Thursday, April 5, 2012

Next Phase of Housing Collapse Ahead

Even as optimism over a possible housing recovery continues to unfold in the mainstream media, there are signs that the next phase of the housing meltdown is about to come underway with a new wave of foreclosures in the pipeline. In spite of the housing market undergoing a larger decline than the decline that unfolded during the Great Depression, we are still seeing calls for a bottom and a recovery in the housing, such as calls for a recovery as published on the Wall Street Journal. The fact that we are still seeing calls for a recovery is an indication that the housing market is still sliding down the "Slope of Hope" (there is more hope for a recovery than there is fear of a fall even as prices continue to decline).

Ever since the housing bubble burst in 2005, real estate prices have been in a long term decline as the bubble continues to deflate. Just as progression does not unfold in a straight line, bear markets do not unfold in a straight line. With every bounce that has unfolded within the larger decline in the housing market, there have been attempts to call a bottom and a recovery. There has been a bounce in the housing market in the last few months, which economists and journalists have taken as a sign that a recovery is unfolding, but is really yet another dead cat bounce that will soon give way to new post-bubble lows.

The bottom is still a long way down. Before there can be a bottom, there has to be a point of recognition that the housing market is in a long term bear market trend. The point of recognition may not come until around 2025 (the center of Primary wave [A] of Cycle wave y within a W-X-Y structure for Supercycle wave (a)).

The next wave of foreclosures is coming, which is apparent even to the mainstream media as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures after a slowdown last year following the "robo-signing scandal". There is also a large shadow inventory backlog that must be worked through before any real housing recovery is possible. However, the next wave of foreclosures is likely to be much worse than what is being forecast by economists and the mainstream media as the effects of a social mood decline following the business cycle high point in June 2012 will usher in the next decline in the job market as around 10 million people lose their jobs between June 2012 and June 2016, which will greatly increase the number of people losing their homes through foreclosure and accelerate the decline of real estate prices.

At the climax of the meltdown in housing, which is expected to occur around 2042 as "The Great Deflation" comes to its epic conclusion, there will be a historic buying opportunity as people that successfully make it through the deflationary collapse without getting financially wiped out will be able to buy the house of their dreams for pennies on the dollar. At the climax of the deflationary collapse, there is expected to be a lot of disdain for real estate with bearish sentiment pervasive in the mainstream media and the political arena.


  1. 2042 are you crazy ? With $700trillion in derivatives out there this whole thing will be over well before then. Or do you seriously believe we will just drip lower for the next 30 years?

  2. The FFT guy gave a really good S&P update today, and where the market is headed in the short term / long term. He is Spooky accruate in the past, and it is a must read for all!!.