Sunday, December 4, 2011

Aura of Exuberant Bullishness

We are definitely in the last part of Minor wave 2 up, and it shows in the form of exuberant bullishness. Virtually everyone is bullish on the stock market, economy, and the job market. Economists, market analysts, and people in the mainstream media are extremely bullish on the economy and the job market.

The massive shift to exuberant bullishness occurred on Wednesday with the intervention of multiple central banks with the aim of shoring up liquidity. The DJIA shot up almost 500 points on that day. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank all joined in a coordinated move to shore up liquidity in the financial markets. The move also made more dollars available at a cheaper rate. The event resulted in exuberant bullishness with economists and market analysts expressing optimism that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will be solved once and for all.

The US jobs report came out on Friday. The DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 500 were virtually flat for the day, rallying in the early hours before giving it all back by the end of the trading session. The job report showed that the "official unemployment rate" (U-3) fell from 9.0% to 8.6% even though job creation remained sluggish. Even before the report came out, economists were already extremely bullish on the job market. Once the job report came out, an aura of exuberant bullishness commenced as even the mainstream media turned extremely bullish on the job market

The DJIA shot up over 800 points for the week. Virtually everyone is convinced that the stock market will keep rising and are calling for more bull market. Many are even calling for the DJIA and the S&P 500 to exceed their 2007 highs.

There is a pervasive aura of exuberant bullishness in force. This is consistent with the wave personality of a wave 2 in a bear market as analysts, economists, and investors become convinced that the worst is over as calls for more bull market and calls for more economic recovery become louder. We are approaching the end of Minor wave 2 up, with Minor wave 3 down to follow starting in January 2012.

Just like May 2011 when the peak of Primary wave [2] up (2009 - 2011) was reached, President Obama is already declaring victory on the economy and has put up the "Mission Accomplished" sign on the job market.

Aside from the economy, job market, and the stock market, there are two other socionomic indicators that are also signalling that were are in the last part of Minor wave 2 up:

1 -- Occupy Wall Street continues to follow the same pattern as the Tea Party. Recall that the Tea Party was rapidly losing steam with fewer and fewer rallies and protests in the streets as Intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave [2] up unfolded. The same pattern is unfolding with OWS as protests in the streets have rapidly declined since late November 2011 when Minute wave [y] of Minor wave 2 up started. As of today, as I write this, OWS protests have virtually stopped in the United States. The Tea Party was characterized as a "spent force" and a "flash in the pan" by the time we reached the peak of Primary wave [2] up. There is expectation that the mainstream media will characterize OWS as a "flash in the pan" by the time we reach the peak of Minor wave 2 up. We are getting close to that point (perhaps 1 to 4 weeks in the future) but there are already a handful of bloggers making comments about OWS getting exhausted, such as this one that appeared on CNBC.

2 -- Virtually everyone in the mainstream media is strongly convinced that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. This trend was easily predictable using the socionomic model as voters have a tendency to vote for centrist candidates as social mood becomes increasingly bullish and radical candidates as social mood becomes increasingly bearish. Intrade was giving Mitt Romney as much as a 70% chance of winning the Republican Primary. While Minor wave 2 up is unfolding, Mitt Romney will have the wind at his back in the Republican Primary. Once Minor wave 3 down starts in January 2012, Mitt Romney will face increasingly stiff headwinds as the voter tendency to vote for radical candidates increases over time.

We will be facing increasingly hard times in 2012 as we go deeper into Primary wave [3] down. For now, there is an aura of exuberant bullishness that is expected to persist through the holidays. The job market is having its last gasp as the creation of jobs reflects hiring in anticipation of Black Friday and the holiday shopping season.

1 comment: