Bear Market Politics

The events that have been unfolding in the political arena in the last several days are indicative of a bear market, not a bull market. It is quite obvious that there is a lot of polarization in the politics, and that polarization has been increasing at a steady clip over just the last 11 years.

Not too long ago, we were facing the prospect of a government shutdown. I previously addressed the topic in an earlier post, which can be accessed here: (Shutdown narrowly averted)

Today, Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan, which would have ended Medicare for all practical purposes, went for a vote in the House. All Democrats voted "no" on the measure. All but 4 Republicans voted "yes" on the measure. This development speaks volumes about the polarization in the political arena. The GOP has been steadily moving farther to the right as the bear market unfolded. The development is discussed in the news such as MSNBC and Daily Kos.

The socionomic implications of this development are enormous. We are still in the early phase of a Grand Supercycle degree bear market. Bear markets result in polarized and radical politics with an "us vs them" mentality. We are already seeing it take place on the GOP side of the equation.

We are in the last part of a Primary degree bear market rally. When the next leg down (Primary wave [3]) starts, expect the political arena to be even more polarized than it is now as social mood rapidly heads south. Expect the GOP to accelerate even farther to the right during that time.

The real concern, however, is the type of politics that will unfold during Primary wave [5] down, which would be the Palin Administration Period (2017 - 2021). I expect that Medicare and Social Security will get repealed during that time under the pretense of balancing the federal budget. Even now, 65% of Tea Party constituents support Paul Ryan's budget proposal, which foreshadows the hard times to come in the last part of "The Great Deflation".