Sunday, March 27, 2011

The Big Picture, part 3

At the end of the last post, I have shown that we ended a Supercycle degree advance, which means that we are facing at least a depression in the economy and the job market. Depending on our current position within the larger Grand Supercycle degree advance, it is possible that we also ended a Grand Supercycle degree advance as well, which has very serious implications.

Making that determination requires looking even farther back. The DJIA only goes as far back as 1896, which is far enough back to show a good chunk of a Supercycle degree advance that preceded the Great Depression. This indicates that the Supercycle degree advance that ended in 2000 is Supercycle wave (III) or Supercycle wave (V).

When Ralph Elliott originally pioneered the Wave Principle, he had data going from 1854 - 1941 to work with. Before the DJIA existed, the Axe-Houghton Composite Index existed, which was started in 1857. He labeled the period 1857 - 1929 was Supercycle wave (III), the Great Depression as Supercycle wave (IV), and the period after as the early stage of Supercycle wave (V). The labeling was based on the appearance of an apparent triangle pattern in the DJIA that spanned from 1929 - 1941 and the observation that triangles only appear in fourth waves, B waves, double-threes, or the final X wave in a combination.

In the late 1970s, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles released a chart of U.S. stock prices going back to 1789. The chart was created by splicing the DJIA from 1896 to the Cowles Commission Index from 1871 to the Cleveland Trust Company from 1831 to prices uncovered from their independent research from 1789 to 1830.

The chart of U.S. stock prices from 1789 is already suggesting that we also ended a Grand Supercycle degree advance in 2000. This has very serious implications -- namely, we are facing at least a major depression in the economy and job market. The correction will dwarf the Great Depression in terms of severity and duration.

Here's a chart of the DJIA equivalent from 1695 - 2011, showing that the Grand Supercycle degree advance started in 1784 and ended in 2000. The period from 1720 - 1784 gives a hint that major depressions are massive in duration and severity and is clearly identified as a Grand Supercycle bear market.

In terms of wave counts discerned so far, here's what's known so far:

Grand Supercycle wave [II] or [IV]    1720 - 1784,  Major Depression
Grand Supercycle wave [III] or [V]    1784 - 2000,  Industrial and Technological 

The Grand Supercycle degree advance that ended in 2000 subdivides into Supercycle waves as follows:

Supercycle wave (I)     1784 - 1835,  Early Industrial Revolution
Supercycle wave (II)    1835 - 1859,  The Long Depression
Supercycle wave (III)   1859 - 1929,  Late Industrial Revolution
Supercycle wave (IV)   1929 - 1932,  The Great Depression
Supercycle wave (V)    1932 - 2000,  Technological Revolution

What is clearly evident is that we didn't have a "Great Recession" that ended. We are in either a major depression or a dark age. To find out which one it is, we must determine our current position within the larger Millennium degree advance. That will be in the next post.      

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