There is now unmistakable evidence that a death spiral is in progress in health care, particularly health insurance premiums. The death spiral is in its early stages. Both bubbles and death spirals end the same way -- they both end in a bust. The bear market will have a strong influence on how fast the death spiral unfolds in the years ahead.
While bubbles are motivated by exuberant optimism, death spirals are motivated by a combination of greed on the part of insurance companies and people dropping their coverage because they can no longer afford it. They differ in how they are fueled, but they both end the same way once they go critical.
According to the latest report from the Kaiser Family Foundation, health insurance premiums rose 9% last year with health insurance premiums for family health benefits exceeding $15,000 a year. Health insurance premiums have risen 113% since 2001, much faster than the rate of consumer price inflation. There has been a lot of speculation that health insurance companies are raising premiums at a fast clip in anticipation of new rules under "ObamaCare" that go into effect in 2012, which would require health insurance companies to justify annual premium increases of over 10%.
Even if premium increases were to be limited to 10% a year starting in 2012 due to a constraint implemented by "ObamaCare", a death spiral could still unfold. What matters is how fast premiums are rising relative to wages. Wage deflation has been unfolding since the bear market started in 2000. As the worst part of "The Great Deflation" starts unfolding with Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016), deflation will unfold in full force, which includes wage deflation. In the coming years, as "The Great Deflation" unfolds in full force, wages are likely to fall around 25% a year. The result is that health insurance premiums rise 35% a year relative to wages starting in 2013.
The death spiral is still in its early stages, but we are already seeing the effects of the death spiral as rising health care costs are resulting in people (even those that have coverage) putting off necessary health care. Medical bills are already blamed for 62% of the bankruptcies that are filed, and in 78% of the cases, the person had health insurance. The death spiral in health care is already recognized by a number of people.
The more devastating effects of the death spiral are still in the future. Once the effect of "The Great Deflation" is factored in, it is very clear that "ObamaCare" cannot stop the death spiral. A combination of wage deflation, rising unemployment, and taxpayer dollars drying up at every level of government will render "ObamaCare" ineffective as the vast ocean of money needed to provide subsidies to help people afford coverage starting in 2014 won't be available. Rising unemployment and wage deflation will have the effect of causing people to drop coverage as it becomes unaffordable, which will accelerate the death spiral.
By 2017, health insurance premiums for family health coverage will be around $58000 a year in today's terms and $26500 a year in nominal terms. This underscores the amplifying effect of a deflationary collapse on a death spiral. This would be the point where the death spiral goes critical. The Great Depression resulted in insurance companies imploding back in the early 1930s. In the same way, "The Great Deflation" will result in the collapse of health insurance companies in 2017. Once the health insurance companies go under, the entire health care system will rapidly unravel as hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies go under in quick succession as revenue dries up. The health care system in the United States will collapse in 2017.
There is good that will come from the collapse of the current health care system. Bear markets act to purge everything that stands in the way of future growth and prosperity. Back in late April 2011, I predicted that the collapse of the current "for-profit" health industry will lead to the implementation of a single payer system at the federal level in 2022. I still think that a single payer system is in the future after the current deflationary collapse ends.
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Rising Tide of Bearish Social Mood
As we head towards the low point of Minor wave 1 down within the much larger Primary wave [3] down, we continue to see a rising tide of bearish social mood. The rising tide is manifesting itself in many ways, from continued protests, increased strife and discord in the political arena, increasing recognition that a trend change has taken place in the economy, and yes, more downgrades from Moody's.
Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, with Minute wave [v] of Minor wave 1 down in focus.
We entered the strongest portion of Minute wave [v] down on late Tuesday, with Minuette wave (iii) in progress and on track to continue until around October 4, 2011 with a target of 10100 in the DJIA.
For many months, I had been predicting that Minor wave 1 down would end in early October 2011. It is now possible to make a more precise forecast -- Minor wave 1 down should end around October 10, 2011 with a target of 9950 for the DJIA and 1025 for the S&P 500.
The rising tide of bearish social mood has been manifesting itself in many ways in the last several days:
1 -- A large protest has been unfolding in Wall Street in the streets of New York City. The protest, which has involved over a thousand people, have been part of a campaign "Occupy Wall Street" with the aim of calling for structural economic reforms and calling out the misdeeds of the wealthy. Even though the protest has been relatively peaceful, police have blocked demonstrators from reaching the New York Stock Exchange, and a number of demonstrators have been arrested.
2 -- We face the threat of another government shutdown as the GOP and the Democratic Party continue their game of chicken over disaster aid to communities affected by Hurricane Irene.
3 -- Attacks in the political arena have become more aggressive in the last several days as President Obama takes his jobs legislation campaign directly on Rep. John Boehner's home turf, and the GOP stepped up attacks against Obama with insistent accusations of "class warfare". Yesterday, Elizabeth Warren blasted the GOP's class warfare charge as well as their tax cuts for the rich.
4 -- As evidence of increasing recognition of a trend change in the economy, George Soros is now saying that "the double-dip recession is in progress in the United States". In the context of the larger picture, however, the trend change won't be recognized by economists and analysts until the center of Intermediate wave (1) (of Primary wave [3] down) is reached, which should occur around May 2012.
5 -- Moody's downgraded three of the "too big to fail banks" on Wednesday, with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc, all having their credit ratings lowered. The downgrade indicates that the banks are in worse financial shape now than they were before the TARP bailout in 2008. No downgrade occurred in 2008. The downgrade is also an indication that the Obama Administration will end up bailing out the "too big to fail" banks around May 2012. The original TARP was launched just before the center of Primary wave [1] down was reached in October 2008. Look for the Obama Administration to launch TARP 2 around May 2012, near the center of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down.
The DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 should hit the lows of the year around October 2011, then they rally for the rest of the year, completing Minor wave 2 up around early January 2012.
Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, with Minute wave [v] of Minor wave 1 down in focus.
We entered the strongest portion of Minute wave [v] down on late Tuesday, with Minuette wave (iii) in progress and on track to continue until around October 4, 2011 with a target of 10100 in the DJIA.
For many months, I had been predicting that Minor wave 1 down would end in early October 2011. It is now possible to make a more precise forecast -- Minor wave 1 down should end around October 10, 2011 with a target of 9950 for the DJIA and 1025 for the S&P 500.
The rising tide of bearish social mood has been manifesting itself in many ways in the last several days:
1 -- A large protest has been unfolding in Wall Street in the streets of New York City. The protest, which has involved over a thousand people, have been part of a campaign "Occupy Wall Street" with the aim of calling for structural economic reforms and calling out the misdeeds of the wealthy. Even though the protest has been relatively peaceful, police have blocked demonstrators from reaching the New York Stock Exchange, and a number of demonstrators have been arrested.
2 -- We face the threat of another government shutdown as the GOP and the Democratic Party continue their game of chicken over disaster aid to communities affected by Hurricane Irene.
3 -- Attacks in the political arena have become more aggressive in the last several days as President Obama takes his jobs legislation campaign directly on Rep. John Boehner's home turf, and the GOP stepped up attacks against Obama with insistent accusations of "class warfare". Yesterday, Elizabeth Warren blasted the GOP's class warfare charge as well as their tax cuts for the rich.
4 -- As evidence of increasing recognition of a trend change in the economy, George Soros is now saying that "the double-dip recession is in progress in the United States". In the context of the larger picture, however, the trend change won't be recognized by economists and analysts until the center of Intermediate wave (1) (of Primary wave [3] down) is reached, which should occur around May 2012.
5 -- Moody's downgraded three of the "too big to fail banks" on Wednesday, with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup Inc, all having their credit ratings lowered. The downgrade indicates that the banks are in worse financial shape now than they were before the TARP bailout in 2008. No downgrade occurred in 2008. The downgrade is also an indication that the Obama Administration will end up bailing out the "too big to fail" banks around May 2012. The original TARP was launched just before the center of Primary wave [1] down was reached in October 2008. Look for the Obama Administration to launch TARP 2 around May 2012, near the center of Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] down.
The DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 should hit the lows of the year around October 2011, then they rally for the rest of the year, completing Minor wave 2 up around early January 2012.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
A View of the Coming Plutocracy
A plutocracy is in the forecast for the United States during the "Green Technology Age", which will start in 2021, immediately following the end of "The Great Deflation". Right now, I would characterize the United States as a hybrid of democracy and plutocracy, much like the economic conditions that existed from 1842 to 1852 (Cycle wave b of Supercycle wave (II)). The United States is rapidly moving towards becoming a full-fledged plutocracy, and the country is more plutocratic during the Obama Administration Period than it was during the Bush (43) Administration Period.
Part of the basis for forecasting a plutocracy has to do with wave personality, as B waves have weak breadth and are technically weak. For the economy, weak breadth translates to a strong concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 1%. The coming "Green Technology Age" would be Supercycle wave (b), which should be a parallel of economic conditions that existed in the United States from 1842 - 1852, but with an even stronger concentration of wealth at the top and even weaker economic fundamentals even as the nominal GDP hits new highs in the early 2040s.
One of the more obvious hints of a coming plutocracy is the widening gap between the top 1% and the working class, which is already larger than it was in 1929 and the trend is still unfolding at a rapid clip. In 2017, we enter the "Bridge to Plutocracy" as the Bachmann Administration works in tandem with the Koch Brothers (more on that later) to set the United States on an inexorable course to a full-fledged plutocracy, that is, the rule of the nation by the top 1%.
On "Main Street", the last of the family wage jobs is predicted to be purged by 2015, and the last of the living wage jobs is predicted to be purged by 2020. When it becomes impossible for the average Joe and Jane on "Main Street" to support a family even with both parents working full time, a full-fledged plutocracy is born -- that point should happen in 2021.
We are already seeing precursors of the coming plutocracy in terms of working conditions as well. A case of point underscoring that trend is the working conditions in the warehouses owned by Amazon Corporation, in which employees are routinely forced to work in an environment where the heat index soars as high as 115 degrees. We are seeing a trend of falling wages and increasingly unsafe working conditions as the wealth gap between the working class and the top 1% continues to widen.
The article Allentown : Inside Amazon.com's warehouse details examples of many of the horror stories associated with increasingly unsafe working conditions that come with the inexorable trend towards a full-fledged plutocracy.
Even now, we are seeing indications of a coming plutocracy in the United States, in which a full-fledged plutocracy will be in place starting in 2021. The wealth gap will continue to widen over time. In 2010, the low end of the top 1% earned $250,000 a year, 10 times the median wage of the working class. In 2021, the ratio will rise to 40 to 1, and by 2042, the ratio will rise to 200 to 1. The CEO to worker wage ratio will skyrocket even faster.
Part of the basis for forecasting a plutocracy has to do with wave personality, as B waves have weak breadth and are technically weak. For the economy, weak breadth translates to a strong concentration of wealth in the hands of the top 1%. The coming "Green Technology Age" would be Supercycle wave (b), which should be a parallel of economic conditions that existed in the United States from 1842 - 1852, but with an even stronger concentration of wealth at the top and even weaker economic fundamentals even as the nominal GDP hits new highs in the early 2040s.
