All eyes have been focused on this year's 100 year storm known as Hurricane Sandy, which peaked at Category 2 strength before making landfall in New Jersey with 80 mph winds. The hurricane has been labelled as "Frankenstorm" by a number of people, seeing the storm as a product of warmer than usual water off the Atlantic coast and man-made global warming that is just now starting to take effect.
The hurricane has already moved inland and the damage from the storm is only just now starting to become apparent. In many areas, the damage is one for the record books:
1 -- The storm left 8.6 million people without power, mostly in New Jersey and New York.
2 -- New York City went dark with the lights out in Manhattan as storm surges reach a record 13.88 feet with many downtown streets flooded before receding.
3 -- Gasoline shortages have come up in New Jersey in the aftermath of the storm.
4 -- Property damage is already estimated to be $20 billion or more with more surveying of the aftermath still taking place. The numbers could be much higher, in the order of $50 billion, once the dust settles. This would make Hurricane Sandy one of the most expensive natural disasters in US history.
5 -- The NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges were closed for 2 days, the first 2 day closure due to weather since 1888. Trading resumed today with markets mostly trading in a narrow range.
The storm was over 1000 miles in diameter at its peak with hurricane force winds as far as 175 miles from the center and tropical force winds as far as 500 miles from the center. Some areas in West Virginia received up to 3 feet of snow, Maryland was hit by a massive blizzard and even the Great Lakes area was affected with winds as high as 60 mph in Chicago with waves over 30 feet high. This is the second year in a row that the northern Atlantic coast was hit with hurricane force winds (see this post about Hurricane Irene and its aftermath last year). Before Hurricane Irene, one would have to go all the way back to 1954 to find a comparable event, when Hurricane Hazel struck the same region of the Atlantic coast. Going even farther back, no comparable event is found until 1888, when the Great Blizzard of 1888 struck.
Having the same area hit by a 100 year storm 2 years in a row can only be due to the effects of man made climate change that is now starting to kick in as a result of the abuse of fossil fuels that has been taking place for many decades. Even with the evidence mounting that man made global warming is for real, there is still evidence that people in the political, business, and corporate world are still in denial (and will be for many more decades):
1 -- The Obama Administration continues pushing forward with the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, with many protesters arrested. The arrest of people protesting the Keystone XL project was taken to the next level with the arrest of Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, who has been critical of both Obama and Romney on energy policy.
2 -- Lobbyists for the coal industry go on a massive ad buying spree advertising the benefits of coal exports with much of the coal slated to enter Chinese markets. The result is greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere at an accelerated clip.
3 -- The mainstream media continues to be in denial over the reality of man made climate change, as climate change is not even brought up at all even as news coverage on the storm and its aftermath continue around the clock. The same is true with newspaper coverage in which there is a lot of coverage on the storm, but no mention of climate change.
4 -- Oil companies are in full denial over the reality of climate change as evidenced by an oil capacity construction boom in which efforts are under way to increase oil production capacity to 110 million barrels a day by 2020. The increased oil production capacity is projected to raise the planet's average temperature by as much as 8 degrees Celsius.
During bull markets (when social mood is trending positive), governments have no problem coming up with the money to rebuild in the aftermath of disaster and helping affected communities get back on their feet. It is another matter when a long term bear market is unfolding. During long term bear markets, governments are constrained by budget cuts, tax revenue drying up, and the general mindset that comes with negative social mood, namely, limits and conservation. It is especially the case when a deflationary collapse is unfolding in full force. We are already getting a taste of the implications of trying to rebuild communities affected by natural disaster during a long term bear market.
Last year, in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, Rep. Ron Paul was quoted as saying "there is no magic with FEMA" and House Rep. Eric Cantor wanted the cost of disaster relief to be offset with cuts elsewhere. At that point, I had made a forecast concerning FEMA:
It would not at all be farfetched if FEMA were abolished altogether in 2017 during the Bachmann Administration Period under the pretense of balancing the budget.
There is already evidence that this forecast is on track to being fulfilled in 2017. Mitt Romney is now on record for wanting to cut FEMA out of federal spending, sending the responsibility of disaster relief to the states, under the pretense of balancing the budget, having made the plan known during a GOP Primary debate. Mitt Romney labelled spending on disaster relief as "immoral" during the debate, saying that deficit reduction and debt reduction have higher priority. Austerity measures that are set to kick in due to the "fiscal cliff" will also compromise FEMA's ability to respond to natural disasters with a loss of $878 million in annual funding in the pipeline.
