The Fall of Obama

All the indicators are now pointing to President Obama approaching a peak of monumental scale with a massive decline (in the "Obama brand") to follow in the aftermath. The peak appears to be imminent if not already upon us. The DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 are also indicating a peak of monumental size is in the making as well as Primary wave [A] up (2009 - 2012) has run its course with a massive wedge collapse in progress.

Obama's approval rating is currently at 54% (and peaking), having rose from 48% just before the 2012 elections, but still forming a lower high relative to the May 2011 peak in which Obama's approval rating reached a high of 61%. The lower high is in play in spite of the markets putting in a higher high relative to May 2011.

A few days ago, President Obama was named "Person of the Year" on Time Magazine and appeared on the magazine cover. The magazine cover picture can be seen here. The Magazine Cover Indicator is a peaking signal --- it is an indication that the "Obama brand" is approaching a peak of massive scale and a multi-year decline is imminent.

Here is a chart of the DJIA with the Magazine Cover Indicator event labelled:

Notice that the event occurred close to the peak of Minute wave [b] up within a larger double zigzag structure. Since the event, the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 closed down roughly 2% for the week with the DJIA declining 158 points earlier today.

The primary count still favors the double zigzag structure for the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016), with the double combination (expanded flat - x wave - zigzag) structure being the alternate scenario. The proposed Minute wave [b] within Minor wave W has retraced 90% of the proposed Minute wave [a] in the Wilshire 5000, but still well short of the 90% threshold for the DJIA and the S&P 500.

The implication of a wedge collapse in the stock market is a fast decline in social mood. With social mood going south fast, approval ratings will also take a big hit with Obama's approval rating possibly falling below 30% by June 2013. On the short term, the United States is facing a "fiscal cliff crisis" with President Obama and John Boehner desperately hoping to reach a deal on taxes and spending before the clock expires. The United States is also facing a "debt ceiling crisis" as well with the $16.4 trillion debt limit on the verge of being hit (if not already there) with the Treasury Department using accounting maneuvers to buy time for Congress to act on raising the debt ceiling. A rapid increase in bearish social mood due to a wedge collapse is expected to result in increasing strife and discord between President Obama and John Boehner with a dangerous game of chicken involving the US economy once again in play. The best case scenario is for the can known as the "Bush Tax Cuts" to get kicked down the road once again. The worst case scenario is for the United States to actually go off the fiscal cliff due to strife and discord in the political arena with austerity measures in the form of tax increases and spending cuts to go into effect as soon as we enter the year 2013. It is possible that going off the fiscal cliff (if it were to happen) will lead to another credit rating downgrade on US government debt as we approach the climax of Intermediate wave (A) of Primary wave [B] down on June 2013.

In spite of the fiscal cliff drama and the debt ceiling about to be hit, the American populace is still very optimistic about Obama's accomplishments in the years ahead, with many already comparing Obama to FDR:

1 -- FDR vs Obama -- "Obama invokes FDR in his convention speech".  The American populace already see Obama as a parallel of FDR.

2 -- Politico -- "Obama Channels Teddy Roosevelt". Even centrist Republicans are displaying optimism on Obama's future legacy. This shows that the bullish optimism is broad based and not confined to the liberal factions in the American populace.

3 -- Suite 101 -- "Comparing Barack Obama to Franklin D Roosevelt". Even in early 2009 with the climax of Cycle wave w (2000 - 2009) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042) unfolding, people were still very optimistic that Obama would be the new FDR.

Comparisons to FDR are a product of linear extrapolation. With the 2012 election completed with Obama winning a second term, just about everyone is making large extrapolation leaps with the prediction that Obama will have an FDR type of legacy in 2017. The tendency for large extrapolation leaps is yet another peaking signal, along side the "Magazine Cover Indicator".

