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Just 5 months later, at the low of Minor wave 2 down within the larger wedge, the United States was downgraded by Standard and Poors from AAA to AA+, and Obama's approval rating reached a low of 38%. As the peak of the bear market rally approaches, Obama's approval rating has only partially rebounded from the October 2011 low and is currently at 48%.

The expectation is for Obama's approval rating to take a massive plunge downward as the retracement of the rising bearish wedge unfolds. The forecast is for Obama's approval rating to fall to a low of 28% to 32% by June 2013. The sudden decline in social mood starting in mid November 2012 points to a scenario where there is no resolution on the "fiscal cliff" at all due to strife and discord between Obama, John Boehner, Harry Reid, and Mitch McConnell, which could result in another downgrade on the credit rating of the United States.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Journey to the (Primary Degree) Peak

There are now a number of compelling signs that a Primary degree top has already put in or will be registered in the very near future. Both the internal market indicators and the social mood indicators are suggesting that a peak has already happened or will shortly. The S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 reached new 2012 highs, exceeding the April / May 2012 highs. The DJIA has yet to confirm the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 higher, but given the tendency for the three indexes to have "similar wave paths", it is quite likely that the DJIA will confirm the other two indexes higher.

The longer term outlook for the 2009 - 2021 period is still intact, with Supercycle wave (a) (2000 - 2042) down unfolding as a complex W - X - Y structure and Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up in progress.

The most likely wave count for the S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and most likely the DJIA as well, is a 3 year zigzag with an ending diagonal for Intermediate wave (C), as the previous main count was invalidated with a new 2012 high in the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000. Here is a chart showing the revised wave count in the context of the larger Cycle wave x structure in the S&P 500:

The revised wave count still works within the larger Cycle degree structure, with Primary wave [W] up (nearing its end) lasting 3 years, which would then be followed by Primary wave [X] down from 2012 to 2016, lasting 4 years, then Primary wave [Y] up from 2016 to 2021, lasting 5 years. Cycle wave x would then be a complex (zigzag - double zigzag - expanded flat) structure. 4 years is enough time for the DJIA to fall from 13300 to 5500 and for the S&P 500 to fall from 1430+ to 550, and each of the Primary degree sub-waves that compose Cycle wave x are reasonably comparable to each other in price movement and duration, as well as Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) being reasonably comparable to Cycle wave w (2000 - 2009) in duration.

However, the previous main count is still working very well for the NYSE Composite as well as the DAX and the FTSE 100. Along side the Wilshire 5000, the NYSE Composite is a market index composed of a large cross-section of corporations and businesses and thus is a broad measure of social mood. The NYSE Composite is in a bearish intra-market divergence with the Wilshire 5000 and the S&P 500, indicating a fractured market.

Here is a chart of the NYSE Composite from 2005 to 2021:

Upside momentum is clearly on the decline, not only with bearish intra-market divergences taking place (the 2012 high in the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 is not confirmed by the NYSE Composite, the Transports, the DAX, the CAC-40, or the FTSE 100), but the rally is being carried by fewer stocks. A substantial part of the recent rally in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 can be attributed to the "Apple Bubble" as well as a social media bubble that is now bursting with the decline of Facebook in progress.

There are also a number of social mood indicators that are signalling a significant top in the markets:

1 -- The first "Magazine Cover Indicator" event took place with "Dow 15000" appearing on the February 13, 2012 cover of Barron's magazine. With the rally from the March 2009 lows losing much of its momentum and with bullish sentiment already in the stratosphere, this event is a significant sell signal for the markets.

2 -- In early August 2012, Mitt Romney called for more bull market in the economy and the job market. This is another very strong peaking signal as politicians are always the last people to act on a trend, and for that matter, the last people to extrapolate a trend. This event is in the same league as the Federal Reserve Chairman saying that "rates will remain low through 2014".

3 -- The second "Magazine Cover Indicator" event took place with the bull market portrayed as unstoppable and invincible on the September 3, 2012 cover of Barron's magazine. Now that everyone is convinced that the "bull market" is unstoppable, the uptrend in the markets from the March 2009 lows is fully played out and ripe for a reversal.

