Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Inclusionism Breaks New Ground

As a testimony of social mood remaining at historically bullish levels in spite of 12 years of bear market (so far), we witnessed inclusionism (characteristic of bullish social mood) break new ground with Russia joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) after 18 years of negotiations.  The significance of the event won't be recognized by most people, but it is a very significant event from a socionomic perspective. This type of event, along with Mitt Romney calling for more bull market in the economy and job market (see this post), could easily be a peaking signal with a large degree reversal just around the corner.

When inclusionism breaks ground in previously unreachable areas, it is a very strong peaking signal. The last event of this type was Bulgaria and Romania joining the European Union in 2007 just before Primary wave [B] of Cycle wave w down (2000 - 2009) ended in October 2007. It is also notable that there was a frenzied eastward expansion of the European Union from 2004 to 2007 with 10 nations added to the union during the period.

Even though there has been a lot of speculation amongst the (euro) bears that the European Union will break up in the future, there is a strong case to be made that the expansion of the EU could continue all the way into 2021, the peak of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up, with the break up (due to nations leaving the EU) to take place during Cycle wave y (2021 - 2042) of Supercycle wave (a) (2000 - 2042) down. The last part of Cycle wave x up (likely to be Primary wave [Y] up (2016 - 2021)) could feature a last frenzied expansion of the European Union before "The Great Deflation" unfolds in full force in 2021. Indeed, the stage is already being set for a last period of frenzied expansion starting with Croatia set to join the European Union in July 2013 and several other nations recognized as potential candidates to join the EU in the future.

The addition of Russia into the WTO is occurring as Primary wave [W] up is nearing a peak (current wave count was invalidated in the S&P 500, but still valid for the DJIA and Wilshire 5000. New charts coming in the very near future), with Primary wave [X] down to shortly follow the peak.

The European Union is expected to come under a lot of stress during Primary wave [X] (~2012 to 2016) down of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up with perhaps a lot of speculation that Greece, Spain, Italy, or Portugal leaving the European Union during that time. When Primary wave [Y] (2016 - 2021) up of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up starts, the European Union is expected to go on a frenzied expansion with inclusionism reaching levels regarded as unreachable today. There are five nations that are even now recognized as candidates for inclusion into the European Union -- Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey. In addition, Albania is in the process of applying for membership into the EU. From the socionomic perspecive, the most likely scenario is for Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, and Albania to gain membership in the European Union during the 2019 - 2021 time frame as the last part of the Cycle degree advance in social mood unfolds.

The Euro, the currency of the European Union, is expected to be a fully functioning currency during the rest of the "extend and pretend" phase (the second phase of "The Great Deflation"), with the fate of the currency expected to face very tough challenges during the third phase of "The Great Deflation" during the 2021 - 2042 time frame.


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  3. Hi AV, when are you looking at giving an update on the S&P and the Dow? The markets do look like they are getting top heavy here, would be interesting to see what your views are going forward from here.