Friday, December 28, 2012

The Fall of Obama

All the indicators are now pointing to President Obama approaching a peak of monumental scale with a massive decline (in the "Obama brand") to follow in the aftermath. The peak appears to be imminent if not already upon us. The DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 are also indicating a peak of monumental size is in the making as well as Primary wave [A] up (2009 - 2012) has run its course with a massive wedge collapse in progress.

Obama's approval rating is currently at 54% (and peaking), having rose from 48% just before the 2012 elections, but still forming a lower high relative to the May 2011 peak in which Obama's approval rating reached a high of 61%. The lower high is in play in spite of the markets putting in a higher high relative to May 2011.

A few days ago, President Obama was named "Person of the Year" on Time Magazine and appeared on the magazine cover. The magazine cover picture can be seen here. The Magazine Cover Indicator is a peaking signal --- it is an indication that the "Obama brand" is approaching a peak of massive scale and a multi-year decline is imminent.

Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Magazine Cover Indicator event labelled:

Notice that the event occurred close to the peak of Minute wave [b] up within a larger double zigzag structure. Since the event, the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 closed down roughly 2% for the week with the DJIA declining 158 points earlier today.

The primary count still favors the double zigzag structure for the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016), with the double combination (expanded flat - x wave - zigzag) structure being the alternate scenario. The proposed Minute wave [b] within Minor wave W has retraced 90% of the proposed Minute wave [a] in the Wilshire 5000, but still well short of the 90% threshold for the DJIA and the S&P 500.

The implication of a wedge collapse in the stock market is a fast decline in social mood. With social mood going south fast, approval ratings will also take a big hit with Obama's approval rating possibly falling below 30% by June 2013. On the short term, the United States is facing a "fiscal cliff crisis" with President Obama and John Boehner desperately hoping to reach a deal on taxes and spending before the clock expires. The United States is also facing a "debt ceiling crisis" as well with the $16.4 trillion debt limit on the verge of being hit (if not already there) with the Treasury Department using accounting maneuvers to buy time for Congress to act on raising the debt ceiling. A rapid increase in bearish social mood due to a wedge collapse is expected to result in increasing strife and discord between President Obama and John Boehner with a dangerous game of chicken involving the US economy once again in play. The best case scenario is for the can known as the "Bush Tax Cuts" to get kicked down the road once again. The worst case scenario is for the United States to actually go off the fiscal cliff due to strife and discord in the political arena with austerity measures in the form of tax increases and spending cuts to go into effect as soon as we enter the year 2013. It is possible that going off the fiscal cliff (if it were to happen) will lead to another credit rating downgrade on US government debt as we approach the climax of Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down on June 2013.

In spite of the fiscal cliff drama and the debt ceiling about to be hit, the American populace is still very optimistic about Obama's accomplishments in the years ahead, with many already comparing Obama to FDR:

1 -- FDR vs Obama -- "Obama invokes FDR in his convention speech".  The American populace already see Obama as a parallel of FDR.

2 -- Politico -- "Obama Channels Teddy Roosevelt". Even centrist Republicans are displaying optimism on Obama's future legacy. This shows that the bullish optimism is broad based and not confined to the liberal factions in the American populace.

3 -- Suite 101 -- "Comparing Barack Obama to Franklin D Roosevelt". Even in early 2009 with the climax of Cycle wave w (2000 - 2009) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042) unfolding, people were still very optimistic that Obama would be the new FDR.

Comparisons to FDR are a product of linear extrapolation. With the 2012 election completed with Obama winning a second term, just about everyone is making large extrapolation leaps with the prediction that Obama will have an FDR type of legacy in 2017. The tendency for large extrapolation leaps is yet another peaking signal, along side the "Magazine Cover Indicator".

The "Obama brand" is expected to collapse in the coming years as Primary wave [B] (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) unfolds with the peak about to be reached before the multi-year decline starts. During the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A), Obama's approval rating is expected to fall to the 28% to 32% range by June 2013. During Intermediate wave (B) up, which should unfold from June 2013 to June 2014, Obama's approval rating will get a sizable bounce, but put in a lower high (low to mid 40s approval rating) relative to the current approval rating peak of 54%. During Intermediate wave (C) down from June 2014 to June 2016, markets are expected to embark on a massive waterfall decline. With Obama's approval rating falling to the low 20s by 2016, bearish social mood is expected to result in the GOP attempting to get Obama impeached starting in 2015 -- the impeachment is expected to be successful in the House, but expected to fail in the Senate (Democrats will be united in keeping Obama in power). Obama's approval rating could easily fall below 20% by the time the 2016 election takes place.

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Hard Times, Not End Times

As we approach the fateful date, December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia continues to grow. With social mood going south again with the retracement of the 2 year bearish rising wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 in progress, the doomsday phobia is likely to grow more and more pervasive as we go through the last few days before reaching December 21, 2012.

Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, showing the retracement of the rising bearish wedge in progress:

The primary count is that the wedge collapse is Intermediate wave (A) down of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) with the wedge collapse unfolding as a double zigzag. There are other possibilities, of course, on how the wedge collapse could unfold, as it could also unfold as a zigzag, triple zigzag, or even a double combination structure (expanded flat -- x wave -- zigzag). The double combination scenario would involve the markets putting in a marginal new high (the rally off the November 2012 low point is clearly corrective) before commencing lower to complete Minor wave W down as an expanded flat, which would be followed by Minor wave X (any corrective pattern) and then Minor wave Y down unfolding as a zigzag.

Here is a chart showing the wedge collapse in detail:

Markets may be able to find support at the area shown by the red box. The support level is very significant because it is the level associated with the most recent Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. Losing this level as support is considered bearish, so the markets are expected to hold the level (11000 - 11250) as support for at least a short time. However, the larger bear market trend will be in control, so the support level is expected to be lost quickly as Minor wave Y of the double zigzag unfolds, which would then be followed by a full retracement of the 2 year rising bearish wedge a short time later.

As we approach December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia is already in full swing, of course augmented by social mood going south at Primary degree within a much larger bear market. In spite of NASA debunking the 2012 doomsday scenario, there are still at least 1 out of every 10 people that believe that the world is ending just days from now.

Here is a Google Trends chart from 2004 to present with the search term "2012 apocalypse"

Here is a chart showing the trend in the last 90 days (the trend is up):

Bear markets bring hard times for humanity. But there is a great deal of difference between hard times and end times. The Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000 is going to result in hard times for many people, but it certainly won't result in the end of the world or the end of human civilization. People were able to weather through the last bear market of comparable magnitude (Grand Supercycle wave [II] down (1720 - 1784)) and human civilization was never in danger of coming to its end back then. We will still be here in 2013, and for that matter, human civilization will still be around when the bear market ends in 2118.