The "Obama brand" is expected to collapse in the coming years as Primary wave [B] (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) unfolds with the peak about to be reached before the multi-year decline starts. During the wedge collapse, Intermediate wave (A), Obama's approval rating is expected to fall to the 28% to 32% range by June 2013. During Intermediate wave (B) up, which should unfold from June 2013 to June 2014, Obama's approval rating will get a sizable bounce, but put in a lower high (low to mid 40s approval rating) relative to the current approval rating peak of 54%. During Intermediate wave (C) down from June 2014 to June 2016, markets are expected to embark on a massive waterfall decline. With Obama's approval rating falling to the low 20s by 2016, bearish social mood is expected to result in the GOP attempting to get Obama impeached starting in 2015 -- the impeachment is expected to be successful in the House, but expected to fail in the Senate (Democrats will be united in keeping Obama in power). Obama's approval rating could easily fall below 20% by the time the 2016 election takes place.

Hard Times, Not End Times

As we approach the fateful date, December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia continues to grow. With social mood going south again with the retracement of the 2 year bearish rising wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and Wilshire 5000 in progress, the doomsday phobia is likely to grow more and more pervasive as we go through the last few days before reaching December 21, 2012.

Here is an updated chart of the DJIA, showing the retracement of the rising bearish wedge in progress:

The primary count is that the wedge collapse is Intermediate wave (A) down of Primary wave [B] down (2012 - 2016) of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021) with the wedge collapse unfolding as a double zigzag. There are other possibilities, of course, on how the wedge collapse could unfold, as it could also unfold as a zigzag, triple zigzag, or even a double combination structure (expanded flat -- x wave -- zigzag). The double combination scenario would involve the markets putting in a marginal new high (the rally off the November 2012 low point is clearly corrective) before commencing lower to complete Minor wave W down as an expanded flat, which would be followed by Minor wave X (any corrective pattern) and then Minor wave Y down unfolding as a zigzag.

Here is a chart showing the wedge collapse in detail:

Markets may be able to find support at the area shown by the red box. The support level is very significant because it is the level associated with the most recent Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. Losing this level as support is considered bearish, so the markets are expected to hold the level (11000 - 11250) as support for at least a short time. However, the larger bear market trend will be in control, so the support level is expected to be lost quickly as Minor wave Y of the double zigzag unfolds, which would then be followed by a full retracement of the 2 year rising bearish wedge a short time later.

As we approach December 21, 2012, the doomsday phobia is already in full swing, of course augmented by social mood going south at Primary degree within a much larger bear market. In spite of NASA debunking the 2012 doomsday scenario, there are still at least 1 out of every 10 people that believe that the world is ending just days from now.

Here is a Google Trends chart from 2004 to present with the search term "2012 apocalypse"

Here is a chart showing the trend in the last 90 days (the trend is up):

Bear markets bring hard times for humanity. But there is a great deal of difference between hard times and end times. The Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000 is going to result in hard times for many people, but it certainly won't result in the end of the world or the end of human civilization. People were able to weather through the last bear market of comparable magnitude (Grand Supercycle wave [II] down (1720 - 1784)) and human civilization was never in danger of coming to its end back then. We will still be here in 2013, and for that matter, human civilization will still be around when the bear market ends in 2118.

Skyscraper Indicator Signals a Top

For the third time in less than 15 years, the Skyscraper Indicator is issuing a peaking signal. The indicator was pioneered in January 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, research director of Dresdner Klienwort Wasserstein,  showing that the world's tallest buildings have risen on the eve of economic downturns.

In the last 15 years, the skyscraper indicator signaled a top in 1997-1999, 2007, and now. A chart of the DJIA of the last 15 years with the important events labelled puts it in perspective:

As the chart indicates, the Petronus Towers in Malaysia were built in 1997 with a height of 1461 ft (448 meters), indicating that a large degree peak was imminent. The completion of the towers was quickly followed by the Asian Financial Crisis, a small taste of the economic major depression that would follow less than 3 years later. Just 2 years later, an even larger building, the Taipei 101 in Taiwan was built, soaring 1671 ft (512 meters) high. The completion of the Taipei 101 was closely followed by the end of the Grand Supercycle degree advance that started in 1784 and the beginning of the economic major depression, the "Crisis of the Western World".