The ability of government to respond to natural disasters is an issue that people should be thinking about, considering that one of the implications of "The Great Deflation" is budget cuts at all levels of government. In particular, if a major hurricane were to strike a populated area during the third phase of "The Great Deflation" (Cycle wave y down (2021 - 2042) of Supercycle wave (a) down (2000 - 2042)), the affected areas will very likely be on their own with power remaining shut down for a number of years and rebuilding efforts in the affected areas delayed for years (if not a decade or more) due to austerity measures in play during that time.
On the longer term, Hurricane Sandy is a harbinger of the effects of climate change that will play out during "The Great Tribulation" (Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118)). The worst of man made global warming is very likely to unfold during that time, possibly with the Atlantic coast hit with hurricanes of Category 5+ on an annual basis. There is already recognition among scientists that man made global warming is for real. It will be a very long time before people in the political, business, and corporate world, along with the mainstream media, finally come to a recognition that man made global warming is for real -- that point should occur when the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) is reached and result in the "Global Warming Panic". By then, the full force of the effects of climate change will already be playing out throughout the world.
Showing posts with label The Great Tribulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Great Tribulation. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Saturday, June 30, 2012
More Precursors of Climate Change
As with last year, we continue to see more and more precursors of the coming climate change even as people continue to remain complacent on the issue. The effects of man-made climate change that we are seeing now is just a preview of what we will see during "The Great Tribulation" when the effects of man-made climate change start unfolding in full force.
As I demonstrated here and here, man-made global warming unfolding in full force will be one of the defining characteristics of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) within Grand Supercycle wave [IV], which is one of the big reasons why the term "The Great Tribulation" is warranted.
Recent events in the Unites States sets the scene for the effects of man-made global warming:
1 -- A number of massive wildfires are burning out of control in Colorado, causing the evacuation of 32000 people from a number of small communities along the Waldo Canyon area. The wildfires started on June 9, 2012 mostly from lightning strikes. The fires have burned over 200,000 acres and destroyed over 600 homes. The massive wildfire was made possible by a lack of precipitation as the area received only 13% of normal precipitation during the 2011-2012 winter. A few days ago, President Obama toured the state and sent in federal resources to battle the fires.
2 -- After one of the warmest springs on record, a large portion of southern and central United States is currently being plagued by a scorching heat wave with over 1000 records falling so far. There are a few people that are recognizing the connection between rising temperatures and man made climate change with NBC Washington's chief meteorologist commenting "if we did not have global warming, we would not be seeing this".
3 -- It's still early in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, but there is already damage being done. Rising temperatures are not the only consequence of global warming, as recently demonstrated with Tropical Storm Debby (2012) drenching the Florida coast with over 2 feet of rain and causing massive flooding and opening up numerous sinkholes.
As the abuse of resources, particularly fossil fuels, continues to take place under the political influence of the Koch-ALEC cabal for the sake of making a larger profit, the cumulative effects of unrestrained consumption of fossil fuels continues to unfold. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Arctic recently exceeded 400 parts per million. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 275 parts per million at the start of the late Industrial Revolution (Supercycle wave (III) up (1859 - 1929)). It is very likely that the abuse of resources will continue unabated until the oil supply crash takes place in 2017.
The "Green Technology Revolution" will affect the timing of when the full force of man made global warming will unfold as alternative energy becomes the dominant source of energy in Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea as Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) unfolds. Utilization of alternative energy will slow down the progression of man made climate change with less carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere. As demonstrated in an earlier post, alternative energy will never get a foothold in the United States due to the strong political influence of Koch Industries and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), so the abuse of fossil fuels (particularly coal) is expected to continue in the United States throughout Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) and even a portion of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) as well.
There is already recognition of the reality of man made global warming amongst the scientists. Unfortunately, it will be a very long time before everyone else realizes that man made global warming is real. Here is a long term chart of the DJIA showing when the "point of recognition" will come:
It is very likely that the "point of recognition" associated with man made global warming will take place at the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) within the larger Supercycle wave (c) down. The "point of recognition" will result in the "Global Warming Panic" in 2078 as people finally realize that global warming is for real.
