Sunday, May 15, 2011

Our Current and Future Path

Here is an update on our current position within the larger Elliott wave sequence. The larger picture still remains the same. With the blow-off top possibly in its final days, it's time to assess where we are and where we are going.

The long term trends have not changed, as shown by our current position at the largest degrees of trend:

Ultra Millennium wave ((III))    1400 - 11000+  Modern and Future Civilization
Super Millennium wave ([1])    1400 - 4400+    Modern and Future Civilization
Millennium wave ((1))              1400 - 2233      Modern Civilization

The Millennium degree trend is still up.

Within Millennium wave ((1)), it is clear that the first three Grand Supercycle waves have already completed. We are in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, which started in 2000.

Here's a chart of the DJIA from 1915 to 2055, showing the projected wave path of the DJIA in the years and decades ahead.

Given that Grand Supercycle wave [IV] must stay within the trend channels associated with Millennium wave ((1)) with perhaps a throw-under at the end of the correction, I lean heavily towards a flat. The bear market is just getting started and we are yet to enter the heart of the abyss. The bear market should end in 2055, which would also correspond with a Kondratiev cycle low point.

Within Grand Supercycle wave [IV], we are still in the initial leg down, which is Supercycle wave (a). It is clear that Supercycle wave (a) is unfolding as an expanded flat, with Cycle wave a and Cycle wave b completed and Cycle wave c in progress. Since an expanded flat is a 3-3-5 pattern, we should expect Cycle wave c to unfold as a five wave impulse. Within Cycle wave c, only Primary wave [1] is completed and we are very close to completing Primary wave [2].

Here is a chart of the DJIA from 1998 to 2021, showing the projected wave path of Supercycle wave (a).

The projected wave path of Supercycle wave (a), of course, paints a picture of deflation unfolding with increasing momentum over time. It is for that reason that I call the period "The Great Deflation". So far, "The Great Deflation" has been unfolding in a punctuated fashion. This will change with the start of Primary wave [3] down, when deflation will unfold in full force.

Here is a chart of the DJIA from 2007 to 2015, showing the portion of Cycle wave c that has unfolded so far, plus a projection for a portion of Primary wave [3] down. Expect Primary wave [3] to last 55 - 60 months. The bear market is projected to continue sliding down the "Slope of Hope" until Oct 2013, when the center of Primary wave [3] is reached.

The point of recognition is arrowed on the chart. That's when economists and market analysts start to realize that a major depression is in progress. Until the center of Primary wave [3] is reached, there will be numerous calls for a bottom and reassurances of recovery by economists, market analysts, and politicians. In the early part of Primary wave [3] down, economists will likely say that "it's just a double dip recession".

Another aspect of "The Great Deflation" is a great bull market in the US Dollar that started in 2008.

Here's a chart of the US Dollar Index from 1998 to 2021, showing the projected wave path of the rest of Cycle wave I.

As shown in the chart, the down trend in the dollar, which started in the 1700s, ended in 2008. The 300 year bear market in the dollar is clearly too big to be a Grand Supercycle degree correction, it is most likely Millennium wave ((2)). The projected wave path of the US Dollar Index also paints a picture of deflation unfolding with increasing momentum over time.

While Primary wave [3] down unfolds in the stock market, economy, and job market, Primary wave [3] up will unfold in the US Dollar Index. The end of "The Great Deflation" will correspond with the peak of Cycle wave I in the US Dollar Index. 13 years is definitely a reasonable duration for a Cycle degree advance within a larger bull market, and in addition, retrace the 32 year ending diagonal (1976 - 2008) within the guideline range of 10 - 15 years.

We did not have a "Great Recession" that recently ended. The current bear market is not in the same league as the Great Depression, so we are not in the "Second Great Depression" either. We are in a major depression. I think that the Crisis of the Roman Republic is a better comparison to the magnitude of the bear market that is unfolding and the hard times that are coming. I propose to call the current period, Grand Supercycle wave [IV], the "Crisis of the Western World".

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