Thursday, August 4, 2011

Flash Crash, the Sequel

Today, we got another flash crash in the stock market. The DJIA plunged 512 points, the S&P 500 plunged over 60 points, and the Nasdaq plunged 136 points. The one thing that we also notice is the absence of positive news and positive spin on the stock market, the economy, and the job market. We have reached a "point of recognition" today. The decline was broad and carried a lot of momentum, which is what we would expect to see in a "third of a third".

The "point of recognition" that we reached today was a relatively small one, as it is the center of Minor wave 1 down. The big one is still over 2 years in the future, to be reached around October 2013.

There is now a lot of clarity in terms of where the stock market is going in the weeks and months ahead. Here is a chart of the DJIA with the projection of how the rest of Minor wave 1 down will unfold, and how Minor wave 2 up will unfold afterwards.

The bear market rally appears to be putting in a head and shoulders top, with the left shoulder peak in April 2010, the top of the head in May 2011, and the right shoulder is likely to peak around March 2012. Minor wave 1 down is taking the stock market back down to the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
The peak of Minor wave 2 up will form the right shoulder peak.

The head and shoulders pattern projects a downside target of around 7200 for the end of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down, with the low point to be reached around September 2012.

Once Minor wave 2 up starts unfolding, optimism should return, along with continued calls for economic recovery and a bull market. However, optimism is not likely to achieve the levels that were achieved in May 2011.

Another significant event is that the DJIA / Gold ratio has breached the March 2009 low. This has significant implications in the months and years ahead, and is yet more evidence that Primary wave [3] down is in progress. Here is a chart of the  DJIA / Gold ratio from 2008 to 2011.

Expect the DJIA (and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq as well) to continue falling faster than gold as "The Great Deflation" continues to unfold with increasing momentum.

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