One of the more obvious hints of a coming plutocracy is the widening gap between the top 1% and the working class, which is already larger than it was in 1929 and the trend is still unfolding at a rapid clip. In 2017, we enter the "Bridge to Plutocracy" as the Bachmann Administration works in tandem with the Koch Brothers (more on that later) to set the United States on an inexorable course to a full-fledged plutocracy, that is, the rule of the nation by the top 1%.
On "Main Street", the last of the family wage jobs is predicted to be purged by 2015, and the last of the living wage jobs is predicted to be purged by 2020. When it becomes impossible for the average Joe and Jane on "Main Street" to support a family even with both parents working full time, a full-fledged plutocracy is born -- that point should happen in 2021.
We are already seeing precursors of the coming plutocracy in terms of working conditions as well. A case of point underscoring that trend is the working conditions in the warehouses owned by Amazon Corporation, in which employees are routinely forced to work in an environment where the heat index soars as high as 115 degrees. We are seeing a trend of falling wages and increasingly unsafe working conditions as the wealth gap between the working class and the top 1% continues to widen.
The article Allentown : Inside Amazon.com's warehouse details examples of many of the horror stories associated with increasingly unsafe working conditions that come with the inexorable trend towards a full-fledged plutocracy.
Even now, we are seeing indications of a coming plutocracy in the United States, in which a full-fledged plutocracy will be in place starting in 2021. The wealth gap will continue to widen over time. In 2010, the low end of the top 1% earned $250,000 a year, 10 times the median wage of the working class. In 2021, the ratio will rise to 40 to 1, and by 2042, the ratio will rise to 200 to 1. The CEO to worker wage ratio will skyrocket even faster.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Solyndra Gate
The Obama Administration's involvement with Solyndra Corporation has been in the news for the last several days. Even though the mainstream media hasn't characterized the issue as a scandal, the bearish social mood that will continue to unfold over the next 12 months will likely make this a drag on President Obama's re-election prospects in November 2012.
As far as the mainstream media is concerned, it's the perception of guilt that matters, rather than actual guilt. This will have significant implications down the road as bearish social mood builds in the months ahead. In bull markets, people accentuate the positive aspects of politicians and are forgiving of weaknesses, but in bear markets, people accentuate the negative aspects of politicians and overlook the positive. The socionomic model supports the possibility that the Obama Administration's involvement with Solyndra Corporation could have enough legs in the mainstream media to carry over well into 2012, not to mention the possibility that the GOP will use the issue for their own political gain.
The story broke several days ago with the revelation that the Obama Administration issued a total of $528 million in federal loans from early 2009 to late 2011 to the company. The Obama Administration frequently touted the corporation as a model for development of a clean energy program. There were a number of damaging developments that unfolded in the last 2 years:
1 -- In 2009, the Energy Department inspector general warned that the DOE lacked the necessary quality control for the loan guarantee program, which was created to support clean energy programs that could not get conventional bank loans due to elevated risk.
2 -- In July 2010, the Energy Department had bypassed required steps for funding awards for 5 of 10 applicants that received conditional loan guarantees, according to the Government Accountability Office.
3 -- In March 2011, the Energy Department kept virtually no records on 15 of 18 loan guarantees, according to the DOE Inspector General.
4 -- There had been a number of warning signs as far back as last year that Solyndra was suffering recurring losses and its financial health was deteriorating rapidly. The warning signs were all ignored, and even as recently as May 2011, the company continued its assurance about the prospect for an improving business performance in the later part of the year.
Solyndra Corporation is now on the verge of default, and the fallout from the default threatens to be a drag on President Obama's re-election chances in 2012. The FBI and the Treasury Department has already gotten involved in the investigation of the company and the loan program.
This is a development to keep an eye on. Look for the mainstream media to drag this out as long as possible, since there is a tendency by the media to look for scandals and drag them out when there is a bear market unfolding. Look for the GOP to attack Obama on this issue (perhaps starting on Tuesday). This could be characterized as a scandal by the mainstream media in the very near future.
As far as the mainstream media is concerned, it's the perception of guilt that matters, rather than actual guilt. This will have significant implications down the road as bearish social mood builds in the months ahead. In bull markets, people accentuate the positive aspects of politicians and are forgiving of weaknesses, but in bear markets, people accentuate the negative aspects of politicians and overlook the positive. The socionomic model supports the possibility that the Obama Administration's involvement with Solyndra Corporation could have enough legs in the mainstream media to carry over well into 2012, not to mention the possibility that the GOP will use the issue for their own political gain.
The story broke several days ago with the revelation that the Obama Administration issued a total of $528 million in federal loans from early 2009 to late 2011 to the company. The Obama Administration frequently touted the corporation as a model for development of a clean energy program. There were a number of damaging developments that unfolded in the last 2 years:
1 -- In 2009, the Energy Department inspector general warned that the DOE lacked the necessary quality control for the loan guarantee program, which was created to support clean energy programs that could not get conventional bank loans due to elevated risk.
2 -- In July 2010, the Energy Department had bypassed required steps for funding awards for 5 of 10 applicants that received conditional loan guarantees, according to the Government Accountability Office.
3 -- In March 2011, the Energy Department kept virtually no records on 15 of 18 loan guarantees, according to the DOE Inspector General.
4 -- There had been a number of warning signs as far back as last year that Solyndra was suffering recurring losses and its financial health was deteriorating rapidly. The warning signs were all ignored, and even as recently as May 2011, the company continued its assurance about the prospect for an improving business performance in the later part of the year.
Solyndra Corporation is now on the verge of default, and the fallout from the default threatens to be a drag on President Obama's re-election chances in 2012. The FBI and the Treasury Department has already gotten involved in the investigation of the company and the loan program.
This is a development to keep an eye on. Look for the mainstream media to drag this out as long as possible, since there is a tendency by the media to look for scandals and drag them out when there is a bear market unfolding. Look for the GOP to attack Obama on this issue (perhaps starting on Tuesday). This could be characterized as a scandal by the mainstream media in the very near future.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Minor Wave 2 Begins in France and Germany
The initial decline from the peak of the Primary degree bear market rally has ended in the CAC-40 and the DAX. Minor wave 1 down in both France and Germany were completed two days ago. A strong kickoff (up over 330 points in two sessions for the DAX and up over 100 points in two sessions for the CAC-40) from the low indicates a trend change -- Minor wave 2 up has begun in France and Germany.
Here is a chart of the CAC-40:
Here is a chart of the DAX:
As Minor wave 1 down neared completion, Moody's downgraded the credit rating of two major French banks. The downgrade generated fears in the mainstream media that the debt contagion was starting to spill over into the core of the European Union.
Minor wave 2 up will be a sharp 3 wave rally with a 4 month duration, to be completed in January 2012. This represents a short reprieve period for the core of the European Union. By the middle of December 2011, the mainstream media and the politicians will be convinced that the core of the European Union is protected from the debt contagion that is plaguing much of Europe. In January 2012, Minor wave 3 down will start, and all pretense of containing the debt contagion will be shattered.
On the longer term, social mood is deteriorating faster in Europe than it is in the United States and Canada. The DAX, the CAC-40, and the FTSE 100 should breach the March 2009 lows no later than May 2012. In contrast, the DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 won't breach the March 2009 low earlier than July 2012.
Here is a chart of the CAC-40:
Here is a chart of the DAX:
As Minor wave 1 down neared completion, Moody's downgraded the credit rating of two major French banks. The downgrade generated fears in the mainstream media that the debt contagion was starting to spill over into the core of the European Union.
Minor wave 2 up will be a sharp 3 wave rally with a 4 month duration, to be completed in January 2012. This represents a short reprieve period for the core of the European Union. By the middle of December 2011, the mainstream media and the politicians will be convinced that the core of the European Union is protected from the debt contagion that is plaguing much of Europe. In January 2012, Minor wave 3 down will start, and all pretense of containing the debt contagion will be shattered.
On the longer term, social mood is deteriorating faster in Europe than it is in the United States and Canada. The DAX, the CAC-40, and the FTSE 100 should breach the March 2009 lows no later than May 2012. In contrast, the DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 won't breach the March 2009 low earlier than July 2012.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Shredding the Safety Net
Back in June 2011, upon recognition that Primary wave [3] down is in progress, I had made a number of forecasts concerning social events that are expected to unfold from 2011 - 2016. One of them is the fate of unemployment benefits, which I bring up here.
Extended unemployment benefits will not continue beyond the end of 2011.
Turns out the forecast is going to be fulfilled. The increasing desire for more austerity is not just in the realm of the GOP, even President Obama is participating in the austerity trend as well. The new jobs bill proposes to link unemployment benefits to job training with potential employers. While it appears to be relatively harmless at a first glance, the legislation will have a cataclysmic effect on the unemployed once the effect of "The Great Deflation" is factored in, namely, the fact that major depressions result in the destruction of 90% of corporations and businesses through a cascade of debt defaults.
Another consideration is that in bull markets, people focus on progress and production, while in bear markets, people focus on limits and conservation. This is also true for employers and consumers as well. An increasingly bearish social mood results in consumers cutting back on spending and employers laying off workers. When an increasingly bearish social mood is unfolding, employers won't hire more workers even with tax credit incentives and incentives to hire workers for free. It takes an increasingly bullish (positive) social mood for employers to have the willingness to hire more workers.
President Obama's proposals on unemployment benefits will amount to ending unemployment benefits altogether for all practical purposes. This development is very shocking. Talk about turning the clock all the way back to 1932. I had been predicting that unemployment benefits would be completely purged in 2017, during the Bachmann Administration Period. This move is comparable to Rep. Paul Ryan's "kill Medicare" plan in the sense that in both cases, safety nets end up getting shredded.
The unemployment rate (U6) is expected to hit 60% by the end of "The Great Deflation" in 2021. It's hard to imagine the impact that purging unemployment benefits will have on such a large portion of the United States population. Many of these people will end up being unemployable during the "Green Technology Age" as job creation is expected to be very sluggish (about 80,000 a month for 21 years). We will be reaping the consequences of shredding safety nets in ways that are very hard to imagine.
The austerity trend is relentlessly in force. If the job creation bill does not pass, extended unemployment benefits stop at the end of the year. If the jobs bill passes, say kiss goodbye to unemployment benefits -- even before Michele Bachmann wins the presidency in the 2016 presidential election.
Extended unemployment benefits will not continue beyond the end of 2011.
Turns out the forecast is going to be fulfilled. The increasing desire for more austerity is not just in the realm of the GOP, even President Obama is participating in the austerity trend as well. The new jobs bill proposes to link unemployment benefits to job training with potential employers. While it appears to be relatively harmless at a first glance, the legislation will have a cataclysmic effect on the unemployed once the effect of "The Great Deflation" is factored in, namely, the fact that major depressions result in the destruction of 90% of corporations and businesses through a cascade of debt defaults.
