Monday, April 18, 2011

Economic Corrective Periods

While we wait for Primary wave [3] down to start, we'll look at the different types of economic corrective periods that take place over the course of human civilization. There are generally only two terms that are used in economic circles: "recession" and "depression", although the terms "major recession" and "major depression" are used from time to time. There is a third term that should be used -- "dark age", which is reserved for economic corrective periods that are clearly too big to call a depression.

It's best to classify economic corrective periods in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle. After all, the economy follows the stock market and thus traces out the same wave path as the stock market does (in terms of real money). It's cleaner that way. There is already a basis for this type of classification, as depressions have already been linked to Supercycle degree bear markets.

In general:

Primary degree bear markets result in recessions
Cycle degree bear markets result in major recessions
Supercycle degree bear markets result in depressions
Grand Supercycle degree bear markets result in major depressions
Millennium (and larger) degree bear markets result in a dark age

Now for the descriptions in detail:

Recession

A recession is a relatively small economic corrective period that generally lasts about 1 year. Recessions result from Primary degree bear markets. The unemployment rate (U6) generally reaches a high of 6% to 9% at the end of the period. Recessions occur every 7 years on average. Recessions never result in deflation. Almost all losses in the job market in a recession are from service and retail jobs as lower demand temporarily results in layoffs. Banks and government are generally unaffected by recessions. Recessions can be identified as far back as the early 1800s.

Here's a list of all the recessions that occurred since 1932:

Primary wave [2]     1946 - 1948          Recession
Primary wave [4]     1960 - 1962          Recession
Primary wave [2]     1977 - 1980          Recession
Primary wave [4]     1986 - 1987          Panic (Recession in 1990 - 1991)


Major Recession

A major recession is a moderate sized economic corrective period that generally lasts 4 years. Major recessions result from Cycle degree bear markets. The unemployment rate (U6) generally reaches a high of 12% to 15% at the end of the period. Major recessions occur every 25 years on average. Major recessions result in more protracted job layoffs over a longer period of time, and declining professions suffer substantial losses. Around half of major recessions result in deflation, as was the case for the major recession of 1918 - 1921 and the major recession of 1937 - 1941. Corporate earnings generally take a substantial hit during major recessions. Periodic bank failures generally occur during major recessions, although the strongest banks are still unaffected. Governments take a moderate hit on their tax revenue, but are generally able to adapt without much trouble. Major recessions can be identified as far back as the Renaissance.

Here's a list of major recessions from as far back as the 1500s:

Renaissance (4 of 6 major recessions identified)

Cycle wave II       1514 - 1520      Major Recession
Cycle wave IV     1587 - 1600      Major Recession
Cycle wave II       1660 - 1667      Major Recession
Cycle wave IV      1676 - 1695     Major Recession

Industrial and Technological Revolutions

Cycle wave II        1800 - 1810     Major Recession
Cycle wave IV       1826 - 1830    Major Recession
Cycle wave II        1875 - 1881     Major Recession
Cycle wave IV       1918 - 1921     Major Recession
Cycle wave II        1937 - 1941     Major Recession
Cycle wave IV       1966 - 1974    Major Recession


Depression
  
A depression is a large economic corrective period that generally lasts 8 to 15 years. Depressions result from Supercycle degree bear markets. The unemployment rate (U6) reaches a high of 20% to 30% at the end of the period. Depressions result in a moderate deflationary collapse and a substantial destruction of wealth. Layoffs are even more protracted as deflation results in a cascade of defaults in both the private and public sectors. Bank failures and bankruptcies are generally widespread with only the strongest banks and corporations surviving through the period in one piece. Depressions usually result in trade wars, currency wars, and austerity measures as tax revenue substantially dries up from rising unemployment. Depressions occur every 75 years on average, and can be identified as far back as the Roman Period. The two most recent depressions are well characterized.

A list of depressions follows:

Roman Period

Supercycle wave (II)     600 BC - 580 BC    Depression
Supercycle wave (IV)   509 BC - 493 BC    Depression
Supercycle wave (II)     343 BC - 338 BC    Depression (Uprising of Latium allies in 
                                                             Latin war)
Supercycle wave (IV)   265 BC - 242 BC    Depression (First Punic War)
Supercycle wave (II)     54 - 68                   Depression (Year of the four emperors, 
                                                             plus Nero)
Supercycle wave (IV)    162 - 177              Depression

Modern Civilization  (4 of 6 have unfolded, the last 2 are in the future)

Supercycle wave (II)     1470 - 1484            Depression
Supercycle wave (IV)    1637 - 1648           Depression
Supercycle wave (II)      1835 - 1859          The Long Depression
Supercycle wave (IV)    1929 - 1932           The Great Depression

Major Depression

Major depressions are massive in duration and severity, generally lasting 40 - 80 years. Major depressions result from Grand Supercycle degree bear markets. The unemployment rate (U6) generally goes as high as 50% to 70% at the end of the period. Major depressions result in a severe deflationary collapse that is accompanied by rapid destruction of wealth. The high unemployment is due to a massive cascade of debt defaults that causes virtually all corporations, banks, and businesses to implode. Trade wars, currency wars, and austerity measures are severe in magnitude as tax revenue rapidly dries up. Major depressions generally occur every 300 years and can be identified as far back as the Late Bronze Age.

Late Bronze Age (1 of 2 identified)

Grand Supercycle wave [IV]     1200 BC - 1053 BC   Major Depression

Roman Period

Grand Supercycle wave [II]       407 BC - 390 BC    Major Depression
Grand Supercycle wave [IV]     135 BC - 30 BC      Major Depression (Crisis of the 
                                                                       Roman Republic)

Modern Civilization

Grand Supercycle wave [II]      1720 - 1784         Major Depression
Grand Supercycle wave [IV]     2000 - 2055        Major Depression

Dark Age

A dark age is an extremely massive corrective period in the economy and job market. A dark age results from a bear market of Millennium or larger degree and generally last 150 years or more. The unemployment rate (U6) reaches 95% - 99% at the end of the period. A dark age results in a deflationary collapse of extreme magnitude in which virtually all wealth is destroyed. In a dark age, there is a total collapse of infrastructure and even the largest and most resilient of corporations, banks, and businesses implode, as well as a breakdown of government at all levels. A dark age generally occurs every 1000 years and can be identified as far back as the Neolithic Revolution period.

A list of dark ages from 10000 BC follows (not all are identified)

Super Millennium wave ([2])   c7000 BC - c6800 BC    Dark Age
Super Millennium wave ([4])   c3500 BC - c3200 BC    Dark Age
Millennium wave ((4))               933 BC - 700 BC         Dark Age
Ultra Millennium wave ((II))      337 - 1400                   Dark Ages



As indicated before, there is a major depression in progress. So far, the major depression has unfolded in the form of the economy collapsing in terms of real money (GDP in terms of gold) since it started in 2000. The reason why the nominal and real GDP continues to rise is that the dollar has been devalued as a result of government, banks, corporations, businesses and even individuals getting leveraged to the hilt with credit and debt. When Primary wave [3] down starts, the economy will start collapsing in nominal terms as well. More on that later.

1 comment:

  1. In addition, the work pressure and financial pressure are the two factors which could cause depression in men. Elderly people do not feel depressed most of the times as they will have a satisfaction in their life. For more info: "Cognitive Behavioural Therapy"

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