4 -- Just three days later, on September 6, 2012, Vice President Joe Biden declared that "America has turned the corner" on the job market and the economy, saying that "America's best days are ahead of us". This is yet another instance of politicians extrapolating a trend and "predicting the present". Unlike Mitt Romney, Joe Biden has virtually no business experience, so this event is even more significant. The job creation trend has played out for a long enough time that it has become intuitive even for politicians to extrapolate the trend.  America's best days are indeed ahead of us, but those days won't come until the Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000, and the associated major depression in the economy, is completed.

The journey to the top of the (Primary degree) peak in the markets have been marked by extreme bullishness, as well as magazine cover indicator events and politicians calling for more bull market in the economy and job market, thereby extrapolating a trend by "predicting the present". These events, along with bearish intra-market divergences and declining momentum, all point to a major reversal ahead.

Friday, August 31, 2012

The Rise of Paul Ryan

This is an update to an earlier post, "Update on the Road to Plutocracy", in which the forecast for a full blown plutocracy in the United States is slowly being fulfilled as the stage continues to be set behind the scenes. In August 11, 2012, Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate. The significance of the event, as with so many cases, is not fully recognized by most people. The key to the larger picture is that Paul Ryan is a member of the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and is closely connected with the Koch Brothers (and Koch Industries).

Paul Ryan's connection with Koch Industries and ALEC is very significant, as the Koch-ALEC cabal is identified as the engine that will drive the future plutocracy in the United States starting in 2042. This also does not conflict with the idea of a Bachmann Administration Period, which is forecast to span from 2017 to 2024. While Michele Bachmann has not been confirmed to be a member of ALEC, her platform is virtually identical to Paul Ryan's as far as economic policy is concerned. This brings about the possibility of Ryan / Bachmann or Bachmann / Ryan for the 2016 presidential election in which bearish social mood is guaranteed to result in the Democratic Party taking massive losses during the 2016 elections to a comparable (if not even larger) degree to the losses that the GOP sustained in the 2008 election and either Michele Bachmann or Paul Ryan as the next president of the United States.

The forecast for a plutocracy is based on the characteristic of a B wave within a larger bear market of Supercycle degree and above, in which B waves are technically weak with weak fundamentals. Just as fifth waves are weaker than third waves by every measure, B waves are weaker than fifth waves by every measure. A full blown plutocracy is consistent with the expected character of Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] (2000 - 2118), including the fact that only a small cross section of the populace will take part in the return to prosperity in the United States after "The Great Deflation" ends in 2042.

We continue to see evidence of a coming plutocracy in the United States, as new developments illustrate:

1 -- The middle class continues to decline with most people in that group substantially worse off than they were a decade ago.

2 -  The destruction of living wage jobs and family wage jobs continues unabated, with the last of the family wage jobs projected to be gone by 2015 and the last of the living wage jobs projected to be gone by 2020.

3 -- In spite of the phony "recovery" in the job market, corporations and businesses are not really putting in much effort in hiring more workers. This is consistent with the expectation of increasing conservatism due to a bearish social mood that is unfolding.

4 -- Poverty continues to proliferate, with the official poverty rate reaching the highest point since the 1960s. The actual poverty rate in the United States is likely around 35% to 40%. Expect the poverty rate to reach much higher levels by the time the plutocracy arrives in 2042.

5 -- As of 2011, 40% of households in the United States were living paycheck to paycheck. At the start of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market, the figure was 31%. There is no doubt that the bear market continues to have an effect on the economy, akin to a house that is prettied up with new paint on the outside even as the foundation of the house continues to rot.

The rise of Paul Ryan in the political arena is another indication of the coming plutocracy, In 2016, bearish social mood associated with Primary wave [X] down 2011/2012 - 2016) within Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) will make conditions ripe for Paul Ryan to ascend to the White House in 2017 either as VP or President.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Inclusionism Breaks New Ground

As a testimony of social mood remaining at historically bullish levels in spite of 12 years of bear market (so far), we witnessed inclusionism (characteristic of bullish social mood) break new ground with Russia joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) after 18 years of negotiations.  The significance of the event won't be recognized by most people, but it is a very significant event from a socionomic perspective. This type of event, along with Mitt Romney calling for more bull market in the economy and job market (see this post), could easily be a peaking signal with a large degree reversal just around the corner.