Another consideration is that in bull markets, people focus on progress and production, while in bear markets, people focus on limits and conservation. This is also true for employers and consumers as well. An increasingly bearish social mood results in consumers cutting back on spending and employers laying off workers. When an increasingly bearish social mood is unfolding, employers won't hire more workers even with tax credit incentives and incentives to hire workers for free. It takes an increasingly bullish (positive) social mood for employers to have the willingness to hire more workers.
President Obama's proposals on unemployment benefits will amount to ending unemployment benefits altogether for all practical purposes. This development is very shocking. Talk about turning the clock all the way back to 1932. I had been predicting that unemployment benefits would be completely purged in 2017, during the Bachmann Administration Period. This move is comparable to Rep. Paul Ryan's "kill Medicare" plan in the sense that in both cases, safety nets end up getting shredded.
The unemployment rate (U6) is expected to hit 60% by the end of "The Great Deflation" in 2021. It's hard to imagine the impact that purging unemployment benefits will have on such a large portion of the United States population. Many of these people will end up being unemployable during the "Green Technology Age" as job creation is expected to be very sluggish (about 80,000 a month for 21 years). We will be reaping the consequences of shredding safety nets in ways that are very hard to imagine.
The austerity trend is relentlessly in force. If the job creation bill does not pass, extended unemployment benefits stop at the end of the year. If the jobs bill passes, say kiss goodbye to unemployment benefits -- even before Michele Bachmann wins the presidency in the 2016 presidential election.
Monday, September 12, 2011
Bulls in Control of the Dollar
Last week was a game changer for the dollar. The recent breakout in the US Dollar Index is a very strong indication that a bull market in the dollar is in progress. This post is an update to the blog entry back in late April 2011 when the mainstream media was pronouncing the "death of the dollar" and economists and analysts were writing obituaries on the demise of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
The US Dollar Index rallied initially in May 2011, then was stuck in a "sideways trend" for over 3 months. The early May 2011 low was never taken out. Here is the short term chart of the US Dollar Index.
The May 2011 low marked the end of Primary wave [2] down in the US Dollar Index. From the early May 2011 low, we got an initial kickoff rally, Minute wave [1] up, that unfolded for most of the month. The retracement that followed the rally lasted almost three months as Minute wave [ii] down unfolded as a double zigzag with Minuette wave (x) of Minute wave [ii] taking out the previous high by a small margin.
Now that the breakout happened, we can be confident that the advance in the dollar is just getting started.
Here is a chart showing the intermediate term outlook of the US Dollar Index.
Primary wave [2] down in the US Dollar Index unfolded as a (W)-(X)-(Y) combination correction where Intermediate wave (W) unfolded as an expanded flat, and Intermediate waves (X) and (Y) unfolded as zigzags. The first subwave of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index, Intermediate wave (1) up, is seen advancing the index above the high of Primary wave [1], since the Primary degree third wave is very likely an extended third wave. The upside target for Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index is 93, to be reached in September 2012.
Finally, here is a longer term chart showing the outlook of the US Dollar Index out to 2016.
The target for Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index is 153, to be reached in March 2016. Five years is a reasonable duration for a Primary degree advance in a bull market. The end of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index should correspond with end of Primary wave [3] down in the stock market.
The US Dollar Index is a very important part of the larger picture, namely, "The Great Deflation" unfolding with increasing momentum over time. The end of "The Great Deflation", identified as Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV], should correspond with Cycle wave I up in the US Dollar Index, which should occur around November 2021.
The US Dollar Index rallied initially in May 2011, then was stuck in a "sideways trend" for over 3 months. The early May 2011 low was never taken out. Here is the short term chart of the US Dollar Index.
The May 2011 low marked the end of Primary wave [2] down in the US Dollar Index. From the early May 2011 low, we got an initial kickoff rally, Minute wave [1] up, that unfolded for most of the month. The retracement that followed the rally lasted almost three months as Minute wave [ii] down unfolded as a double zigzag with Minuette wave (x) of Minute wave [ii] taking out the previous high by a small margin.
Now that the breakout happened, we can be confident that the advance in the dollar is just getting started.
Here is a chart showing the intermediate term outlook of the US Dollar Index.
Primary wave [2] down in the US Dollar Index unfolded as a (W)-(X)-(Y) combination correction where Intermediate wave (W) unfolded as an expanded flat, and Intermediate waves (X) and (Y) unfolded as zigzags. The first subwave of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index, Intermediate wave (1) up, is seen advancing the index above the high of Primary wave [1], since the Primary degree third wave is very likely an extended third wave. The upside target for Intermediate wave (1) of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index is 93, to be reached in September 2012.
Finally, here is a longer term chart showing the outlook of the US Dollar Index out to 2016.
The target for Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index is 153, to be reached in March 2016. Five years is a reasonable duration for a Primary degree advance in a bull market. The end of Primary wave [3] up in the US Dollar Index should correspond with end of Primary wave [3] down in the stock market.
The US Dollar Index is a very important part of the larger picture, namely, "The Great Deflation" unfolding with increasing momentum over time. The end of "The Great Deflation", identified as Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV], should correspond with Cycle wave I up in the US Dollar Index, which should occur around November 2021.
Friday, September 9, 2011
Labor Strike Barrage
There has been a steady barrage of labor strikes since the Minor degree "point of recognition" was reached a month ago. One of the events that occurred in the aftermath of the "point of recognition" was the massive Verizon strike in which 45,000 workers went on strike to fight in defense of a living wage and continued health care benefits.
