Wednesday, May 18, 2011

A View of the Great Tribulation

The worst part of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market is decades into the future, but we are already starting to see some glimpses of what the period will be like when we get there.

According to Living Planet Report, humans will need two Earths by 2030 if the current trend of resource consumption continues. The trend, however, will change with "The Great Deflation" unfolding in full force in the coming months and years. Resource consumption will greatly slow down during the worst part of "The Great Deflation" which will change the timing of when resource consumption goes critical. The critical event would likely occur in 2042.

The worst part of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] will start in 2042, which would be Supercycle wave (c). In many ways, 2042 - 2055 will be a lot like 1770 - 1784 -- wars, revolutions, uprisings, authoritarianism, and religious persecution, all unfolding on a global scale. However, it will be worse this time around because there are issues that human civilization will be facing that were never an issue back in the 1770 - 1784 period : Global warming, which will cause a lot of havoc on its own, the fear of an asteroid impact (2007 VK184) in 2048, and chronic resource shortages. That's why I refer to the period of Supercycle wave (c) as "The Great Tribulation" as it will be a period of very hard times for humanity.

First of all, a chronic resource shortage will crash the global economy, resulting in manufacturing corporations and businesses closing their doors, which will eventually help push the unemployment rate to 75% (U6) in the United States by 2055, with similar unemployment levels in Europe as well.

Second, a chronic resource shortage will result in a massive chasm between the upper class / rich and everyone else as essential commodities such as food and water get priced out of reach of all but the top 5%.

Given the negative social mood that will be present during "The Great Tribulation", a chronic resource shortage could easily be used as a justification for starting a war. In addition, it could be more than a coincidence that the start of the chronic resource shortage corresponds with the start of Supercycle wave (c), which is the year 2042.

On the long term, I expect that the start of Grand Supercycle wave [V] in 2055 will be characterized by governments making some very hard choices about resource consumption that will help run the global economy in a more resource efficient manner.

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