Prelude to 2012

While the economic fault lines appear to be stabilized (but very fragile), we are already seeing events that foreshadow what is yet to come when we approach the center of Minor wave 3 down in March / April 2012. There has already been a lot of comparisons between 2007-2008 and today as far as the stock market is concerned. The parallel is broader in scope than just the stock market as the same financial and economic implications are poised to play out in 2012 as they did in 2008.

On November 8, 2011, MF Global filed for bankruptcy. The corporation was run by ex-Goldman Sachs chairman Jon Corzine. The company went bankrupt after making bets on European sovereign debt. MF Global was the fifth largest financial-industry public company (with $41 billion in assets and $39.7 billion in debt) before filing for bankruptcy.

On November 9, 2011, Jefferson County, Alabama filed for bankruptcy. This is the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history at $4.1 billion. The bankruptcy resulted from a crumbling infrastructure, a budget shortfall, court rulings, a lagging economy, and public corruption. The debt burden also became too heavy for the county to carry as rising interest rates made the loan payments unaffordable.

The bankruptcy of MF Global and Jefferson County are just precursor events, with larger events poised to unfold as we approach the center of Minor wave 3 down. The bankruptcies are a parallel of the collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008.

Here are two charts that compare the events of Primary wave [1] down (2007 - 2009) to Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down.

Primary wave [1] down:

Minor wave 2 of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down:

The one thing to notice is that the bankruptcy of MF Global / Jefferson County occurred almost at the same position as the collapse of Bear Stearns did -- they both occurred about halfway through the second subwave within the larger downward impulse. Bear Stearns collapsed during Intermediate wave (2) of Primary wave [1] down. The bankruptcy of MF Global and Jefferson County occurred during Minor wave 2 of Intermediate wave (1).

The bankruptcy of MF Global and Jefferson County is a warning of what is yet to come as we approach the center of Minor wave 3 down. The "too big to fail" banks are in worse shape now than they were in 2008 as the banks did not get their credit ratings downgraded in 2008 but three of the "too big to fail" banks were downgraded by Moody's in late September 2011, along with UBS, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan Chase facing the threat of a credit downgrade. If the 2008 scenario continues to unfold, then the Obama Administration will be doing a lot of bailouts in March / April 2012 and TARP 2 will be launched to bail out the "too big to fail" banks. The center of Minor wave 3 down will also be characterized by the "Panic of 2012".