Monday, June 27, 2011

Tea Party Resurgence

As another indication of the larger bear market trend back in force, we are seeing a resurgence of the Tea Party in the political arena. In the last several weeks, we have seen Sarah Palin's approval rating bottom and start rising again while Obama's approval rating falls after the bin Laden bounce evaporated.

During the bear market rally that unfolded from March 2009 to May 2011, Obama's approval rating held steady at around 50% while Sarah Palin's approval rating continued to fall. With the advent of Primary wave [3] down, the trends have changed with the Tea Party starting its second resurgence and Obama's approval rating on the decline.

A recent development is the surge of Michele Bachmann in the polls as she is now even with Mitt Romney in Iowa. Today, Michele Bachmann announced her candidacy for President in Iowa. The development is indicative of a declining social mood within the larger bear market trend. This is yet another precursor of the coming Palin Administration Period as Michele Bachmann is a strong proponent of the Tea Party.

Although Mitt Romney is the presumed GOP frontrunner now, increasing polarization in the political arena will change the picture. Mitt Romney will be seen as "Obama-like" by the Republican Party, and the recent term "Obamneycare" coined by Tim Pawlenty underscores that trend. Mitt Romney will probably win New Hampshire and Nevada in the early part of the Republican Primary, but he is already losing ground in Iowa and South Carolina. Expect either Tim Pawlenty or Michele Bachmann to win the Republican nomination.

The Tea Party is already starting to regain steam, as evidenced by Michele Bachmann's rise in the Iowa polls. This trend is just getting started. This is a precursor to what will characterize Primary wave [5] down : The Palin Administration Period from 2017 to 2021 as the worst of "The Great Deflation" unfolds in full force.

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