Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Single Payer in 2022?

In the last few days, all eyes have been on the fallout in the town hall meetings as constituents express their anger over the GOP in the House voting to end Medicare for all practical purposes. Even as the Primary degree bear market rally continues in its final stages, the undercurrents of negative social mood are already coming to the surface. The town hall meetings have received a lot of news coverage. Some sources follow:

1 -- MSNBC - House Republicans Regroup amid Medicare Anger
2 -- Daily Kos -- Anger on Display at Republican town hall meetings over Medicare and taxes
3 -- Think Progress -- Bedlam erupts in town hall in Orlando

There is a political aspect to the development as well, and the Democratic Party has wasted no time going after the GOP for the anti-Medicare vote. As I indicated in an earlier post, no democrat voted for Rep. Paul Ryan's anti-Medicare bill. Now, the Democratic Party has already started putting out ads calling out the GOP in the House for the vote, as detailed here.

There is a larger term picture unfolding, which goes back to 2009 when the Obama Administration initiated the campaign for health care reform in the United States. There is more information about the health care reform process here. While the health insurance companies focused all of its efforts trying to defeat "Obamacare" through lobbying, the real nemesis -- deflation -- was lurking underneath the surface, poised to wreck havoc upon the resumption of the larger downtrend. It's a lot like the scene from the movie Pitch Black when Riddick says, "it isn't me you should be worried about" as darkness engulfed the landscape.

The true threat to health insurance companies isn't "Obamacare", its deflation. The last time we had a deflationary collapse, insurance companies imploded. When the worst part of "The Great Deflation" starts later this year with the commencement of Primary wave [3] down, wage deflation will create an insurance death spiral that will eventually cause the health insurance companies to collapse by 2017.

I am going to make a bold prediction here. We will get single payer implemented in the United States in 2022. After "The Great Deflation" ends, we will have a long reprieve period. The Democratic Party will have control over the United States government at that time, and with the health insurance companies out of the way, it will be very easy to get a single payer health care system passed. The trend has already started as the state of Vermont is actually working on such a system even now.

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