We are a long way from the "point of recognition". As recent news demonstrates, the vast majority of people are still in denial when it comes to the reality of global warming:
1 -- The Rio + 20 summit, which was supposed to hammer out solutions to the coming climate crisis, ended in a complete failure with nothing accomplished.
2 -- There is denial even at the White House, as demonstrated by President Obama's recent approval for building the southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline and the approval of offshore oil drilling in the Arctic with the belief that an oil spill could never happen.
3 -- The Chamber of Commerce and utility companies are actively waging a campaign against increasing renewable energy standards in Michigan. This is likely just one of many such campaign battles being fought to stop alternative energy from getting a foothold anywhere in the United States.
The implications of man made climate change are very real. As the full force of climate change unfolds, the global availability of arable land will eventually be affected. During Supercycle wave (c) down, it is very likely that nations will go to war to secure control over arable land and habitable land. The possibility of war as a consequence of climate change has been discussed in an article titled "Memorial Day 2030". This would not be the first time that civilization would be dramatically affected by climate change -- Recent archeological evidence points to climate change as the primary cause of the fall of the ancient Indus civilization between 3900 and 3000 years ago.
The effects of man made climate change will almost certainly continue well into Grand Supercycle wave [V] up (2118 - 2296) with sea levels continuing to rise during that time. However, it is very likely that positive social mood during that time will allow human civilization to adapt to the changing climate.
As I demonstrated here and here, man-made global warming unfolding in full force will be one of the defining characteristics of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) within Grand Supercycle wave [IV], which is one of the big reasons why the term "The Great Tribulation" is warranted.
Recent events in the Unites States sets the scene for the effects of man-made global warming:
1 -- A number of massive wildfires are burning out of control in Colorado, causing the evacuation of 32000 people from a number of small communities along the Waldo Canyon area. The wildfires started on June 9, 2012 mostly from lightning strikes. The fires have burned over 200,000 acres and destroyed over 600 homes. The massive wildfire was made possible by a lack of precipitation as the area received only 13% of normal precipitation during the 2011-2012 winter. A few days ago, President Obama toured the state and sent in federal resources to battle the fires.
2 -- After one of the warmest springs on record, a large portion of southern and central United States is currently being plagued by a scorching heat wave with over 1000 records falling so far. There are a few people that are recognizing the connection between rising temperatures and man made climate change with NBC Washington's chief meteorologist commenting "if we did not have global warming, we would not be seeing this".
3 -- It's still early in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, but there is already damage being done. Rising temperatures are not the only consequence of global warming, as recently demonstrated with Tropical Storm Debby (2012) drenching the Florida coast with over 2 feet of rain and causing massive flooding and opening up numerous sinkholes.
As the abuse of resources, particularly fossil fuels, continues to take place under the political influence of the Koch-ALEC cabal for the sake of making a larger profit, the cumulative effects of unrestrained consumption of fossil fuels continues to unfold. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the Arctic recently exceeded 400 parts per million. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 275 parts per million at the start of the late Industrial Revolution (Supercycle wave (III) up (1859 - 1929)). It is very likely that the abuse of resources will continue unabated until the oil supply crash takes place in 2017.
The "Green Technology Revolution" will affect the timing of when the full force of man made global warming will unfold as alternative energy becomes the dominant source of energy in Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea as Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) unfolds. Utilization of alternative energy will slow down the progression of man made climate change with less carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere. As demonstrated in an earlier post, alternative energy will never get a foothold in the United States due to the strong political influence of Koch Industries and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), so the abuse of fossil fuels (particularly coal) is expected to continue in the United States throughout Supercycle wave (b) up (2042 - 2076) and even a portion of Supercycle wave (c) down (2076 - 2118) as well.
There is already recognition of the reality of man made global warming amongst the scientists. Unfortunately, it will be a very long time before everyone else realizes that man made global warming is real. Here is a long term chart of the DJIA showing when the "point of recognition" will come:
It is very likely that the "point of recognition" associated with man made global warming will take place at the center of Cycle wave I down (2076 - 2082) within the larger Supercycle wave (c) down. The "point of recognition" will result in the "Global Warming Panic" in 2078 as people finally realize that global warming is for real.
We are a long way from the "point of recognition". As recent news demonstrates, the vast majority of people are still in denial when it comes to the reality of global warming:
1 -- The Rio + 20 summit, which was supposed to hammer out solutions to the coming climate crisis, ended in a complete failure with nothing accomplished.
