Monday, March 12, 2012

Super Tuesday Aftermath and the Road Ahead

Super Tuesday has come and gone in the GOP Primary. Mitt Romney didn't collapse outright on the Super Tuesday elections, but he didn't close the deal on getting on a runaway path to the nomination. Just before the big elections started, there was a lot of talk from the mainstream media that it was going to be a big night for Mitt Romney. When the results came in for the Super Tuesday elections, it became crystal clear that the GOP Primary is going to be a long choppy affair all the way to the end as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum splitting the states with Newt Gingrich winning Georgia.

The original forecast in December 2011 for the collapse of Mitt Romney was based on the simple expanded flat scenario with Primary wave [3] down currently in force. Mitt Romney has lasted longer than first thought because positive social mood persisted longer than first thought as a bullish social mood would tend to favor Mitt Romney while an increasingly bearish social mood would tend to favor Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich due to the voter tendency to elect radical candidates.

The GOP Primary now heads to the deep South, which under normal conditions would favor Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. With social mood poised to go south in the coming weeks, Mitt Romney will lose his momentum.

As for social mood, here is a chart of the DJIA from the October 2011 low. The stock market (as per the main count) is tracing out a triangle (Intermediate wave (Y)) as part of a complex structure for Primary wave [A] up.

Since the A, B, and C legs of the triangle are simple zigzags, then we should expect wave D to be the complex leg. Minor wave D could unfold as a combination (expanded flat - zigzag - zigzag) or a double zigzag. However  Minor wave D of the triangle unfolds, the downside target is 11250 on the DJIA and 1160 on the S&P 500, both to be reached in late April 2012. The decline should be followed by the E leg of the triangle which should unfold as a sharp three wave rally to 13750 on the DJIA and 1440 on the S&P 500 by late June 2012. There is a 1 in 4 chance that the E lag of the triangle will truncate, which would put the orthodox high of the triangle around 12500 on the DJIA and 1300 on the S&P 500.

Here is an updated longer term chart of the rally from the March 2009 low.

While the D leg of the triangle is unfolding, increasing bearish social mood will make success increasingly difficult for Mitt Romney. The trend already started with Rick Santorum cruising to an easy win in Kansas. During the D leg of the triangle, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich will steadily cut into Mitt Romney's delegate lead. The Texas group of states (which traditionally favors conservatives) will be up for election during the D leg of the triangle.

When the E leg of the triangle commences in late April 2012, increasingly bullish social mood will allow Mitt Romney to regain momentum as the last part of the GOP Primary draws to its choppy conclusion.  The California group (which normally favors moderates) will be up for election during the final part of the triangle.

The GOP Primary is going to be a long, drawn out affair with a very high probability that no candidate reaches the required number of delegates to win the nomination. By the time the GOP Convention starts, the advance from the March 2009 low will already be finished with the first part of Primary wave [B] down in progress. Increasingly bearish social mood in the second half of 2012 should favor a scenario where Rick Santorum wins the GOP nomination in a brokered convention.


  1. As ever..always fascinating and provoking posts.
    I can't imagine Sant' beating his highness Obama. No matter how bad the economy is in Q3, looks like Obama gets a second term.

    Would you agree?

    1. That's exactly what I have been forecasting for a number of months. Obama wins a second term by a narrow margin. The 2012 election will play out a lot like the 2004 election.

      Obama's organizational strength will allow him to win a second term, but a lot of democrats in Congress will be thrown out of office.