When inclusionism breaks ground in previously unreachable areas, it is a very strong peaking signal. The last event of this type was Bulgaria and Romania joining the European Union in 2007 just before Primary wave [B] of Cycle wave w down (2000 - 2009) ended in October 2007. It is also notable that there was a frenzied eastward expansion of the European Union from 2004 to 2007 with 10 nations added to the union during the period.

Even though there has been a lot of speculation amongst the (euro) bears that the European Union will break up in the future, there is a strong case to be made that the expansion of the EU could continue all the way into 2021, the peak of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up, with the break up (due to nations leaving the EU) to take place during Cycle wave y (2021 - 2042) of Supercycle wave (a) (2000 - 2042) down. The last part of Cycle wave x up (likely to be Primary wave [Y] up (2016 - 2021)) could feature a last frenzied expansion of the European Union before "The Great Deflation" unfolds in full force in 2021. Indeed, the stage is already being set for a last period of frenzied expansion starting with Croatia set to join the European Union in July 2013 and several other nations recognized as potential candidates to join the EU in the future.

The addition of Russia into the WTO is occurring as Primary wave [W] up is nearing a peak (current wave count was invalidated in the S&P 500, but still valid for the DJIA and Wilshire 5000. New charts coming in the very near future), with Primary wave [X] down to shortly follow the peak.

The European Union is expected to come under a lot of stress during Primary wave [X] (~2012 to 2016) down of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up with perhaps a lot of speculation that Greece, Spain, Italy, or Portugal leaving the European Union during that time. When Primary wave [Y] (2016 - 2021) up of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up starts, the European Union is expected to go on a frenzied expansion with inclusionism reaching levels regarded as unreachable today. There are five nations that are even now recognized as candidates for inclusion into the European Union -- Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey. In addition, Albania is in the process of applying for membership into the EU. From the socionomic perspecive, the most likely scenario is for Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, and Albania to gain membership in the European Union during the 2019 - 2021 time frame as the last part of the Cycle degree advance in social mood unfolds.

The Euro, the currency of the European Union, is expected to be a fully functioning currency during the rest of the "extend and pretend" phase (the second phase of "The Great Deflation"), with the fate of the currency expected to face very tough challenges during the third phase of "The Great Deflation" during the 2021 - 2042 time frame.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Update on the Apple Bubble

This is an update on the February 2012 blog entry on the Apple bubble, in which a case was made for Apple being a parallel of the South Sea Company. The Apple bubble is still in progress in spite of a decline that unfolded earlier this year. Investors are still very bullish on Apple as illustrated by a number of articles such as this one that is calling for more upside in Apple's stock price.

There was a very strong reason to not call a long term top on Apple even though the rally appeared to have played out. Here is an intermediate term chart of Apple to illustrate the point:

Apple's high for the year occurred in April 2012 before the decline started to unfold. The decline, now identified as Minute wave [iv], unfolded as a zigzag and reaching its low point in late May 2012 before resuming higher. There is already some recognition that Apple is a bubble, yet many people have attempted to call a long term top in Apple's stock, saying that the bubble has popped (the top calling has been unfolding since 2008!):

1 -- Yahoo news -- Apple bubble already starting to burst (August 18, 2008).

2 -- Seeking Alpha -- The Apple Bubble is ready to burst  (November 29, 2011).

3 -- Forbes -- Five signs that Apple is a bubble (April 23, 2012).

Bubbles always end in a bust, but they also seem to last longer than many people think possible. After the decline earlier this year, the stock is on the rise again. However, it is quite obvious that the rally lacks the impulsiveness of earlier rallies that propelled the company's stock to $600 a share earlier this year. The rally from the late May 2012 low appears to be unfolding as an expanding ending diagonal with the last part of the rally in progress. The target for the rally is $664 a share to be hit within the next few weeks before a sharp sell-off commences with the advent of Intermediate wave (4) down.

Here is a longer term chart of Apple, showing how the rest of the Apple bubble may play out:

The blue box shown on the chart is the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree, which would be around $300 to $375 a share. This follows a guideline that fourth waves go into the price territory of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. A sideways pattern for the coming Intermediate wave (4) down is in the forecast, most likely a flat, which should take around a year to play out.