2 -- There is denial even at the White House, as demonstrated by President Obama's recent approval for building the southern portion of the Keystone XL pipeline and the approval of offshore oil drilling in the Arctic with the belief that an oil spill could never happen.
3 -- The Chamber of Commerce and utility companies are actively waging a campaign against increasing renewable energy standards in Michigan. This is likely just one of many such campaign battles being fought to stop alternative energy from getting a foothold anywhere in the United States.
The implications of man made climate change are very real. As the full force of climate change unfolds, the global availability of arable land will eventually be affected. During Supercycle wave (c) down, it is very likely that nations will go to war to secure control over arable land and habitable land. The possibility of war as a consequence of climate change has been discussed in an article titled "Memorial Day 2030". This would not be the first time that civilization would be dramatically affected by climate change -- Recent archeological evidence points to climate change as the primary cause of the fall of the ancient Indus civilization between 3900 and 3000 years ago.
The effects of man made climate change will almost certainly continue well into Grand Supercycle wave [V] up (2118 - 2296) with sea levels continuing to rise during that time. However, it is very likely that positive social mood during that time will allow human civilization to adapt to the changing climate.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Precursors of the Great Tribulation Climax
The bear market is already bringing back the fear of a future conflict between the United States and Russia even as the climax of the tensions between the two countries is still over 40 years in the future. The precursors are currently small and trivial as we are still in the early part of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market.
After the Cold War ended in 1991, rising social mood had kept the tensions between the United States and Russia at bay. The Cold War started in 1946 in the immediate aftermath of World War II. The end of the Cold War corresponds with the beginning of Primary wave [5] of Cycle wave V (1974 - 2000) up in the S&5 500 index. Although the Cold War persisted for 45 years, the most significant events unfolded during the largest social mood declines:
1 -- Primary wave [2] of Cycle wave III (1942 - 1966) up is associated with the Berlin Blockade, the Marshall Plan, and the Czechoslovak coup d'etat.
2 -- Primary wave [4] of Cycle wave III (1942 - 1966) up is associated with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
3 -- Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974) down is associated with the Prague Spring and the subsequent Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. A short time later, the Soviet Union introduced the Brezhnev Doctrine to justify putting an end to democratic liberalization efforts in the Eastern bloc.
4 -- Primary wave [2] of Cycle wave V (1974 - 2000) up is associated with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Reagan Doctrine in which Ronald Reagan labelled the Soviet Union as an "Evil Empire".
The Cold War also resulted in an arms race in which both the United States and the Soviet Union bolstered their nuclear weapons arsenals, and it resulted in a number of proxy wars in the third world.
The bear market is already bringing back the fear of a future conflict between the United States and Russia. The developments are trivial, but they likely foreshadow what is yet to come:
1 -- The popular video game Call of Duty : Modern Warfare 3 revolves around the story of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia in 2016 - 2017.
2 -- The movie Mission Impossible : Ghost Protocol also revolves around a conflict between the United States and Russia.
The United States is not the only country on the planet that is expanding its military-industrial complex. Russia is also modernizing its military capabilities as well, which could easily foreshadow future tensions between the United States and Russia in the future. The latest development is Russia working on a monster missile in response to US missile defense plans.
Bear markets of Supercycle degree and above always result in a war, an a 4000+ year historical perspective bears this out. Wars are associated with the largest "C" waves in a bear market, which in the case of the current bear market, would be "The Great Tribulation" (Supercycle wave (c)). The current bear market will result in World War III, which will start during Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV]. During that time, both the United States and Russia will be in a state of war -- for the United States, it will be about the war on terror, for Russia, it will be about reclaiming lost territory and bringing back the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. It is very likely that Iran will be the flash point that causes extreme tension between the two nations as Iran is allied with Russia.
It is perhaps very fortunate that the bear market isn't larger than Grand Supercycle degree. A Millennium degree bear market would have resulted in a limited nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia, with a 5 - 20 year nuclear winter to follow. A Super Millennium degree bear market would have resulted in a full scale nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia, causing a nuclear holocaust and a nuclear winter lasting 100+ years.