The Verizon strike has since ended, but as I predicted, the barrage of labor strikes continued. Here's the excerpt from the August 15, 2011 blog entry:
"As Primary wave [3] down continues unfolding, expect more and more standoffs like the Verizon strike that is unfolding now, with some of the standoffs having the potential of crippling corporations and businesses."
Since then, we have seen a barrage of labor strikes. Here is a list of some of the more significant labor strikes that have unfolded since the Verizon strike:
1 -- Teachers Union in the midst of an 8 day strike over drug testing in central Illinois. A random drug testing proposal angered many teachers, motivating the teachers union to initiate a labor strike. The start of the school year in the affected district has been delayed as a result of the strike. The state government stepped into the fray as well with State Sen. Dave Koeler (D-Peoria) siding with the teachers and calling the district's drug testing proposal a "power move that avoids the main issues."
2 -- Butte, Montana teachers strike over salary, classes canceled. A labor strike started to unfold after a failure to reach an agreement on a contract over wages and health benefits. The labor strike has resulted in the cancellation of classes in all of its elementary, junior high, and high schools.
3 -- International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 23 in Tacoma is in the midst of a long standoff with the company EGT after the company reneged on its promise to create well-paying jobs at the new terminal. The standoff has resulted in protests and aggressive behavior by union activists, prompting a US district judge to issue an injunction limiting union activity.
As I write this, a large labor strike just started to unfold involving Hyatt hotel workers in four locations. Thousands of hotel workers in Chicago, San Fransisco, Los Angeles, and Honolulu are currently on strike against Hyatt, protesting against low wages, dangerous workloads, and abusive employers that are destroying living wage jobs. Hyatt workers have also called for boycotts at 17 Hyatt properties. This strike is something to keep an eye on -- if the standoff between the workers and the company persists into early 2012, this could ignite a much larger labor strike in which as many as 250,000 workers are involved.
There is another possible labor strike involving Ford workers that is brewing. United Auto Workers (UAW) members at Ford have overwhelmingly voted to initiate a large labor strike after the current contract ends on September 14, 2011. UAW workers are already contending that they have a right to share in the profits of all three of the automakers. This is a development to keep an eye on. There is a very high probability that a labor strike will unfold.
We are seeing a barrage of labor strikes unfold. The developments are a preview of what will unfold in 2012 when Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (1) down starts unfolding. In terms of social mood, third waves are broad, resulting in a much larger cross-section of the populace taking part in a social trend. In terms of labor strikes, this translates into a much larger cross-section of the worker populace taking part in labor strikes in which workers fight for a living wage, better working conditions, and better health benefits, compared to what we are seeing today. 2012 is going to going to be a lot like 1934 -- we will see a labor strike barrage of epic magnitude during the first half of 2012.
The Verizon strike has since ended, but as I predicted, the barrage of labor strikes continued. Here's the excerpt from the August 15, 2011 blog entry:
"As Primary wave [3] down continues unfolding, expect more and more standoffs like the Verizon strike that is unfolding now, with some of the standoffs having the potential of crippling corporations and businesses."
Since then, we have seen a barrage of labor strikes. Here is a list of some of the more significant labor strikes that have unfolded since the Verizon strike:
1 -- Teachers Union in the midst of an 8 day strike over drug testing in central Illinois. A random drug testing proposal angered many teachers, motivating the teachers union to initiate a labor strike. The start of the school year in the affected district has been delayed as a result of the strike. The state government stepped into the fray as well with State Sen. Dave Koeler (D-Peoria) siding with the teachers and calling the district's drug testing proposal a "power move that avoids the main issues."
2 -- Butte, Montana teachers strike over salary, classes canceled. A labor strike started to unfold after a failure to reach an agreement on a contract over wages and health benefits. The labor strike has resulted in the cancellation of classes in all of its elementary, junior high, and high schools.
3 -- International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 23 in Tacoma is in the midst of a long standoff with the company EGT after the company reneged on its promise to create well-paying jobs at the new terminal. The standoff has resulted in protests and aggressive behavior by union activists, prompting a US district judge to issue an injunction limiting union activity.
As I write this, a large labor strike just started to unfold involving Hyatt hotel workers in four locations. Thousands of hotel workers in Chicago, San Fransisco, Los Angeles, and Honolulu are currently on strike against Hyatt, protesting against low wages, dangerous workloads, and abusive employers that are destroying living wage jobs. Hyatt workers have also called for boycotts at 17 Hyatt properties. This strike is something to keep an eye on -- if the standoff between the workers and the company persists into early 2012, this could ignite a much larger labor strike in which as many as 250,000 workers are involved.
There is another possible labor strike involving Ford workers that is brewing. United Auto Workers (UAW) members at Ford have overwhelmingly voted to initiate a large labor strike after the current contract ends on September 14, 2011. UAW workers are already contending that they have a right to share in the profits of all three of the automakers. This is a development to keep an eye on. There is a very high probability that a labor strike will unfold.
We are seeing a barrage of labor strikes unfold. The developments are a preview of what will unfold in 2012 when Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (1) down starts unfolding. In terms of social mood, third waves are broad, resulting in a much larger cross-section of the populace taking part in a social trend. In terms of labor strikes, this translates into a much larger cross-section of the worker populace taking part in labor strikes in which workers fight for a living wage, better working conditions, and better health benefits, compared to what we are seeing today. 2012 is going to going to be a lot like 1934 -- we will see a labor strike barrage of epic magnitude during the first half of 2012.