A long topping process has been in progress since the onset of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market, with exuberant optimism stubbornly holding its ground. After the initial decline following the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000, the DJIA, the S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000 rallied to new highs in 2007. Just before the 2007 peak was reached, a skyscraper of unprecedented height started to take shape in Dubai as the Burj Khilifa rose 2717 feet (833 meters) into the sky upon completion. Shortly after the building was completed, the "Panic of 2008" struck the western world. The "Panic of 2008" climaxed in March 2009 at the end of the first phase of "The Great Deflation".

As we entered the second phase of "The Great Deflation" in March 2009, exuberant optimism returned within a year. Three years into the bear market rally, at the top of Primary wave [A] of Cycle wave x up (2009 - 2021), China is planning to build the world's tallest skyscraper in just 90 days (!). The new building, Sky City, is planned to be 220 stories, rise 2749 feet (838 meters) high, and be completed around March 2013.  As with the other two peaks, the construction of the building is expected to herald a multi-year decline in the stock market as well as a multi-year decline in the job market, which will be Primary wave [B] of Cycle wave x.

The second phase of "The Great Deflation" is expected to end in 2021, which would be the end of Primary wave [C] (2016-2021) of Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up. The second phase could easily climax with nations, states, cities, and even corporations, endeavoring to build skyscrapers well over 3000 feet (920 meters) tall just before the onset of the third phase of "The Great Deflation", Cycle wave y (2021 - 2042), in which a massive deflationary collapse unfolds in full force.

The Skyscraper Indicator has proven to be a very strong predictor of impending economic downturns, going all the way back to the 1800s. Here is a longer term chart of the DJIA showing the correlation between the building of skyscrapers and stock market peaks:

As shown in the chart above, when the Skyscraper Indicator issues a peaking signal, the peak is Cycle degree or higher, with the accompanying economic downturn being a major recession or larger. Due to the 21 year topping process that has been playing out since the onset of the bear market in 2000, social mood has remained very optimistic. With the construction of a massive skyscraper in China on the table, the indicator is issuing a peaking signal and another down-trend is imminent if not already in progress.

The Next Phase of the Apple Bubble

The next phase of the "Apple Bubble" has commenced. After peaking at $704 a share in late September 2012 and completing the ending diagonal that started in late May 2012, the retracement of the ending diagonal is in progress. The retracement of the ending diagonal is unfolding quite fast with two important support levels already taken out on the way down. In spite of the fast decline, there is a case to be made that the "Apple Bubble" did not burst and that new highs will be reached in the future.

Here is a close-up chart of Apple, showing the ending diagonal and the retracement in progress:

The first important support level that was broken after the peak was reached is the lower trend channel associated with Minor wave 5 of Intermediate wave (3) up. A clean break through the lower trend channel was the first sign of a trend change at Minor degree from up to down. The second important support level that was broken is the lower wedge line associated with the ending diagonal. Notice the acceleration in selling pressure that took place after the lower wedge line was broken -- this is very indicative of a wedge collapse in progress.

A close examination of the structure of the decline from the peak shows that the structure is corrective. This means that the "Apple Bubble" has not burst yet, and the bursting event is still in the future. The wedge collapse is unfolding as a double zigzag, meaning that it would be wave A of a triangle or (much more likely) an expanded flat. The structure is most likely Minor wave A of a larger expanded flat. Within Minor wave A, Minute waves [w] and [x] are completed as per the preferred count, and the second zigzag, Minute wave [y], is still unfolding. A relationship of Minute wave [y] = 2.618 * Minute wave [w] would give a downside target of 452 for the end of Minor wave A. The ideal time for the end of the wedge collapse is December 4, 2012, which would make the time needed to complete the wedge collapse half of the time needed to construct the ending diagonal.