As Intermediate wave (4) down climaxes in around June 2013, Apple could either come out with (or announce the unveiling of) an entirely new innovative product or make a move to acquire a large social media company. Either one could be seen as a massive game changer and give investors a reason to go on a bullish frenzy with the mainstream media along for the final ride up. The final stage of the Apple bubble will unfold during Intermediate wave (5) up, unfolding as an epic blow-off top that takes the company's stock as high as $875 to $1000 a share by June 2014. As a precursor to the coming blow-off top, there are already at least 216 hedge funds that have Apple in their portfolios, which is indicating a very high level of bullishness on Apple stock.

This chart shows the final Primary degree advance in Apple stock:

The final Primary degree advance will have lasted 5 years, from 2009 to 2014. Notice that Intermediate wave (2) down in April 2010 was very brief and very sharp, while Intermediate wave (4) down, as a guideline of alternation, is likely to have a much longer duration and unfold as a flat (a sideways pattern).

The bursting of the Apple bubble will have widespread implications as the stock is a component of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The aftermath of the bursting of the Apple bubble is expected to result in a massive decline in the stock market in general from 2014 to 2016 with the longer term aftermath persisting for years if not decades. The effects of the Apple bubble bursting will first be felt in the technological sector with many tech jobs being purged off the map in the 2014 - 2016 time frame, which will then have a ripple effect on other areas of the economy and job market.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Trend Extrapolation in Politics

On Saturday, August 4, 2012, an event that is considered very significant from a socionomic perspective has taken place. Most people will not recognize the significance of the event as it will be seen as just one more day of speeches by politicians made in an effort to influence the November 2012 election.

One day after the jobs report was released for July 2012, Mitt Romney made a bullish comment on the job market, saying that "America is poised to take off economically". This event is in the same league as the Federal Reserve Chairman saying that "rates will remain low until 2014.". What we saw is politicians extrapolating a trend that has been unfolding for over 2 years. Politicians are always the last people to act on a trend, and for that matter, the last people to extrapolate a trend. When a trend becomes so obvious that it becomes intuitive even for politicians to extrapolate the trend, the trend has run its course -- in other words, it is a peaking signal at tops.

Here is a long term chart of the S&P 500, with the event labelled on the chart:

Notice when Mitt Romney made the statement about "America being poised to take off economically" -- it is very significant that the statement was made just as Minute wave [ii] up is about to wrap up to a close within the next few trading days, with Minute wave [iii] down of Minor wave C down (April / May 2012 - June 2013) to follow shortly afterwards. The event will indeed turn out to be a significant peaking signal from a socionomic perspective.

The rally also appears to be corrective with a lot of overlapping waves and appears to be forming a bear flag.

Here is a close up of Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave C down in the DJIA:

The chart illustrates how close we are to the end of the rally that started in June 4, 2012. The structure, of course, is a complex (zigzag - double zigzag - flat) structure. The last part of the structure is just about completed with a few more small sub-waves yet to unfold. The waterfall decline to follow should start some time this week.

There is much to be said about Mitt Romney extrapolating a trend that has been in play for over 2 years -- namely extrapolating the trend in the job market. There is a very strong tendency for people to "predict the present" and extrapolate the present into the future when the trend has played out for a sufficiently long time. This event is a peaking signal for the job creation trend as well, with the larger trend of job destruction soon to regain dominance in the job market within the next few months (definitely by the end of the year). With US ISM Manufacturing (officially) in decline for the second month in a row, and US Factory orders and car sales unexpectedly declining last month, there is strong evidence that the declining portion of the business cycle is starting to have an effect on the economy, bringing about the next leg down in "The Great Deflation".

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

On The Edge

This is an update to the previous post regarding the latest developments involving the rally off the June 4, 2012 low point. The rally is very close to completion with likely a few more trading days to go before Minute wave [iii] of Minor wave C down (May 2012 - June 2013) commences. The DJIA is back above 13,000 and the S&P 500 is nearing 1400. Exuberant optimism is one again evident with virtually everyone calling for new highs especially after the ECB President Mario Draghi vowed to do "whatever it takes" to support the euro currency last Thursday. In addition, virtually everyone in Wall Street is looking for the Federal Reserve to launch QE3 and the ECB to launch yet another round of quantitative easing in the very near future. The exuberant optimism and bullishness will not translate into new recovery highs as the bullish sentiment is very consistent with the character of a bearish wave 2 in a larger decline.