As "The Great Tribulation" reaches its climax, the bear market is expected to result in extreme tensions between the United States and Russia with the most dangerous game of chicken in the history of human civilization creating a global atmosphere of debilitating fear. The fear of an armed conflict will reach its climax in the 2052 - 2060 time frame as the bear market low point approaches. One can imagine the news in the mainstream media and the political world in 2055:
"A war between the United States and Russia is the harbinger of a new dark age for human civilization"
There will be a lot of tough talk, a lot of aggressive posturing, and a lot of saber rattling between the two nations during the last part of "The Great Tribulation", but no actual conflict is expected to take place.
After the Cold War ended in 1991, rising social mood had kept the tensions between the United States and Russia at bay. The Cold War started in 1946 in the immediate aftermath of World War II. The end of the Cold War corresponds with the beginning of Primary wave [5] of Cycle wave V (1974 - 2000) up in the S&5 500 index. Although the Cold War persisted for 45 years, the most significant events unfolded during the largest social mood declines:
1 -- Primary wave [2] of Cycle wave III (1942 - 1966) up is associated with the Berlin Blockade, the Marshall Plan, and the Czechoslovak coup d'etat.
2 -- Primary wave [4] of Cycle wave III (1942 - 1966) up is associated with the Cuban Missile Crisis.
3 -- Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974) down is associated with the Prague Spring and the subsequent Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. A short time later, the Soviet Union introduced the Brezhnev Doctrine to justify putting an end to democratic liberalization efforts in the Eastern bloc.
4 -- Primary wave [2] of Cycle wave V (1974 - 2000) up is associated with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Reagan Doctrine in which Ronald Reagan labelled the Soviet Union as an "Evil Empire".
The Cold War also resulted in an arms race in which both the United States and the Soviet Union bolstered their nuclear weapons arsenals, and it resulted in a number of proxy wars in the third world.
The bear market is already bringing back the fear of a future conflict between the United States and Russia. The developments are trivial, but they likely foreshadow what is yet to come:
1 -- The popular video game Call of Duty : Modern Warfare 3 revolves around the story of an armed conflict between the United States and Russia in 2016 - 2017.
2 -- The movie Mission Impossible : Ghost Protocol also revolves around a conflict between the United States and Russia.
The United States is not the only country on the planet that is expanding its military-industrial complex. Russia is also modernizing its military capabilities as well, which could easily foreshadow future tensions between the United States and Russia in the future. The latest development is Russia working on a monster missile in response to US missile defense plans.
Bear markets of Supercycle degree and above always result in a war, an a 4000+ year historical perspective bears this out. Wars are associated with the largest "C" waves in a bear market, which in the case of the current bear market, would be "The Great Tribulation" (Supercycle wave (c)). The current bear market will result in World War III, which will start during Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV]. During that time, both the United States and Russia will be in a state of war -- for the United States, it will be about the war on terror, for Russia, it will be about reclaiming lost territory and bringing back the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. It is very likely that Iran will be the flash point that causes extreme tension between the two nations as Iran is allied with Russia.
It is perhaps very fortunate that the bear market isn't larger than Grand Supercycle degree. A Millennium degree bear market would have resulted in a limited nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia, with a 5 - 20 year nuclear winter to follow. A Super Millennium degree bear market would have resulted in a full scale nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia, causing a nuclear holocaust and a nuclear winter lasting 100+ years.
As "The Great Tribulation" reaches its climax, the bear market is expected to result in extreme tensions between the United States and Russia with the most dangerous game of chicken in the history of human civilization creating a global atmosphere of debilitating fear. The fear of an armed conflict will reach its climax in the 2052 - 2060 time frame as the bear market low point approaches. One can imagine the news in the mainstream media and the political world in 2055:
"A war between the United States and Russia is the harbinger of a new dark age for human civilization"
There will be a lot of tough talk, a lot of aggressive posturing, and a lot of saber rattling between the two nations during the last part of "The Great Tribulation", but no actual conflict is expected to take place.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Another view of the Great Tribulation
Another aspect of "The Great Tribulation" that is going to have a profound effect on virtually everyone in the United States from 2042 - 2055 -- Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] -- is the dark side of Christianity manifesting itself in ways not seen since the Dark Ages.
We are already seeing precursor events that indicate that the dark side of Christianity will be out in full display, as current trends are going in that direction. We have already seen a number of precursor events showing the dark side of Christianity at work with the Tiller assassination, Park 51, the Abu Ghraib abuses, and the Guantanamo Bay waterboarding scandal of 2005.
