Monday, August 15, 2011

Point of Recognition Aftermath -- Day 11

Optimism has started to make a return after reaching a Minor degree "point of recognition" that resulted in a small panic. It's been 11 days since the "point of recognition" but we are still seeing a lot of fallout. The stock market has moved off its lows after going into a trading range for most of last week.

Here is an updated chart of the DJIA.

We are still on track to complete Minor wave 1 down by October 2011. However, Minute wave [iii] has taken the markets down too far and too fast, so some volatile sideways movement is expected. The most likely scenario is a triangle for Minute wave [iv] after the rest of Minute wave [iii] is completed, then a downward thrust for Minute wave [v] to complete Minor wave 1 down with a target of around 9950 on the DJIA and 1040 on the S&P 500.

Fallout related to the "point of recognition" is still evident. While optimism is starting to return with some calls for more bull market and economic recovery surfacing, there is still some pessimism as well. Expect calls for more bull market and economic recovery to intensify in the coming days. At the same time, expect the short term and intermediate term fallout to continue as well.

1 -- The Verizon strike continues with no end in sight. This strike is already larger than any labor standoff that occurred around the time that Primary wave [1] down completed in March 2009. The standoff has taken an ugly turn for the worse as Verizon recently resorted to litigation to end the strikes. Expect this standoff to last at least several months as neither the striking workers or the company is budging.

From a larger picture perspective, the Verizon strike is comparable to the 1934 West Coast waterfront strike, the 1934 Toledo Auto-Lite strike, and the Minneapolis Teamsters strike of 1934 in terms of magnitude and duration. This says a lot about the magnitude of the bear market that is unfolding. The big strikes that unfolded in 1934 occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression. The Verizon strike, however, is unfolding in the early part of the larger Grand Supercycle bear market.

As Primary wave [3] down continues unfolding, expect more and more standoffs like the Verizon strike that is unfolding now, with some of the standoffs having the potential of crippling corporations and businesses.

2 -- The Syrian government stepped up its crackdown, utilizing gunboats to put down uprisings for the first time. Authoritarianism has been escalating in many parts of the planet since the start of the year. Expect this trend to continue unfolding. A few days ago, BART closed down cell phone reception to stop a possible protest from unfolding.

There is a new trouble spot in Italy as unions are threatening to go on strike in protest against an austerity package that was recently passed by the government that is aimed at balancing the budget by 2013 to avert economic collapse. A volatile social mood is likely to result in large scale labor strikes lasting for several weeks, if not several months.

Another potential trouble spot to keep an eye on is the Wake County Public School system. This area flared up in November 2009 and has the potential to flare up again in October 2011 with another school board election set to take place. This area has become a battleground between the Koch brothers and their Tea Party allies on one side and the other side are parents, students, and community leaders. If the November 2009 school board elections are any indication, the Wake County Public School system is likely to turn into a massive conflagration of protests with the possibility of large scale teacher strikes (with the support of parents and community) that further cripple the educational system as schools remain shut down for many months during the coming school year. The Wake County standoff has the potential to dwarf the Verizon standoff that is currently unfolding.

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