The larger picture is that Intermediate wave (4) down is in progress, unfolding as an expanded flat, which would then be followed by a five wave advance, Intermediate wave (5) up, which would also end the advance at Primary and Cycle degree as well. Here is a chart of Apple updating the larger picture:

The final stage of the "Apple Bubble" should start around June 2013 and last for 1 year, ending around June 2014. A final upside target of $875 to $1000 a share at the peak of the bubble is still in play. Once the final stage of the bubble is completed, the bubble will burst. The ripple effect from the bursting of the "Apple Bubble" will be global -- Just as the South Sea Company was a global bellwether in 1720, Apple is a global bellwether now, so the bursting of the bubble will result in financial fallout on a global scale, including the implosion of the job market throughout the Western World. The unraveling of the bubble should be quite swift, with the company's stock losing perhaps 90% of its value by June 2016.

The final stage of the "Apple Bubble" will play a central role in fueling a powerful rally in the stock market from June 2013 to June 2014, propelling the S&P 500 from 925 to 1550 and the DJIA from 9300 to 14400, as well as a robust wave 2 bounce in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Once the "Apple Bubble" bursts, the rally will unravel very fast, dropping the DJIA down to 5500 and the S&P 500 to around 525 by June 2016.

Frankenstorm, the Next Harbinger of Climate Change

All eyes have been focused on this year's 100 year storm known as Hurricane Sandy, which peaked at Category 2 strength before making landfall in New Jersey with 80 mph winds. The hurricane has been labelled as "Frankenstorm" by a number of people, seeing the storm as a product of warmer than usual water off the Atlantic coast and man-made global warming that is just now starting to take effect.

The hurricane has already moved inland and the damage from the storm is only just now starting to become apparent. In many areas, the damage is one for the record books:

1 -- The storm left 8.6 million people without power, mostly in New Jersey and New York.

2 -- New York City went dark with the lights out in Manhattan as storm surges reach a record 13.88 feet with many downtown streets flooded before receding.

3 -- Gasoline shortages have come up in New Jersey in the aftermath of the storm.

4 -- Property damage is already estimated to be $20 billion or more with more surveying of the aftermath still taking place. The numbers could be much higher, in the order of $50 billion, once the dust settles. This would make Hurricane Sandy one of the most expensive natural disasters in US history.

5 -- The NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges were closed for 2 days, the first 2 day closure due to weather since 1888. Trading resumed today with markets mostly trading in a narrow range.

The storm was over 1000 miles in diameter at its peak with hurricane force winds as far as 175 miles from the center and tropical force winds as far as 500 miles from the center. Some areas in West Virginia received up to 3 feet of snow, Maryland was hit by a massive blizzard and even the Great Lakes area was affected with winds as high as 60 mph in Chicago with waves over 30 feet high. This is the second year in a row that the northern Atlantic coast was hit with hurricane force winds (see this post about Hurricane Irene and its aftermath last year). Before Hurricane Irene, one would have to go all the way back to 1954 to find a comparable event, when Hurricane Hazel struck the same region of the Atlantic coast. Going even farther back, no comparable event is found until 1888, when the Great Blizzard of 1888 struck.

Having the same area hit by a 100 year storm 2 years in a row can only be due to the effects of man made climate change that is now starting to kick in as a result of the abuse of fossil fuels that has been taking place for many decades. Even with the evidence mounting that man made global warming is for real, there is still evidence that people in the political, business, and corporate world are still in denial (and will be for many more decades):

1 -- The Obama Administration continues pushing forward with the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, with many protesters arrested. The arrest of people protesting the Keystone XL project was taken to the next level with the arrest of Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, who has been critical of both Obama and Romney on energy policy.

2 -- Lobbyists for the coal industry go on a massive ad buying spree advertising the benefits of coal exports with much of the coal slated to enter Chinese markets. The result is greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere at an accelerated clip.

3 -- The mainstream media continues to be in denial over the reality of man made climate change, as climate change is not even brought up at all even as news coverage on the storm and its aftermath continue around the clock. The same is true with newspaper coverage in which there is a lot of coverage on the storm, but no mention of climate change.