Religious intolerance is a characteristic of bear markets as negative social mood has the effect of fostering conflict and friction between groups. Christians are affected by the social mood of the larger population as any group of people are, and bear markets result in Christians becoming intolerant of other populations. The magnitude of the intolerance is commensurate to the degree of the bear market as examples listed below illustrate.
Primary degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of heated court battles. The court cases, McLean v Arkansas and Edwards v Aguillard, which involved a creationism vs evolution dispute, both took place during Primary wave [2] (1977 - 1982).
Cycle degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of a massive wave of hate crimes and large scale intimidation, such as the rise of the Ku Klux Klan during Cycle wave IV (1918 - 1921) as the organization opposed unions and employment opportunities for minorities, and again during Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974) when the organization was involved in large scale intimidation against minorities.
Supercycle degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of mass purges, such as the Holocaust that is associated with Supercycle wave (IV).
We are in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, so one can only imagine the magnitude of the atrocities that are about to be committed by Christians during "The Great Tribulation". The most likely scenario is that Christians take complete control of the United States government at all levels in the 2044 elections, then proceed to commit atrocities not seen since the Dark Ages with the bear market bringing back large scale witch hunts and the crusades (a smaller version of the Crusades that took place from 1095 to 1291, but it will still be extensive in its own right.) in addition to the types of atrocities that took place in Nazi Germany.
The worst of the atrocities are most likely start in 2045 and continue until perhaps 2060.
In the near term, expect the attitude of Christians towards other groups of people to change from friendly (as it is now during a peak in social mood) to neutral in 2012, and then change to hostile by 2015. Individuals will be able to buck the trend and continue to value human life, but don't expect churches to do so.
We are already seeing precursor events that indicate that the dark side of Christianity will be out in full display, as current trends are going in that direction. We have already seen a number of precursor events showing the dark side of Christianity at work with the Tiller assassination, Park 51, the Abu Ghraib abuses, and the Guantanamo Bay waterboarding scandal of 2005.
Religious intolerance is a characteristic of bear markets as negative social mood has the effect of fostering conflict and friction between groups. Christians are affected by the social mood of the larger population as any group of people are, and bear markets result in Christians becoming intolerant of other populations. The magnitude of the intolerance is commensurate to the degree of the bear market as examples listed below illustrate.
Primary degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of heated court battles. The court cases, McLean v Arkansas and Edwards v Aguillard, which involved a creationism vs evolution dispute, both took place during Primary wave [2] (1977 - 1982).
Cycle degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of a massive wave of hate crimes and large scale intimidation, such as the rise of the Ku Klux Klan during Cycle wave IV (1918 - 1921) as the organization opposed unions and employment opportunities for minorities, and again during Cycle wave IV (1966 - 1974) when the organization was involved in large scale intimidation against minorities.
Supercycle degree bear market -- intolerance unfolds in the form of mass purges, such as the Holocaust that is associated with Supercycle wave (IV).
We are in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, so one can only imagine the magnitude of the atrocities that are about to be committed by Christians during "The Great Tribulation". The most likely scenario is that Christians take complete control of the United States government at all levels in the 2044 elections, then proceed to commit atrocities not seen since the Dark Ages with the bear market bringing back large scale witch hunts and the crusades (a smaller version of the Crusades that took place from 1095 to 1291, but it will still be extensive in its own right.) in addition to the types of atrocities that took place in Nazi Germany.
The worst of the atrocities are most likely start in 2045 and continue until perhaps 2060.
In the near term, expect the attitude of Christians towards other groups of people to change from friendly (as it is now during a peak in social mood) to neutral in 2012, and then change to hostile by 2015. Individuals will be able to buck the trend and continue to value human life, but don't expect churches to do so.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Global Warming during the Great Tribulation
Global warming is one of the issues that human civilization will have to deal with during "The Great Tribulation". There is already awareness of the issue among scientists, as well as the potential implications of climate change on the food supply and arable land.
Global warming and climate change were not an issue the last time we were in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, even during 1770 - 1784 (Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [II]). It is an issue that we will be facing in the future as a consequence of the excessive use of fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas. The burning of fossil fuels results in the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere and resulting in global warming.
