Sunday, December 16, 2012

Hard Times, Not End Times

As we approach the fateful date, December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia continues to grow. With social mood going south again with the retracement of the 2 year bearish rising wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 in progress, the doomsday phobia is likely to grow more and more pervasive as we go through the last few days before reaching December 21, 2012.

Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, showing the retracement of the rising bearish wedge in progress:

The primary count is that the wedge collapse is Intermediate wave (A) down of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) with the wedge collapse unfolding as a double zigzag. There are other possibilities, of course, on how the wedge collapse could unfold, as it could also unfold as a zigzag, triple zigzag, or even a double combination structure (expanded flat -- x wave -- zigzag). The double combination scenario would involve the markets putting in a marginal new high (the rally off the November 2012 low point is clearly corrective) before commencing lower to complete Minor wave W down as an expanded flat, which would be followed by Minor wave X (any corrective pattern) and then Minor wave Y down unfolding as a zigzag.

Here is a chart showing the wedge collapse in detail:

Markets may be able to find support at the area shown by the red box. The support level is very significant because it is the level associated with the most recent Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. Losing this level as support is considered bearish, so the markets are expected to hold the level (11000 - 11250) as support for at least a short time. However, the larger bear market trend will be in control, so the support level is expected to be lost quickly as Minor wave Y of the double zigzag unfolds, which would then be followed by a full retracement of the 2 year rising bearish wedge a short time later.

As we approach December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia is already in full swing, of course augmented by social mood going south at Primary degree within a much larger bear market. In spite of NASA debunking the 2012 doomsday scenario, there are still at least 1 out of every 10 people that believe that the world is ending just days from now.

Here is a Google Trends chart from 2004 to present with the search term "2012 apocalypse"

Here is a chart showing the trend in the last 90 days (the trend is up):

Bear markets bring hard times for humanity. But there is a great deal of difference between hard times and end times. The Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000 is going to result in hard times for many people, but it certainly won't result in the end of the world or the end of human civilization. People were able to weather through the last bear market of comparable magnitude (Grand Supercycle wave [II] down (1720 - 1784)) and human civilization was never in danger of coming to its end back then. We will still be here in 2013, and for that matter, human civilization will still be around when the bear market ends in 2118.


  1. You might be interested in this chart and its time ratios

  2. As your charts and technical analysis are so clearly bearish, I'd love to know how you imagine markets falling in the face of globally co ordinated stimulus and easing?

    I share your views (when considering how truly messed up things are) but still can't see how you fight 85 billion new dollars thrown at the market every month, as well as every other central bank on the planet ready to print/ease/stimuluate.

    What could you possibly envision happening that would overcome this?

  3. On the most recent post "Obama". Again.....I really love your angle - but assume you don't trade / invest based on this - as you'd be in deep deep trouble.

    Again markets continue higher with the aid of global central bank intervention and easing.

    Don't you think your models / theories need to tak ethis into account?