4 -- Oil companies are in full denial over the reality of climate change as evidenced by an oil capacity construction boom in which efforts are under way to increase oil production capacity to 110 million barrels a day by 2020. The increased oil production capacity is projected to raise the planet's average temperature by as much as 8 degrees Celsius.

 During bull markets (when social mood is trending positive), governments have no problem coming up with the money to rebuild in the aftermath of disaster and helping affected communities get back on their feet. It is another matter when a long term bear market is unfolding. During long term bear markets, governments are constrained by budget cuts, tax revenue drying up, and the general mindset that comes with negative social mood, namely, limits and conservation. It is especially the case when a deflationary collapse is unfolding in full force. We are already getting a taste of the implications of trying to rebuild communities affected by natural disaster during a long term bear market.

Last year, in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, Rep. Ron Paul was quoted as saying "there is no magic with FEMA" and House Rep. Eric Cantor wanted the cost of disaster relief to be offset with cuts elsewhere. At that point, I had made a forecast concerning FEMA:

It would not at all be farfetched if FEMA were abolished altogether in 2017 during the Bachmann Administration Period under the pretense of balancing the budget.

There is already evidence that this forecast is on track to being fulfilled in 2017. Mitt Romney is now on record for wanting to cut FEMA out of federal spending, sending the responsibility of disaster relief to the states, under the pretense of balancing the budget, having made the plan known during a GOP Primary debate. Mitt Romney labelled spending on disaster relief as "immoral" during the debate, saying that deficit reduction and debt reduction have higher priority. Austerity measures that are set to kick in due to the "fiscal cliff" will also compromise FEMA's ability to respond to natural disasters with a loss of $878 million in annual funding in the pipeline.

The ability of government to respond to natural disasters is an issue that people should be thinking about, considering that one of the implications of "The Great Deflation" is budget cuts at all levels of government. In particular, if a major hurricane were to strike a populated area during the third phase of "The Great Deflation" (Cycle wave y down (2021 - 2042) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042)), the affected areas will very likely be on their own with power remaining shut down for a number of years and rebuilding efforts in the affected areas delayed for years (if not a decade or more) due to austerity measures in play during that time.

On the longer term, Hurricane Sandy is a harbinger of the effects of climate change that will play out during "The Great Tribulation" (Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118)). The worst of man made global warming is very likely to unfold during that time, possibly with the Atlantic coast hit with hurricanes of Category 5+ on an annual basis. There is already recognition among scientists that man made global warming is for real. It will be a very long time before people in the political, business, and corporate world, along with the mainstream media, finally come to a recognition that man made global warming is for real -- that point should occur when the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) is reached and result in the "Global Warming Panic". By then, the full force of the effects of climate change will already be playing out throughout the world.

Four More Years of Obama

With all three of the presidential debates completed, the election is looking to be a close contest. The closest parallel to the 2012 presidential election is the 2004 presidential election, in which the incumbent of that time, Bush 43, won a second term by a narrow margin.

From the perspective of social mood, bear markets normally result in incumbents getting thrown out of office by a landslide, as was the case with Herbert Hoover in the 1932 presidential election at the low of Supercycle wave (IV) down and Martin Van Buren in 1840 during Supercycle wave (II) down (1835 - 1859).

The 2012 presidential election, however, is taking place in a mixed mood environment, resulting from a very large bear market rally off the March 2009 low. It was the same way in the 2004 presidential election as well, with a 5 year bear market rally, Primary wave [B] up (2002 - 2007) of Cycle wave w down (2000 - 2009) with a mixed mood environment in play.

In a mixed mood environment, the candidate with the best ground game and the highest level of organizational strength will be the one that wins. George W. Bush (Bush 43) won a second term by a narrow margin in 2004. Bush 43 had a stronger ground game than John Kerry did due in part to the Koch-ALEC cabal and the organization of the religious right. In the current presidential election, President Obama is on course to win a second term by a narrow margin. Unlike the 2008 election in which Obama rode a massive wave of voter anger (from the "Panic of 2008") all the way to the White House, the 2012 election will prove to be much harder and will take a great amount of effort to win. President Obama's superior organizational strength is what will allow him to win a second term in the midst of a mixed mood environment.