There has been many warnings from scientists about the implications of staying the course on excessive use of fossil fuels. Even Hollywood has gotten into the fray as well with the release of The Day After Tomorrow in 2004, which imagines destructive weather of unprecedented magnitude unfolding as a result of climate change. Yet, the warnings continue to be ignored by many people and even the Obama Administration didn't make an effort to address the issue when there was an opportunity to do so with a large majority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate in 2009. Human civilization will end up learning the importance of clean energy the hard way in the coming years and decades, especially in the United States.
The implications of global warming has been examined by a number of scientists, such as the article Memorial Day 2030 from Climate Progress. The timing will be affected by an emerging "green technology" industry that will start to take hold after "The Great Deflation" ends, giving rise to the "Green Technology Age" (identified as Supercycle wave (b) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV]) which will start in 2021 and end in 2042. The rise of a green technology industry will slow down the rate that greenhouse gases are accumulated in the atmosphere, which will ultimately affect the timing of when the effects of climate change will start having a substantial impact on human civilization.
It will be around 30 years or so before climate change will have a substantial impact on human civilization. We are starting to see some hints of the effects of climate change in the future. Just this year, we got some of the most extreme weather in many decades take place, with the 2011 Mississippi River floods, the 2011 Super Outbreak (of tornadoes), and most recently, the 2011 Joplin tornado.
Given the negative social mood that will be present during "The Great Tribulation", food shortages and increasing scarcity of arable land, both caused by climate change, could easily be used as a justification for starting a war. Wars generally erupt during the largest C waves of bear markets of Primary degree and above, and history (going all the way back to 1200 BC) indicates that Grand Supercycle degree bear markets always result in war. The period of "The Great Tribulation", identified as Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV], would be a time when wars over resources would erupt.
There is a lot of skepticism about global warming and climate change now, but I predict that a "point of recognition" will take place in 2043, which will take the form of a "Global warming panic". This would be the center of Cycle wave I down during "The Great Tribulation". At that time, it will be impossible for people to dismiss the reality of man made global warming due to the impact of extreme weather that will be unfolding during that time.
Look for governments to make some very hard choices about the use of fossil fuels and the use of green technology during the first few years of the next bull market, Grand Supercycle wave [V]. The effects of climate change will remain well after "The Great Tribulation" ends, but with the hard choices that governments will make during 2055 - 2058, the planet's climate will slowly return to normal over many decades during the bull market that will unfold.
Global warming and climate change were not an issue the last time we were in a Grand Supercycle degree bear market, even during 1770 - 1784 (Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [II]). It is an issue that we will be facing in the future as a consequence of the excessive use of fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas. The burning of fossil fuels results in the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere and resulting in global warming.
There has been many warnings from scientists about the implications of staying the course on excessive use of fossil fuels. Even Hollywood has gotten into the fray as well with the release of The Day After Tomorrow in 2004, which imagines destructive weather of unprecedented magnitude unfolding as a result of climate change. Yet, the warnings continue to be ignored by many people and even the Obama Administration didn't make an effort to address the issue when there was an opportunity to do so with a large majority in the House and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate in 2009. Human civilization will end up learning the importance of clean energy the hard way in the coming years and decades, especially in the United States.
The implications of global warming has been examined by a number of scientists, such as the article Memorial Day 2030 from Climate Progress. The timing will be affected by an emerging "green technology" industry that will start to take hold after "The Great Deflation" ends, giving rise to the "Green Technology Age" (identified as Supercycle wave (b) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV]) which will start in 2021 and end in 2042. The rise of a green technology industry will slow down the rate that greenhouse gases are accumulated in the atmosphere, which will ultimately affect the timing of when the effects of climate change will start having a substantial impact on human civilization.
It will be around 30 years or so before climate change will have a substantial impact on human civilization. We are starting to see some hints of the effects of climate change in the future. Just this year, we got some of the most extreme weather in many decades take place, with the 2011 Mississippi River floods, the 2011 Super Outbreak (of tornadoes), and most recently, the 2011 Joplin tornado.
Given the negative social mood that will be present during "The Great Tribulation", food shortages and increasing scarcity of arable land, both caused by climate change, could easily be used as a justification for starting a war. Wars generally erupt during the largest C waves of bear markets of Primary degree and above, and history (going all the way back to 1200 BC) indicates that Grand Supercycle degree bear markets always result in war. The period of "The Great Tribulation", identified as Supercycle wave (c) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV], would be a time when wars over resources would erupt.
