Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The Fall of Mitt Romney

In the last few days, potential voters have been souring on Mitt Romney as evidenced by new polls that are showing that Newt Gingrich is surging in Florida in the aftermath of a strong performance in South Carolina. As usual, journalists in the mainstream media attempt to explain Mitt Romney's fall from grace and attribute the fall to his status as a wealthy elite. Even Jon Stewart has gotten in the act, mocking Mitt Romney for trying to justify making more money in a day than most people make in a year.

Less than a week ago, journalists in the mainstream media were talking about the inevitability of Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee as the large number of articles exemplify:

1 -- -- Sense of inevitability grows around Romney candidacy.

2 -- Daily Kos (Nov 2011) -- Why it is going to be Mitt Romney.

3 -- Intrade -- Mitt Romney's chances of winning the nomination rose as high as 91% on the Intrade site several days ago before a sharp fall started to unfold.

4 -- New York Times -- The Inevitable nominee

Since the fall from grace, many people in the mainstream media attribute Mitt Romney's fall from grace to his status as a wealthy elite. There is just one problem with the supposed connection between the fall from grace and his wealth -- Mitt Romney's status as a wealthy elite has been well known to the American people at least as far back as 2007. The key to the reason for the fall is why now.

Mitt Romney's fall from grace was completely foreseeable using the socionomic model. Consider the forecast of the GOP Primary that I made back in early December 2011, which included the forecast for Mitt Romney's fall from grace. There are a couple of important points to the forecast:

While Minor wave 2 up is unfolding, Mitt Romney will have the wind at his back.

Once Minor wave 3 down starts unfolding, success becomes increasingly difficult for Mitt Romney as the bearish social mood brings out the voter tendency to pick increasingly radical candidates.

Social Mood is the reason why Mitt Romney is on the decline. Even after Newt Gingrich won big in South Carolina, the mainstream media was still convinced that Mitt Romney would ultimately win the nomination. Social mood is getting increasingly bearish again. Even though Minor wave 2 up is still unfolding in the nominal DJIA, the peak of Minor wave 2 up is already in for the DJIA / gold ratio (see this chart). The DJIA / gold ratio has proven to be a very strong indicator of where the approval rating of politicians is going in the future. Minor wave 3 down is already in progress for the DJIA / gold ratio.

Mitt Romney has peaked and has nowhere to go but down. With social mood becoming increasingly bearish as seen in the DJIA / gold ratio, voters will have a stronger tendency to pick increasingly radical candidates. Once Minor wave 3 down in the nominal DJIA starts unfolding in earnest, Mitt Romney's candidacy will collapse, which will make either Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul the GOP nominee.

1 comment:

  1. Love your writings...and am in complete agreement - however - I am quite concerned here as of the past few days and the movement in the dollar...and stocks.

    Do you have any concern that the "bernanke machine" may thwart our plans/outline for the coming year?

    As it stands....most elliot wave theory is being put to the test - as wave 2 cannot exceed the high of wave 1 - and in many many indexes we are extremely close.