Monday, April 23, 2012

A Runoff Election in France

As a preview to the main attraction in the United States in November 2012, a runoff election is scheduled to take place in France on May 6, 2012 in which Sarkozy (the incumbent) will square off against Hollande (the challenger) for the position of President. Sarkozy has been president of France since 2007.

The reason why the runoff election in France is important is that it provides potential clues (from a socionomic perspective) to how the November 2012 election in the United States will play out. On May 6, 2012, we will be approaching a business cycle high point -- which means that the intermediate term trend in social mood is still bullish, while social mood is expected to become increasingly bearish in the second half of 2012.

Here is an updated chart of the CAC-40, which reflects the social mood in France:


As the updated chart shows, the CAC-40 is tracing out an regular flat for Supercycle wave (a) as per the main wave count with Cycle waves a and b complete and the first two subwaves of Cycle wave c completed with Primary wave [3] down in progress. While the DJIA took out the May 2011 high, the CAC-40 is still well short of doing so, indicating that the rally from the October 2011 low is a bear market rally, namely Minor wave 2 of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down, in which there was a standard 61.8% retracement of Minor wave 1 down. In addition, Minor wave 2 unfolded as a 5-3-5 zigzag. From the peak of Minor wave 2 up, the CAC-40 has given back a substantial portion of the gains in a five wave decline (Minuette wave (i) down) that is close to completion. The CAC-40 should get a bounce (Minuette wave (ii) up) with a rally up to around 3500 in June 2012 before resuming the larger downtrend (Minor wave 3 down).

The top election issues in France are the same as in the United States: the economy and jobs. While Sarkozy finished the first round in second place with 25% of the vote behind Hollande (28% of the vote), there are still a lot of votes up for grabs in the runoff election on May 6, 2012. It will be a very close election -- the CAC-40 is still early enough in Primary wave [3] down that Sarkozy should still be able to win re-election --- but it will be a very tough fight to the finish.

So far, social mood has held up better in the United States (as indicated by the DJIA) than it has in France (as indicated by the CAC-40). A Sarkozy win in France would therefore bode well for Obama winning re-election in November 2012 from the perspective of the socionomic perspective. How the runoff election on May 6, 2012 is therefore a very important indication of social mood in the western world.

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