There is a lot of skepticism about global warming and climate change now, but I predict that a "point of recognition" will take place in 2043, which will take the form of a "Global warming panic". This would be the center of Cycle wave I down during "The Great Tribulation". At that time, it will be impossible for people to dismiss the reality of man made global warming due to the impact of extreme weather that will be unfolding during that time.
Look for governments to make some very hard choices about the use of fossil fuels and the use of green technology during the first few years of the next bull market, Grand Supercycle wave [V]. The effects of climate change will remain well after "The Great Tribulation" ends, but with the hard choices that governments will make during 2055 - 2058, the planet's climate will slowly return to normal over many decades during the bull market that will unfold.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
A View of the Great Tribulation
The worst part of the Grand Supercycle degree bear market is decades into the future, but we are already starting to see some glimpses of what the period will be like when we get there.
According to Living Planet Report, humans will need two Earths by 2030 if the current trend of resource consumption continues. The trend, however, will change with "The Great Deflation" unfolding in full force in the coming months and years. Resource consumption will greatly slow down during the worst part of "The Great Deflation" which will change the timing of when resource consumption goes critical. The critical event would likely occur in 2042.
The worst part of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] will start in 2042, which would be Supercycle wave (c). In many ways, 2042 - 2055 will be a lot like 1770 - 1784 -- wars, revolutions, uprisings, authoritarianism, and religious persecution, all unfolding on a global scale. However, it will be worse this time around because there are issues that human civilization will be facing that were never an issue back in the 1770 - 1784 period : Global warming, which will cause a lot of havoc on its own, the fear of an asteroid impact (2007 VK184) in 2048, and chronic resource shortages. That's why I refer to the period of Supercycle wave (c) as "The Great Tribulation" as it will be a period of very hard times for humanity.
First of all, a chronic resource shortage will crash the global economy, resulting in manufacturing corporations and businesses closing their doors, which will eventually help push the unemployment rate to 75% (U6) in the United States by 2055, with similar unemployment levels in Europe as well.
Second, a chronic resource shortage will result in a massive chasm between the upper class / rich and everyone else as essential commodities such as food and water get priced out of reach of all but the top 5%.
Given the negative social mood that will be present during "The Great Tribulation", a chronic resource shortage could easily be used as a justification for starting a war. In addition, it could be more than a coincidence that the start of the chronic resource shortage corresponds with the start of Supercycle wave (c), which is the year 2042.
On the long term, I expect that the start of Grand Supercycle wave [V] in 2055 will be characterized by governments making some very hard choices about resource consumption that will help run the global economy in a more resource efficient manner.
According to Living Planet Report, humans will need two Earths by 2030 if the current trend of resource consumption continues. The trend, however, will change with "The Great Deflation" unfolding in full force in the coming months and years. Resource consumption will greatly slow down during the worst part of "The Great Deflation" which will change the timing of when resource consumption goes critical. The critical event would likely occur in 2042.
The worst part of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] will start in 2042, which would be Supercycle wave (c). In many ways, 2042 - 2055 will be a lot like 1770 - 1784 -- wars, revolutions, uprisings, authoritarianism, and religious persecution, all unfolding on a global scale. However, it will be worse this time around because there are issues that human civilization will be facing that were never an issue back in the 1770 - 1784 period : Global warming, which will cause a lot of havoc on its own, the fear of an asteroid impact (2007 VK184) in 2048, and chronic resource shortages. That's why I refer to the period of Supercycle wave (c) as "The Great Tribulation" as it will be a period of very hard times for humanity.
First of all, a chronic resource shortage will crash the global economy, resulting in manufacturing corporations and businesses closing their doors, which will eventually help push the unemployment rate to 75% (U6) in the United States by 2055, with similar unemployment levels in Europe as well.
Second, a chronic resource shortage will result in a massive chasm between the upper class / rich and everyone else as essential commodities such as food and water get priced out of reach of all but the top 5%.
Given the negative social mood that will be present during "The Great Tribulation", a chronic resource shortage could easily be used as a justification for starting a war. In addition, it could be more than a coincidence that the start of the chronic resource shortage corresponds with the start of Supercycle wave (c), which is the year 2042.
On the long term, I expect that the start of Grand Supercycle wave [V] in 2055 will be characterized by governments making some very hard choices about resource consumption that will help run the global economy in a more resource efficient manner.
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