Sunday, August 7, 2011

Point of Recognition and the Aftermath

In the aftermath of reaching a Minor degree "point of recognition", the center of Minor wave 1 down, we have been seeing a lot of volatility as evidenced by large price swings in the stock market and the VIX. Last Friday, the DJIA traced out over 500 points of movement for the day. This is playing out like a smaller version of the "Panic of 2008" in which volatility and fear dominated the markets after the center of Primary wave [1] down was reached in October 2008.

The events that have taken place since the "point of recognition" are just a warm-up to what will happen when the big one hits in October 2013 (the center of Primary wave [3] of Cycle wave c down). Here is a sample of events that have unfolded since the "point of recognition".

1 -- The United States lost its prized AAA credit rating as S&P cut the debt rating from AAA to AA+. A short time after the downgrade occurred, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, and John Huntsman all blasted Obama in reaction to the downgrade. The Obama Administration, of course, blasted S&P for an alleged math error. A day later, China blasted the United States government for the debt rating downgrade. Towards the end of Saturday, S&P issued warnings that more downgrades could take place in the near future.

2 -- Riots erupted in London after a police shooting that killed a civilian. Hundreds of people gathered on the streets of Tottenham. Many of the people that took to the streets are demanding justice for the shooting.

3 -- Protests unfold in Israel as 250,000 people take to the streets, demonstrating against an excessively high cost of living. The protests started out small three weeks ago, but rapidly swelled to massive numbers after the "point of recognition" was reached on Thursday.

4 -- 45,000 unionized workers go on strike against Verizon after realizing that corporate elites have been giving them the shaft on wages and benefits. This is one of the largest labor strikes to unfold since the Grand Supercycle bear market started to unfold in 2000.

There is more volatility ahead for the markets and for civilization in general. The next five trading days (August 8 - 12, 2011) are expected to be the most volatile period since the period following the Flash Crash of 2010. We are still on track to complete Minor wave 1 down by early October 2011. Here is an updated chart of the DJIA.

We completed Minuette wave (iii) of Minute wave [iii] down on Friday. The next few trading days will be volatile as Minuette wave (iv) unfolds as a running flat with rapid amplitude fluctuations, followed by a fast downward impulse, Minuette wave (v) to complete Minute wave [iii] down. Volatility should return to normal when Minute wave [iv] starts unfolding.

On the socionomic front, there are several areas to keep an eye on, as they are potential hot spots:

1 -- The recall elections in Wisconsin. Alberta Darling and Luther Olsen are two of the Republican state senators that are facing a recall election during the period of high volatility in social mood. Expect a strong voter turnout with at least one, if not both, thrown out of office by voters.

2 -- There is potential for more protests and demonstrations. France is a possible hot spot (look at the CAC-40, which has been in a rapid decline).

3 -- There is the issue of a coronal mass ejection (CME) hitting the Earth around August 10, 2011. A large CME has the potential of causing blackouts. Given the volatile social mood that is in play, a blackout could easily turn an affected population into an explosive powderkeg of social unrest.

We are going through a period of high volatility following a Minor degree "point of recognition". Expect the volatility to continue until the middle of August 2011.

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