Saturday, March 26, 2011

The Big Picture, part 2

Since the "Great Recession" would be considered a major recession if it was the entire correction, then it follows that we ended a Cycle degree advance under that scenario. However, the goal is to look at the big picture to determine out current position within the Elliott Wave sequence, and thus be able to determine whether the worst is over or still yet to come.

The starting point, therefore, is to determine our position within the larger Supercycle degree advance.

Here's the chart of the recent Cycle degree advance that ended before the so-called "Great Recession" started.

The chart is the DJIA, which shows the entire Cycle degree advance from 1974 - 2000.

The Cycle degree advance subdivides into Primary waves as follows:

Primary wave [1]               1974 - 1977,  Early Computer Age
Primary wave [2]               1977 - 1982,  Recession
Primary wave [3]               1982 - 1986,  Late Computer Age
Primary wave [4]               1986 - 1987,  Panic of 1987  (Recession in 1990 - 1991)
Primary wave [5]               1987 - 2000,  Internet Age

The next task is to determine if the Cycle degree advance is wave I, wave III, or wave V within the larger Supercycle degree advance. If the Cycle degree advance is wave I or wave III, then the correction is completed and the worst is over. If, however, the advance is wave V, then the correction is not completed and we are facing at least a depression in the economy and job market.

The next chart goes farther back, from the end of the Great Depression in 1932 and continuing through 2011. The chart shows the larger Supercycle degree advance.

Doing a wave count of the advance since 1932, it is evident that we didn't just end a Cycle degree advance in 2000, we also ended the larger Supercycle degree advance as well. The Supercycle degree advance started in 1932 and ended in 2000.

The Supercycle degree advance subdivides into Cycle waves as follows:

Cycle wave I                1932 - 1937,   The New Deal
Cycle wave II               1937 - 1941,   Major Recession
Cycle wave III             1941 - 1966,   Atomic Age
Cycle wave IV             1966 - 1974,   Major Recession
Cycle wave V              1974 - 2000,   Computer and Information Age

Preceding the Supercycle degree advance is the Great Depression, which was a Supercycle degree correction that took place from 1929 - 1932. With that in mind, the Great Depression would be labeled either Supercycle wave (II) or Supercycle wave (IV), and the advance that took place afterward from 1932 - 2000 would be either Supercycle wave (III) or Supercycle wave (V).

Part 3 will continue the determination process, looking at our current position within the even larger Grand Supercycle degree advance.

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