Here is an updated chart of Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave C down. The complex structure is very close to completion as the chart indicates:

The structure unfolded as a complex structure (zigzag - double zigzag - flat) with the last part of the flat (Subminuette wave c of Minuette wave (y)) in progress. Notice that the market is struggling to hold the upper light green channel line shown in the chart as support after reaching the trend line. On the longer term, the market continues its struggle to stay above the lower blue trend channel lines associated with Minor wave B up (Oct 2011 - May 2012) -- the trend lines continue to be important and a decisive failure to hold the lower blue trend lines shown in the chart as support would be very bearish as well.

The markets are on the edge of a massive waterfall decline that should start unfolding in early August 2012 with the center of Minor wave C down to be reached around September 19, 2012 and the end of Minute wave [iii] of Minor wave C down to be reached sometime in early October 2012.

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Roadmap for 2012 and 2013

Markets are on the verge of a waterfall decline larger than the one that unfolded in August 2011 as Minor wave C down (May 2012 - June 2013) of Intermediate wave (W) down (Feb 2011 - June 2013) continues to unfold, completing an intermediate degree expanded flat.

All of the major indexes are clearly in the midst of a counter-trend bounce as evidenced by the choppy overlapping waves off the June 4, 2012 low. Here is a chart of the DJIA showing the advance from the June 4, 2012 low:

The rally off the June 4, 2012 low, identified as Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave C down, is nearing completion. The rally appears to be unfolding as a double zigzag with minuette degree sub-waves (w) and (x) complete and the second zigzag in the process of unfolding. With Minuette wave (y) = 0.618 times the length of Minuette wave (w) in the DJIA, an upside target of 13085 is projected based on the fibonacci relationship between the first and second zigzags within Minute wave [ii]. The rally is also losing momentum as the RSI and MACD are no longer confirming the move higher.

Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave C down is projected to reach completion in early August 2012. A massive waterfall decline, Minute wave [iii] down, will follow and last roughly 3 months. Here is a longer term chart of the DJIA, showing an updated road map for Intermediate wave (W) down (Feb 2011 - June 2013) of Primary wave [X] down (Feb 2011 - June 2016) within Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021):

First the longer term perspective. Since Minor wave B up (Oct 2011 - May 2012) is almost 1.618 times the length of Minor wave A down (Feb 2011 - Oct 2011), then it is very likely that Minor wave C down (May 2012 - June 2013) will have 2.618 times the length of Minor wave A. This projects a downside target near 8500 for the end of Intermediate wave (W) down in the DJIA. Now we consider Minor wave C down in terms of its smaller sub-waves. Minute wave [i] down has 27% of the projected length of Minor wave C down with most of it retraced by Minute wave [ii] up. With 93% of the distance to the projected downside target of Minor wave C at the end of the second wave yet to be traversed, there is a strong case for Minute wave [iii] down to have 2.618 times the length of Minute wave [i] down, which projects a downside target of 9750 by October 2012.

Minute wave [iii] down should unfold during August, September, and October with the center of the downward impulse occurring around September 19, 2012. The "point of recognition" is important as evidence of the declining part of the business cycle should be abundantly clear by then, resulting in the Federal Reserve making a move to launch QE3 in an effort to prop up the economy and the stock market. After a multi-month sideways period, Minute wave [v] down should last 3 months with the center of the downward impulse occurring around May 20, 2013. The center of Minute wave [v] should be significant as well. Recall that Occupy Wall Street appeared in September 2011 as the fifth wave of the expanded flat (Minor wave A down)) unfolded. The center of Minute wave [v] down is expected to be associated with the advent of "Occupy Wall Street Phase 2" in which a much larger number of people take to the streets than before.

The same type of scenario also applies to broader markets as well, as the chart of the S&P 500 shows with the Intermediate degree expanded flat unfolding in the index:

The target for Minute wave [ii] of Minor wave C down in the S&P 500 is 1405. Minute wave [iii] down is expected to take the S&P 500 down to 1000 with the relationship Minute wave [iii] = 2.618 * Minute wave [i] expected to unfold. The downside target for Intermediate wave (W) down in the S&P 500 is 814, to be reached in June 2013.