Monday, September 5, 2011
The Job Market and Social Mood
The job market entered a tipping point last month as the economy has stopped creating jobs. The tipping point took place after three months of increasing exhaustion in the job market in which the economy created less than 100,000 jobs per month. The number of jobs created in July 2011 was revised downward to 87,000. There is a large chance that the August 2011 number will be revised downward to reflect that the job market collapse was in fact commencing last month. In spite of the latest developments, people in the mainstream media continue to show a lot of optimism, which is associated with positive social mood that occurs in a big wave 2 in a bear market.
The next leg down in the job market is in progress, and the forecast is for the economy to wipe out 36 million jobs over the next 5 years, pushing the unemployment rate up to 40% (U6) by 2016. The mass destruction of jobs will unfold in tandem with Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016) in the DJIA and the S&P 500.
We are still in the early part of Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016). Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, reflecting the social mood of the United States population.
We are still on track to complete Minor wave 1 down by early October 2011. There is no question that Minute wave [v] down is in progress. A relatively fast downward impulse is in the forecast for September 2011. The projected downside target for the end of Minor wave 1 down is 10180 for the DJIA and 1040 for the S&P 500.
After the October 2011 low, markets will rally for the rest of the year with the peak of Minor wave 2 up to occur in early January 2012. The target for the peak of Minor wave 2 up is 11850 for the DJIA and 1250 for the S&P 500.
The projected social mood of the United States population during September 2011 is important here as it will determine the outcome of any attempt by the Obama Administration to pass a job creation bill. We already know about the jobs speech that President Obama is about to do on September 8, 2011.
As usual, we are seeing optimism associated with a big wave 2 in a bear market as the mainstream media continues to express optimism on the chances of getting a job creation bill passed through Congress. The optimism, however, is in contrast to the increasing polarization in politics that we have been seeing in the last 2 years as the GOP continues to accelerate farther to the right. The political arena is more polarized now than it was when the debt ceiling crisis was unfolding. As the bearish social mood continues to build throughout September 2011, the result is increasing polarization, increasing discord, and an increase in the "us vs. them" mentality in which people and groups attack opposing groups (the vitriol in the political arena last month testifies to this). With the effects of increasingly bearish social mood on the political arena in mind, there is no chance that a job creation bill will be passed through Congress.
Although many progressive groups have been urging the Obama Administration to directly intervene and put the unemployed back to work, there is no basis for such an event to happen. Let's consider a historical perspective on the matter of direct government intervention in the job market with the intent of putting people back to work.
1 -- The New Deal -- It was launched in 1933 by the FDR Administration after the Great Depression ended earlier that same year.
2 -- Reconstruction -- It was launched in 1865, after the Long Depression ended in 1859.
3 -- Hamiltonian Economic Program -- It was launched in the 1790s, after the "Modern European Major Depression" ended in 1784.
The pattern is very evident -- direct government intervention aimed at putting the unemployed back to work took place after the bear markets ended. With that in mind, we should not expect the Obama Administration to intervene in terms of putting the unemployed back to work. The "Second New Deal", if it happens, is most likely to be initiated in the year 2060, after the current major depression ends in 2055.
Government intervention aimed at putting the unemployed back to work is not guaranteed anyways. The idea that governments can influence the economy is a product of the Keynesian economic model. Major depressions always result in dramatic changes in the character of nations and the character of a nation's government. A case of point is the Renaissance. Both of the economic depressions that occurred during the Renaissance are easily identified -- the first occurred from 1470 - 1484, and the second occurred from 1637 - 1648 in the aftermath of Tulipmania. In both of the cases, the government did not intervene to put the unemployed back to work after the depressions ended, but there was still a vigorous economic recovery that followed the end of the depressions. It is quite possible that the Keynesian economic model will get scrapped altogether in the late 2050s or early 2060s, being seen as a failed model that is riddled full of flaws.
The next leg down in the job market is in progress, and the forecast is for the economy to wipe out 36 million jobs over the next 5 years, pushing the unemployment rate up to 40% (U6) by 2016. The mass destruction of jobs will unfold in tandem with Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016) in the DJIA and the S&P 500.
We are still in the early part of Primary wave [3] down (2011 - 2016). Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, reflecting the social mood of the United States population.
We are still on track to complete Minor wave 1 down by early October 2011. There is no question that Minute wave [v] down is in progress. A relatively fast downward impulse is in the forecast for September 2011. The projected downside target for the end of Minor wave 1 down is 10180 for the DJIA and 1040 for the S&P 500.
After the October 2011 low, markets will rally for the rest of the year with the peak of Minor wave 2 up to occur in early January 2012. The target for the peak of Minor wave 2 up is 11850 for the DJIA and 1250 for the S&P 500.
The projected social mood of the United States population during September 2011 is important here as it will determine the outcome of any attempt by the Obama Administration to pass a job creation bill. We already know about the jobs speech that President Obama is about to do on September 8, 2011.
As usual, we are seeing optimism associated with a big wave 2 in a bear market as the mainstream media continues to express optimism on the chances of getting a job creation bill passed through Congress. The optimism, however, is in contrast to the increasing polarization in politics that we have been seeing in the last 2 years as the GOP continues to accelerate farther to the right. The political arena is more polarized now than it was when the debt ceiling crisis was unfolding. As the bearish social mood continues to build throughout September 2011, the result is increasing polarization, increasing discord, and an increase in the "us vs. them" mentality in which people and groups attack opposing groups (the vitriol in the political arena last month testifies to this). With the effects of increasingly bearish social mood on the political arena in mind, there is no chance that a job creation bill will be passed through Congress.
