Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Social Trends For 2012

With the arrival of the new year comes an extremely optimistic outlook that comes with the topping process associated with Minor wave 2 up with Minor wave 3 down just around the corner. As expected (back in late September 2011), market analysts are invoking the "January Effect" as a reason to be bullish for the new year.

We are expected to go through increasingly hard times in 2012 as "The Great Deflation" starts unfolding in full force, bringing about social trends associated with an increasingly bearish social mood. Here are some social trends expected to unfold in 2012:

1 -- The trend of increasing authoritarianism is expected to accelerate in 2012. Many governments throughout the world increased their control over their own people in 2011. Even in the United States, there was a rapid rise in state level authoritarianism with people such as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie leading the charge with laws aimed at union busting, voter suppression, curbs to immigration, and curbs to abortion. Look for this trend to continue in 2012 with even more state and national governments increasing their control over people.

2 -- Increasing strife and discord in the political arena throughout the western world in 2012 -- expect more political gridlock with government shutdowns in the United States lasting several months and individual nations within the European Union continuing to throw a monkey wrench into attempts by the European Union to prop up their economic infrastructure with some nations refusing to accept money from the IMF and the European Central Bank.

3 -- "The Panic of 2012" -- A panic is expected to unfold in March / April 2012 upon reaching the center of Minor wave 3 down as an Intermediate degree "point of recognition" is reached. The point of recognition is expected to trigger limited bank runs throughout the western world with up to 5% of the population attempting to pull their money out of the banks. There is a substantial chance that the bank run could result in governments declaring a bank holiday in one or more nations throughout the western world.

4 -- TARP 2 -- The center of Minor wave 3 down is expected to be characterized by another financial meltdown as AIG, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and many banks start imploding in large numbers. The Obama Administration is expected to respond to the crisis by launching TARP 2 to bail out the banks. As with the original, TARP 2 will get bi-partisan support and get pushed through Congress very quickly. Many of the "too big to fail" banks have already been hit with numerous downgrades from Moody's, Standard and Poors, and Fitch last year, indicating that the banks are in worse shape now than they were in 2008.

5 -- Stocks, commodities, the economy, and the job market are expected to rapidly decline throughout the western world in 2012 as the larger bear market trend regains the upper hand early in the year with around 7 million people losing their jobs in the United States alone for the year.

6 -- Social unrest is expected to increase in 2012 throughout the world with the Middle East and the peripheral European nations leading the way. There is ongoing social unrest in Syria, Russia, Greece, Spain, Libya, and Egypt.

7 -- Phase 2 of Occupy Wall Street -- the second phase of Occupy Wall Street is expected to start shortly after the "Panic of 2012" occurs with people expected to take to the streets again after TARP 2 is launched to bail out the banks. The protests are expected to slowly increase in number and extent until the center of Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (1) down is reached (around August 2012) which will then bring about a rapid increase in people taking to the streets throughout the western world with around 300,000 people taking to the streets in the United States alone by October 2012. The OWS protests will be met with an increasingly repressive response from law enforcement with tear gas, water cannons, rubber bullets, and even LRADs extensively used on peaceful protesters. There are already signs that governments are preparing for the second phase of Occupy Wall Street with President Obama recently signing the NDAA into law, allowing for indefinite detention of US citizens without a trial or charge, the government of Argentina adopting a wide definition of terrorism, allowing prison terms of 15 years for protesters, and the city of London police within the UK declaring Occupy Wall Street to be a terrorist organization.

8 -- Christians are expected to continue the trend of embracing the doctrine that the world is coming to an end on December 21, 2012, the alleged end of the Mayan calendar. As social mood becomes increasingly bearish, Christians will become increasingly assertive about the so-called end of the world with increasingly dark themes. Many Christians have already jumped on the bandwagon.

We will face increasingly hard times in 2012. However, the world will not come to an end on December 21, 2012. There is a large difference between hard times and end times. The world will still be around in 2013 in spite of all the people calling for the end of the world this year.


  1. Thanks, I find your predictions entirley plausible!

  2. I have no idea where you picked up the idea that Christians think the world is going to end this December. Continue the trend? End of the Mayan calendar? The Mayan calendar does not end this December. In fact it doesn't end at all. They saw time as cyclical not linear. Its the end of a very long age and the start of a new one.

  3. What happened to the "Waterfall Decline"? I am desperately waiting for it.

  4. I just went back and checked some of your earlier blogs. All depressing and mostly accurate as it turns out. I too am waiting for this decline as the last of my puts expire in June :(
    I just the hope the rest of your analysis is wrong about the length and depth of this social/economic meltdown.