The second half of 2012 and the first half of 2013 will go to the bears as the rest of Intermediate wave (W) down unfolds, after which the markets are projected to rally from June 2013 to June 2014. By the end of Intermediate wave (X) up, there should be a consensus that QE3 was successful in propping up the stock market. The upside targets for the end of Intermediate wave (X) is 1100 in the S&P 500 and 11700 in the DJIA. Intermediate wave (Y) will then follow, unfolding as a zigzag, completing Primary wave [X] down in June 2016 with a downside target of 5500 in the DJIA and around 550 in the S&P 500.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Update on the 2008 Parallel

This is an update to the earlier blog entry "Prelude to 2012" in which a forecast was made that the collapse of MF Global was the prelude to more seismic shocks that will come in 2012. History is indeed repeating itself even though the wave paths have turned out to be different.

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 from 2007 - 2009 with the events labeled:

Notice that the collapse of Bear Stearns took place early in what is now labeled Primary wave [C] down (Oct 2007 - Mar 2009) of Cycle wave w down (2000 - 2009). Six months later, the dam burst open in September and October 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, along with AIG, Freddie Mac and Freddie Mae, and the largest banks all getting a bailout, all as the "Panic of 2008" unfolded.

History is repeating itself again. In November 8, 2011, MF Global collapsed as the bear market rally off the October 4, 2011 low unfolded. The collapse of MF Global was seen as a parallel of the collapse of Bear Stearns. There are a number of recent events that strengthen the case that 2011 - 2016 is a parallel of 2007 - 2009:

1 -- Stockton, CA files for bankruptcy -- Stockton, CA became the largest US city to file for bankruptcy as soaring pensions and contractual obligations became too heavy of a financial burden for the city to carry. The city was unable to reach a deal with creditors to address a $26 million budget shortfall.

2 -- Scranton, PA is bankrupt for all practical purposes -- The city mayor reduced the wage for all city workers, including police and firefighters, to minimum wage as the city's cash reserves rapidly depleted. This move has sparked furor from a number of unions that are now vowing to sue in federal court including a motion to hold the mayor in contempt of court for violating a judge's orders to pay full wages.

3 -- San Bernardino, CA became the third large city in California to file for bankruptcy -- The city is facing a budget shortfall of $45.8 million, has already stopped paying some of its vendors, and is close to being unable to make payroll. The city benefited from the housing boom of the early 2000s, but since suffered as the housing bubble continues to deflate.

4 -- The LIBOR rate fixing scandal has rocked the financial world in the last several days -- At the center of the scandal is the British banking giant Barclays manipulating interest rates on trillions of dollars of credit derivatives. In the aftermath of the scandal, U.K. regulators have launched a criminal investigation into the rate manipulation behavior. A few days later, the scandal expanded in scope with a number of the largest banks including Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup also involved. A number of cities and states in the US are now in the process of suing the banks over the economic impact of LIBOR manipulation. This is already being described as one of the biggest bank frauds in the history of modern civilization.

Here is an updated chart of the S&P 500 from 2011 - 2016 with all the important events labaled:

We are still in the early part of Primary wave [X] down (2011 - 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021), meaning that the "dam bursting open" event is yet to unfold in the future and it will be associated with a Primary-degree "point of recognition". The next set of shocks should come from Europe with the "Panic of 2012" unfolding later this year as the stock markets in Spain, Greece, and Italy reach the center of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down, which would correspond to the center of Minor wave C down of Intermediate wave (W) down (February 2011 - June 2013) in the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000.

The dam should burst open in late 2014 after the popping of the education bubble in June 2014. Look for the Obama Administration to launch TARP 2 to bail out the banks in late 2014 -- especially plausible even now as the "too big to fail" banks were never downgraded in 2008 but have been hit with a series of downgrades since late last year, indicating that the banks are in worse shape now than they were in 2008. With the job market also collapsing during that time (10 million workers in the US lose their jobs between now and June 2016), college graduates won't be able to find employment after graduating from college. The issue is in crisis mode even now as over half of recent college graduates are unemployed. Student loan debt is already past the $1 trillion mark and continues to grow as the college bubble continues to inflate at an exponential clip. In 2014, with the next leg of the job market collapse well underway, look for the Obama Administration to do a student loan bailout to the tune of $1.7 trillion in late 2014. There are already a few people that recognize the possibility of a student loan bailout, such as the article on Bloomberg Businessweek.

