Sunday, October 23, 2011

Precursors of Martial Law

There is now very clear evidence that "Occupy Wall Street" is on a direct collision course with rising authoritarianism. Even as a rising positive social mood associated with Minor wave 2 up continues to temper the protests over time, the mass arrests and other forms of rising authoritarianism are still playing out. Both the protests and the increasing authoritarianism are a result of social mood associated with the bear market that has been unfolding since 2000.

The "Occupy Wall Street" protests are still in the early stages. The protests peaked for the year in the United States around October 6, 2011 with roughly 40,000 people -- just over 0.01% of the population -- taking to the streets. As the worst part of "The Great Deflation" continues to unfold, the "Occupy Wall Street" protests will escalate over time in terms of the number of people taking to the streets, and there will also be an escalation in terms of how governments and law enforcement responds as the protests continue to get larger over time.

One of the recent developments that will prove to be a precursor of events to come is the arrest of Naomi Wolf on October 18, 2011 as she took part in the protests in New York City. The arbitrary arrest and detention of a political activist is a very big deal -- In the 1930s, such an event was a precursor of martial law in Germany and the Soviet Union. The bear market that resulted in the authoritarian regimes in Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union under Stalin is Supercycle degree. We are now in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, so the potential for authoritarianism in the form of martial law is even greater.

With the worst part of "The Great Deflation" still in the future and Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016) still in its infancy, social mood is still dominantly positive. This could explain why Naomi Wolf was released relatively quickly after the arrest and detention occurred. Even now, Naomi Wolf has already expressed concern over heavy handed tactics by law enforcement on the protesters. Another concern that was the involvement of the Department of Homeland Security in the arrest (video is here).

The initial phase of "Occupy Wall Street" started on September 17, 2011 -- during Minute wave [v] of Minor wave 1 down (May 2011 - Oct 2011). As Minor wave 2 up continues unfolding, the protests should lose steam over time, but not completely disappear.

The next phase of "Occupy Wall Street" should start around February 2012 as increasing bearish social mood associated with Minor wave 3 down will reignite the protests and anger over the concentration of wealth in the top 1% continues to build. The protests should slowly grow over time. The center of Minor wave 3 down should be significant. The Intermediate degree "point of recognition", which is projected to be reached in March / April 2012, should manifest itself in the form of police departments stepping up their efforts at breaking up the protests -- expect police departments to utilize tear gas and water cannons on the protesters, even if the protests are peaceful.

The third phase of "Occupy Wall Street" will definitely correspond with Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (1) down (May 2011 - Sept 2012) and could start in August 2012. In this phase, expect a larger demographic of people to take to the streets and expect the protests to be 10 times larger than today, with around 300,000 people, or 0.1% of the US population, taking to the streets. The increased size of the protests will be met with an increasingly robust response from law enforcement with a much larger police presence at the site of the protests than today.

The protests will again lose steam through all of Intermediate wave (2) up (Sept 2012 - May 2013), then get re-ignited with the onset of Intermediate wave (3) down. The protests slowly grow over time. With the center of Intermediate wave (3) down -- which should be reached in October 2013 -- efforts aimed at ending the protests get taken to the next level with the Department of Homeland Security getting involved in arresting people seen as protest leaders in an effort to break the back of the "Occupy Wall Street" protests.

Once the center of Primary wave [3] down is reached, social mood will be dominantly bearish.

The next significant phase of "Occupy Wall Street" would start around the middle of 2015 during Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [3] down with another massive surge in the protests. By the middle of 2016, the protests will be very large with around 3 million people, or 1% of the US population, taking to the streets. With the unemployment rate (U6) projected to hit 40% by March 2016, there will be a sufficient amount of anger for such a large number of people to take to the streets.

Historically, when the protests reach 1% of a nation's population (critical level is a conjecture at this point), the nation's government generally responds through an extra-ordinary effort to crush the protests. The Obama Administration is likely to remain on the sidelines.

When push comes to shove, governments will act to keep the top 1% in power by any means necessary. Given the precursor events that have unfolded so far with mass arrests, the use of pepper spray on protesters by police officers, baton beatings on protesters by police officers, and now the arbitrary arrest and detention of a political activist, and the use of tear gas and water cannons in the near future, there is no doubt that the "Occupy Wall Street" protests will eventually lead to martial law.

The Bachmann Administration will impose martial law to crush the "Occupy Wall Street" protests. This starts with New York City going into martial law in 2017, followed by Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and San Fransisco going into martial law in 2018. During Primary wave [5] down in social mood, the unemployment rate (U6) will be approaching 60%, which will result in a massive tidal wave of anger directed at the top 1%. The final phase should start in 2020, near the center of Primary wave [5] down, where a epic uprising of the 99% against the top 1% will be met with a epic crackdown in which martial law is imposed in every major city in the US. 

No comments:

Post a Comment