Friday, July 1, 2011

The Rise of Secessionism

As we celebrate the 4th of July weekend with fireworks, it is important to recognize that the birth of the United States in 1776 was a result of a secessionist movement in the American colonies and the desire to break away from the British Empire. The declaration of independence was followed by the Revolutionary War.

From a socionomic perspective, secessionism is associated with bear markets (usually Cycle degree or larger). Bear markets are associated with increasing polarization and smaller social units, which eventually result in secessionist movements over time.

The formation of the United States in 1776 was the result of secession from the British Empire, and is associated with Grand Supercycle wave [II].

As the current bear market continues to unfold, secessionist movements are picking up steam. Last month, Pima County got the ball rolling on attempting to secede from Arizona and form a new state. Just today, a group of counties are moving towards secession from California, again with the aim of creating a new state.

There are likely many more fault lines than just the two listed above. The developments of the last couple of years contrasts with the breakup of Virginia to form a new state, West Virginia, just before the Civil War started. The breakup of Virginia occurred in the late stages of a Supercycle degree bear market (Supercycle wave (II)), whereas we are still in the early stages of the current bear market, which has serious implications down the road. The fact that secessionist movements are unfolding in the early stages of the bear market can only mean that the current bear market is of larger degree than the ones that produced the Long Depression and the Great Depression, in other words, the current bear market is Grand Supercycle degree.

As "The Great Deflation" starts unfolding in full force, expect more secessionist movements. One area to watch is the state of Washington as the counties of Eastern Washington already expressed a desire to form a new state with Spokane, WA as the capital back in 1991 during a Primary degree bear market in the S&P 500. This will surely flare up again in the coming years, if not months from now.

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