The bear market rally off the March 2009 low appears to be incomplete and needs one more five wave rally to complete the structure. The rally should unfold through election day and peak about a third of the way into November 2012, as the chart below illustrates:

The chart above shows Minor wave 5 of the 2 year bearish rising wedge, Intermediate wave (C), that started in June 2010. Minor wave 5 is unfolding as a triple zigzag with the last part of the third zigzag still to come. The upside target is 1484 for the S&P 500 and 13750 for the DJIA.

In the midst of the mixed mood environment are undercurrents of bearish social mood, which is most clearly seen in the DJIA / gold ratio. As the chart below shows, the DJIA in terms of real money is in a very clear down-trend with a series of lower lows and lower highs throughout the Obama Administration Period so far:

The decline in the DJIA / gold ratio also explains why Obama's approval rating displayed a long term down-trend. In addition, the most recent polls are painting a mixed picture, with some polls putting Obama ahead and some putting Romney ahead.

Intrade is currently projecting a 62% chance that Obama will win a second term, although some such as Nate Silver is currently projecting a 73% chance that Obama will win. It will be a close election, with Mitt Romney reaching 250+ electoral votes (it could possibly go as high as 260), but California, Oregon, and Washington will put Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win once voting is completed in those three states.

The last two cases of a president winning a second term during a bear market rally was Bush 43 in the 2004 election and Richard Nixon winning a second term in 1972 with the mixed mood environment in play as a result of Primary wave [D] up of a Cycle degree triangle, Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974). Obama is on course to win a second term on November 6, 2012.

It is perhaps instructive to look back and realize that both Bush 43 and Nixon declined in popularity during their second term. Bush 43 saw his approval rating plunge to 25% in the wake of the "Panic of 2008" and Richard Nixon was pressured out of office less than 2 years later due to scandal. If the forecast for a Primary degree decline from 2012 to 2016 is correct, than Obama will face the same fate as Bush 43 with social mood becoming increasingly bearish, culminating in a wave of voter anger that makes conditions ripe for someone like Michele Bachmann or Paul Ryan to rise to power as the next president of the United States in the 2016 election.

President Obama's approval rating will likely plunge soon after the elections taking place. In the midst of all the talk about a "fiscal cliff" in economic policy that has been dubbed "Taxmageddon" and is set to be reached in January 2013, there is another cliff that we are approaching, and that is the end of a 2 year rising bearish wedge in the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Wilshire 5000. The resolution of the wedge pattern is expected to be relatively swift with the full retracement of the wedge expected to be completed in June 2013.

Here is a chart of the wedge and the drop-off that follows:

Labelled on the chart is President Obama's approval rating at important junctures. At the May 2011 high, when the DJIA reached 12876, President Obama's approval rating briefly reached 61% in the aftermath of the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Just 5 months later, at the low of Minor wave 2 down within the larger wedge, the United States was downgraded by Standard and Poors from AAA to AA+, and Obama's approval rating reached a low of 38%. As the peak of the bear market rally approaches, Obama's approval rating has only partially rebounded from the October 2011 low and is currently at 48%.

The expectation is for Obama's approval rating to take a massive plunge downward as the retracement of the rising bearish wedge unfolds. The forecast is for Obama's approval rating to fall to a low of 28% to 32% by June 2013. The sudden decline in social mood starting in mid November 2012 points to a scenario where there is no resolution on the "fiscal cliff" at all due to strife and discord between Obama, John Boehner, Harry Reid, and Mitch McConnell, which could result in another downgrade on the credit rating of the United States.

Journey to the (Primary Degree) Peak

There are now a number of compelling signs that a Primary degree top has already put in or will be registered in the very near future. Both the internal market indicators and the social mood indicators are suggesting that a peak has already happened or will shortly. The S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 reached new 2012 highs, exceeding the April / May 2012 highs. The DJIA has yet to confirm the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 higher, but given the tendency for the three indexes to have "similar wave paths", it is quite likely that the DJIA will confirm the other two indexes higher.