Although many progressive groups have been urging the Obama Administration to directly intervene and put the unemployed back to work, there is no basis for such an event to happen. Let's consider a historical perspective on the matter of direct government intervention in the job market with the intent of putting people back to work.
1 -- The New Deal -- It was launched in 1933 by the FDR Administration after the Great Depression ended earlier that same year.
2 -- Reconstruction -- It was launched in 1865, after the Long Depression ended in 1859.
3 -- Hamiltonian Economic Program -- It was launched in the 1790s, after the "Modern European Major Depression" ended in 1784.
The pattern is very evident -- direct government intervention aimed at putting the unemployed back to work took place after the bear markets ended. With that in mind, we should not expect the Obama Administration to intervene in terms of putting the unemployed back to work. The "Second New Deal", if it happens, is most likely to be initiated in the year 2060, after the current major depression ends in 2055.
Government intervention aimed at putting the unemployed back to work is not guaranteed anyways. The idea that governments can influence the economy is a product of the Keynesian economic model. Major depressions always result in dramatic changes in the character of nations and the character of a nation's government. A case of point is the Renaissance. Both of the economic depressions that occurred during the Renaissance are easily identified -- the first occurred from 1470 - 1484, and the second occurred from 1637 - 1648 in the aftermath of Tulipmania. In both of the cases, the government did not intervene to put the unemployed back to work after the depressions ended, but there was still a vigorous economic recovery that followed the end of the depressions. It is quite possible that the Keynesian economic model will get scrapped altogether in the late 2050s or early 2060s, being seen as a failed model that is riddled full of flaws.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Education Bubble Going Critical
This post is an update to a post on the education bubble that was put up several months ago, when only a small number of people and groups had awareness of the bubble. We are now seeing evidence that the education bubble is going critical -- either the bubble has burst or it is on the verge of doing so.
Exactly as I predicted several months ago, the collapsing job market played a central role in causing the education bubble to burst. With a collapsing job market, it was only a matter of time before a sufficiently large constituent of people start rethinking whether it is actually worth taking on a large amount of student loan debt.
Given that the collapse of the job market has barely started, it is very likely that the education bubble will unravel in the same way that credit bubble has -- slowly at first, then unraveling with increasing momentum over time. We are likely to see massive damage inflicted on the education system by 2016 as a direct result of the bursting of the education bubble. The nation's education system may not be recognizable in 2021 as most colleges and universities are expected to close their doors forever. Many universities and colleges will be abandoned in 2021, looking a lot like the city scenes from the movie I Am Legend.
The education bubble is falling apart from the top down, as Ivy League and law schools are getting hit the hardest early on, with attendance falling in law schools.
It isn't just the bursting of the education bubble that is significant. We are also seeing an epidemic of scandals associated with the education system. The most significant of the scandals is the Atlanta Public School cheating scandal that broke out in July 2011. Bear markets are when the skeletons come out of the closet as the mainstream media is more likely to look for scandals during that time. It isn't just public schools that have been involved in scandals, but a large number of charter schools have been involved in scandals as well. There is a large list of charter school scandals titled "Charter School Scandals".
The collapsing job market has also created "buyer's remorse" as some college and university graduates have been turning to litigation against their alma maters. Many of such people are those who graduated with a massive amount of student loan debt and unable to land a job.
The education bubble is going critical. Over the next 10 years, the education bubble will implode with increasing momentum, with devastating consequences for those whose livelihoods are tied to the education industry. The education bubble is falling apart from the top down. Ivy league and law schools are being affected now. Expect the implosion of the education bubble to affect public universities and colleges by 2013. By the time the implosion of the education bubble is completed in 2021, even K - 12 schools will have been dramatically affected. Many schools, colleges, and universities will close their doors forever.
Exactly as I predicted several months ago, the collapsing job market played a central role in causing the education bubble to burst. With a collapsing job market, it was only a matter of time before a sufficiently large constituent of people start rethinking whether it is actually worth taking on a large amount of student loan debt.
Given that the collapse of the job market has barely started, it is very likely that the education bubble will unravel in the same way that credit bubble has -- slowly at first, then unraveling with increasing momentum over time. We are likely to see massive damage inflicted on the education system by 2016 as a direct result of the bursting of the education bubble. The nation's education system may not be recognizable in 2021 as most colleges and universities are expected to close their doors forever. Many universities and colleges will be abandoned in 2021, looking a lot like the city scenes from the movie I Am Legend.
The education bubble is falling apart from the top down, as Ivy League and law schools are getting hit the hardest early on, with attendance falling in law schools.
It isn't just the bursting of the education bubble that is significant. We are also seeing an epidemic of scandals associated with the education system. The most significant of the scandals is the Atlanta Public School cheating scandal that broke out in July 2011. Bear markets are when the skeletons come out of the closet as the mainstream media is more likely to look for scandals during that time. It isn't just public schools that have been involved in scandals, but a large number of charter schools have been involved in scandals as well. There is a large list of charter school scandals titled "Charter School Scandals".
The collapsing job market has also created "buyer's remorse" as some college and university graduates have been turning to litigation against their alma maters. Many of such people are those who graduated with a massive amount of student loan debt and unable to land a job.
The education bubble is going critical. Over the next 10 years, the education bubble will implode with increasing momentum, with devastating consequences for those whose livelihoods are tied to the education industry. The education bubble is falling apart from the top down. Ivy league and law schools are being affected now. Expect the implosion of the education bubble to affect public universities and colleges by 2013. By the time the implosion of the education bubble is completed in 2021, even K - 12 schools will have been dramatically affected. Many schools, colleges, and universities will close their doors forever.
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