Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Occupy Wall Street -- Day 26

It is quite clear that Occupy Wall Street is on a collision course with rising authoritarianism throughout the Unites States as mass arrests have taken place in Boston and Seattle, implying that we are seeing evidence of rising authoritarianism even in the blue states. Michigan continues to lead the charge in terms of increasing authoritarianism, as evidenced by the latest developments in which new state laws are in the works that are aimed at overriding local laws.

There is one difference between the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street -- the difference is that the Tea Party as allowed to do as they wanted without push-back from governments, whereas Occupy Wall Street has been on a constant collision course with rising authoritarianism.

From a socionomic perspective, both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street have a common denominator -- they are both motivated by a bearish social mood as angry people take to the streets. In fact, they both exhibit identical patterns, but at different degrees of trend.

The Tea Party formed in February 2009, during Intermediate wave (5) of Primary wave [1] down (2007 - 2009). The Tea Party peaked just after the March 2009 low, then steadily lost steam as Primary wave [2] up (2009 - 2011) continued to unfold. By the time the Primary-degree bear market rally peaked, the Tea Party appeared to be a "spent force". The complete write-up on the socionomic perspective of the Tea Party is here at Socionomics Institute's website (take a look at the chart on the write-up).

So far, Occupy Wall Street has followed the same pattern as the Tea Party. Here is a chart of the DJIA with important events pertaining to Occupy Wall Street added.

The chart shows all of Minute wave [v] of Minor wave 1 down (May 2011 - Oct 2011) as well as the early part of Minor wave 2 up that is starting to unfold. Both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street formed during the fifth wave of a larger downward impulse. Afterwards, both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street grew in size and picked up steam through the rest of the downward impulse. After the low point of the downward impulse was reached, the protest peaked and started to lose steam. Occupy Wall Street peaked (for the year) on October 6, 2011, 2 days after Minor wave 2 up started to unfold.

Here is a chart of Occupy Wall Street using Google Trends, which shows the search volume of the subject on the Internet over time, as well as the news reference volume. The end of Minor wave 1 down (May 2011 - Oct 2011) and the beginning of Minor wave 2 up is also indicated on the chart.

There is also an element of linear trend extrapolation in play as well. When Occupy Wall Street first appeared, Keith Olbermann of Countdown was the only journalist that covered the events. By the time Occupy Wall Street peaked for the year on October 6, 2011, virtually everyone in the mainstream media was talking about the protests, and people became convinced that the protests would continue to pick up steam in the coming days and weeks ahead.

For the rest of the year, rising positive social mood associated with Minor wave 2 up will chill the Occupy Wall Street protests in the same way that the rising positive social mood associated with Primary wave [2] up (2009 - 2011) resulted in the Tea Party losing steam over time. Occupy Wall Street is predicted to lose steam as Minor wave 2 up continues to unfold. 

If Occupy Wall Street persists through Minor wave 2 up, the next wave of increasing bearish social mood, namely Minor wave 3 down, will re-ignite the Occupy Wall Street protests with people taking to the streets in much larger numbers than today starting in February 2012. Considering that the Occupy Wall Street protests are already in a direct collision course with increasing authoritarianism, it is very likely that police departments will step up their efforts to break the back of the protests -- look for the police to utilize tear gas and water cannons on the protesters in addition to mass arrests even if the protests remain peaceful, and the standoff could get ugly quick after the center of Minor wave 3 down (which would be also the center of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down) is reached around March 2012.

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