The longer term outlook for the 2009 - 2021 period is still intact, with Supercycle wave (a) (2000 - 2042) down unfolding as a complex W - X - Y structure and Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) up in progress.

The most likely wave count for the S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, and most likely the DJIA as well, is a 3 year zigzag with an ending diagonal for Intermediate wave (C), as the previous main count was invalidated with a new 2012 high in the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000. Here is a chart showing the revised wave count in the context of the larger Cycle wave x structure in the S&P 500:

The revised wave count still works within the larger Cycle degree structure, with Primary wave [W] up (nearing its end) lasting 3 years, which would then be followed by Primary wave [X] down from 2012 to 2016, lasting 4 years, then Primary wave [Y] up from 2016 to 2021, lasting 5 years. Cycle wave x would then be a complex (zigzag - double zigzag - expanded flat) structure. 4 years is enough time for the DJIA to fall from 13300 to 5500 and for the S&P 500 to fall from 1430+ to 550, and each of the Primary degree sub-waves that compose Cycle wave x are reasonably comparable to each other in price movement and duration, as well as Cycle wave x (2009 - 2021) being reasonably comparable to Cycle wave w (2000 - 2009) in duration.

However, the previous main count is still working very well for the NYSE Composite as well as the DAX and the FTSE 100. Along side the Wilshire 5000, the NYSE Composite is a market index composed of a large cross-section of corporations and businesses and thus is a broad measure of social mood. The NYSE Composite is in a bearish intra-market divergence with the Wilshire 5000 and the S&P 500, indicating a fractured market.

Here is a chart of the NYSE Composite from 2005 to 2021:

Upside momentum is clearly on the decline, not only with bearish intra-market divergences taking place (the 2012 high in the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 5000 is not confirmed by the NYSE Composite, the Transports, the DAX, the CAC-40, or the FTSE 100), but the rally is being carried by fewer stocks. A substantial part of the recent rally in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 can be attributed to the "Apple Bubble" as well as a social media bubble that is now bursting with the decline of Facebook in progress.

There are also a number of social mood indicators that are signalling a significant top in the markets:

1 -- The first "Magazine Cover Indicator" event took place with "Dow 15000" appearing on the February 13, 2012 cover of Barron's magazine. With the rally from the March 2009 lows losing much of its momentum and with bullish sentiment already in the stratosphere, this event is a significant sell signal for the markets.

2 -- In early August 2012, Mitt Romney called for more bull market in the economy and the job market. This is another very strong peaking signal as politicians are always the last people to act on a trend, and for that matter, the last people to extrapolate a trend. This event is in the same league as the Federal Reserve Chairman saying that "rates will remain low through 2014".

3 -- The second "Magazine Cover Indicator" event took place with the bull market portrayed as unstoppable and invincible on the September 3, 2012 cover of Barron's magazine. Now that everyone is convinced that the "bull market" is unstoppable, the uptrend in the markets from the March 2009 lows is fully played out and ripe for a reversal.

4 -- Just three days later, on September 6, 2012, Vice President Joe Biden declared that "America has turned the corner" on the job market and the economy, saying that "America's best days are ahead of us". This is yet another instance of politicians extrapolating a trend and "predicting the present". Unlike Mitt Romney, Joe Biden has virtually no business experience, so this event is even more significant. The job creation trend has played out for a long enough time that it has become intuitive even for politicians to extrapolate the trend.  America's best days are indeed ahead of us, but those days won't come until the Grand Supercycle degree bear market that started unfolding in 2000, and the associated major depression in the economy, is completed.

The journey to the top of the (Primary degree) peak in the markets have been marked by extreme bullishness, as well as magazine cover indicator events and politicians calling for more bull market in the economy and job market, thereby extrapolating a trend by "predicting the present". These events, along with bearish intra-market divergences and declining momentum, all point to a major reversal ahead.