The most powerful seismic shocks are yet to rock the financial world as the Primary degree decline (Primary wave [X] down) is still in the early stages. The largest shocks that will hit during the Primary degree decline in social mood should take place in late 2014.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Economic Slope of Hope

We are now seeing evidence of the declining portion of the business cycle unfolding even in the United States with weakening manufacturing and the job market continuing to display signs of exhaustion. Even as the economic indicators (even the official ones published by the BLS) show signs of deterioration, economists and analysts remain stubbornly bullish -- in both 2010 and 2011, when the economic indicators showed signs of declining momentum, the fear of a double dip came up, but there is no fear of a double dip this time around -- just more bullishness. The economy is sliding down the slope of hope, both in the United States, and the rest of the western world.

A number of developments have come into play, solidifying the case for an economic slope of hope:

1 -- In June 2012, manufacturing in the United States as indicated by the ISM index entered into contraction territory with a reading of 49.7. The index stayed above 50 during all of 2010 and 2011. This is a very strong indication that the declining phase of the business cycle is in force. Considering that the ISM in the rest of the Western World has stayed below 50 for an extended amount of time, it is very likely that manufacturing will continue to contract in the months and years ahead. Economists reacted to the numbers by taking a bullish position with the belief that the Federal Reserve will step in with QE3 to keep the economy propped up.

2 -- The job market continues to show signs of exhaustion with just 80,000 jobs created in June 2012 after creating 69,000 jobs in May 2012. Even with a weak jobs picture, economists are still making very large extrapolation leaps such as the prediction by the Department of Labor for careers such as health care to expand by 18% to 30% from 2010 to 2020. Also making a large trend extrapolation leap is Georgetown University's Center on Eduction and Workforce, which is predicting that the health care industry will create 5.6 million jobs by 2020. The fact that people are making large extrapolation leaps in the job market with predictions for more job market growth is very indicative that a reversal is just around the corner. In spite of extreme bullishness on the outlook of the job market by economists and analysts, there is a lot of weakness underneath the surface:

2a -- Full time jobs have been getting harder to find. This strongly supports the supposition that the job creation trend in the United States has been primarily due to the destruction of family wage and living wage jobs with part time minimum wage jobs created in their place.

2b -- Job openings are on the decline as businesses and corporations once again focus more on limits and preservation (bear market trait), rather than progress and production (bull market trait).

2c -- Large scale job layoffs are making a comeback with Best Buy laying off 2400 workers and Nokia laying off 10,000 workers. This is just the start of what should be a very persistent trend of large scale layoffs that will continue until June 2016 and result in 10 million (or more) people losing their jobs as Primary wave [X] down (Feb 2011 - June 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) unfolds.

3 -- Economists are already fishing for a bottom in the United States economy with many analysts extremely bullish on the housing market and optimistic that the Federal Reserve will step in with QE3 on any hints of further weakness.

The stock markets are also indicating that the declining phase of the business cycle has arrived. The orthodox high points are already in for all of the major market indexes, including the DJIA. The "final thrust" that started to unfold from the June 4, 2012 low has morphed into a double zigzag, which means that Minor wave C down of Intermediate wave (W) down of Primary wave [X] down (2011 - 2016) has arrived.

Here is an updated intermediate term chart of the DJIA:

Minor wave B up in the DJIA unfolded as a triple zigzag and as a bearish rising wedge. The downside target for Minor wave C down is roughly 8500 to be reached in June 2013.

Here is an updated intermediate term chart of the S&P 500:

Minor wave B up in the S&P 500 (and the Wilshire 5000) unfolded as a double zigzag and peaked sooner than the DJIA. The downside target for Minor wave C down in the S&P 500 is roughly 850 to be reached in June 2013.

Minor wave C down has begun in all of the major indexes with Minute wave [i] down completed in early June 2012 and Minute wave [ii] up in progress. The stock market is expected to remain elevated in a trading range (12200 - 13200 for the DJIA, 1200 - 1380 for the S&P 500) before heading lower in earnest later this year with Minute wave [iii] down unfolding as a massive waterfall decline.

The declining phase of the business cycle is unfolding, but economists and analysts are expected to remain stubbornly bullish even as the economy, the stock market, and the job market resume their larger downtrend. The business cycle low point will be reached around June 2016 with a downside target of 5500 for the DJIA and around 550 for the S&P 500.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

More Precursors of Climate Change

As with last year, we continue to see more and more precursors of the coming climate change even as people continue to remain complacent on the issue. The effects of man-made climate change that we are seeing now is just a preview of what we will see during "The Great Tribulation" when the effects of man-made climate change start unfolding in full force.

As I demonstrated here and here, man-made global warming unfolding in full force will be one of the defining characteristics of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) within Grand Supercycle wave [IV], which is one of the big reasons why the term "The Great Tribulation" is warranted.

Recent events in the Unites States sets the scene for the effects of man-made global warming:

1 -- A number of massive wildfires are burning out of control in Colorado, causing the evacuation of 32000 people from a number of small communities along the Waldo Canyon area. The wildfires started on June 9, 2012 mostly from lightning strikes. The fires have burned over 200,000 acres and destroyed over 600 homes. The massive wildfire was made possible by a lack of precipitation as the area received only 13% of normal precipitation during the 2011-2012 winter. A few days ago, President Obama toured the state and sent in federal resources to battle the fires.

2 -- After one of the warmest springs on record, a large portion of southern and central United States is currently being plagued by a scorching heat wave with over 1000 records falling so far. There are a few people that are recognizing the connection between rising temperatures and man made climate change with NBC Washington's chief meteorologist commenting "if we did not have global warming, we would not be seeing this".

3 -- It's still early in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, but there is already damage being done. Rising temperatures are not the only consequence of global warming, as recently demonstrated with Tropical Storm Debby (2012) drenching the Florida coast with over 2 feet of rain and causing massive flooding and opening up numerous sinkholes.

As the abuse of resources, particularly fossil fuels, continues to take place under the political influence of the Koch-ALEC cabal for the sake of making a larger profit, the cumulative effects of unrestrained consumption of fossil fuels continues to unfold. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Arctic recently exceeded 400 parts per million. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 275 parts per million at the start of the late Industrial Revolution (Supercycle wave (III) up (1859 - 1929)). It is very likely that the abuse of resources will continue unabated until the oil supply crash takes place in 2017.

The "Green Technology Revolution" will affect the timing of when the full force of man made global warming will unfold as alternative energy becomes the dominant source of energy in Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea as Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) unfolds. Utilization of alternative energy will slow down the progression of man made climate change with less carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere. As demonstrated in an earlier post, alternative energy will never get a foothold in the United States due to the strong political influence of Koch Industries and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), so the abuse of fossil fuels (particularly coal) is expected to continue in the United States throughout Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) and even a portion of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) as well.

There is already recognition of the reality of man made global warming amongst the scientists. Unfortunately, it will be a very long time before everyone else realizes that man made global warming is real. Here is a long term chart of the DJIA showing when the "point of recognition" will come:

It is very likely that the "point of recognition" associated with man made global warming will take place at the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) within the larger Supercycle wave (c) down. The "point of recognition" will result in the "Global Warming Panic" in 2078 as people finally realize that global warming is for real.

We are a long way from the "point of recognition". As recent news demonstrates, the vast majority of people are still in denial when it comes to the reality of global warming:

1 -- The Rio + 20 summit, which was supposed to hammer out solutions to the coming climate crisis, ended in a complete failure with nothing accomplished.

2 -- There is denial even at the White House, as demonstrated by President Obama's recent approval for building the southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline and the approval of offshore oil drilling in the Arctic with the belief that an oil spill could never happen.

3 -- The Chamber of Commerce and utility companies are actively waging a campaign against increasing renewable energy standards in Michigan. This is likely just one of many such campaign battles being fought to stop alternative energy from getting a foothold anywhere in the United States.

The implications of man made climate change are very real. As the full force of climate change unfolds, the global availability of arable land will eventually be affected. During Supercycle wave (c) down, it is very likely that nations will go to war to secure control over arable land and habitable land. The possibility of war as a consequence of climate change has been discussed in an article titled "Memorial Day 2030". This would not be the first time that civilization would be dramatically affected by climate change -- Recent archeological evidence points to climate change as the primary cause of the fall of the ancient Indus civilization between 3900 and 3000 years ago.

The effects of man made climate change will almost certainly continue well into Grand Supercycle wave [V] up (2118 - 2296) with sea levels continuing to rise during that time. However, it is very likely that positive social mood during that time will allow human civilization to adapt to the changing climate.